Area #6: Battle-Tested Quality Play
This final area tries to answer the questions about who defeated good opponents and who merely focused on defeating weak opponents. It also focuses on teams’ previous experiences in big-game situations, like postseason games. The table below assesses the 12 playoff teams’ respective quality play by looking at the team rank in five statistical areas. It includes the following:
- Record v. Quality Opponents: This measures the win percentage against teams with a .500 record or better.
- Record v. Playoff-Level Opponents: This measures the win total and percentage against teams that made the postseason.
- Quality Road Wins: This measures the win total on the road against teams with a winning record.
- Playoff Record in the Last 3 Seasons: This measures the win total and percentage in the postseason from 2012 to 2014.
- Double-Digit Win Differential: This measures the net win total in games determined by 10+ points.
There are no changes to last year’s statistical guide in this area. Note that the Record v. Quality Opponents (RQO) rankings are determined solely by win percentage. We did this because we used RQO win percentage for the TABRankings. Meanwhile, the Record v. Playoff-Level Opponents and “Last 3” Playoff Record rankings are determined by wins then win percentage. Finally, note that for the tied ranks, the MEAN NUMBER is considered for the sum to determine the mean rank. For example, a team tied for 16th with two other teams will receive 17 points for the input into the mean rank formula. This is very important to note in this area.
Table 6: Battle-Tested Quality Play Key Stats and Rankings
| Seed | Team | RQO | RPO | QRW | L3 | DDWD | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | 3-4 (t-10th) | 3-4 (t-7th) | 2 (t-1st) | 6-2 (1st) | 6 (t-2nd) | 5.5 (1st) |
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | 7-2 (2nd) | 3-1 (t-4th) | 1 (t-6th) | 5-2 (3rd) | 5 (t-5th) | 5.9 (2nd) |
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | 6-1 (1st) | 4-0 (2nd) | 1 (t-6th) | 1-2 (13th) | 8 (1st) | 6.1 (3rd) |
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | 5-3 (4th) | 5-2 (1st) | 1 (t-6th) | 2-3 (t-6th) | 2 (12th) | 7.4 (4th) |
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | 4-2 (3rd) | 4-2 (3rd) | 1 (t-6th) | 0-1 (t-14th) | 6 (t-2nd) | 7.9 (5th) |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4-4 (t-5th) | 3-4 (t-7th) | 2 (t-1st) | 0-1 (t-14th) | 4 (9th) | 8.8 (6th) |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | 3-4 (t-10th) | 3-4 (t-7th) | 1 (t-6th) | 2-3 (t-6th) | 5 (t-5th) | 9.4 (7th) |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-4 (t-5th) | 3-4 (t-7th) | 1 (t-6th) | 0-1 (t-14th) | 5 (t-5th) | 10.4 (8th) |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-4 (t-5th) | 3-4 (t-7th) | 1 (t-6th) | 0-3 (21st) | 6 (t-2nd) | 10.5 (9th) |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | 3-4 (t-10th) | 2-4 (t-14th) | 1 (t-6th) | 0-1 (t-14th) | 3 (t-10th) | 13.4 (t-10th) |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | 3-6 (t-16th) | 1-3 (18th) | 1 (t-6th) | 1-1 (t-8th) | 3 (t-10th) | 13.9 (12th) |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | 1-4 (27th) | 0-2 (26th) | 0 (t-22nd) | 0-1 (t-14th) | 1 (t-13th) | 24.2 (28th) |
RQO: Ranked by win percentage, RPO and L3: Ranked by wins, then win percentage
Even more so than with scoring efficiency, the ranks for the playoff teams in battle-tested quality play are almost all very high. Only Atlanta missed the playoffs but finished in the Top 12 in this area. That means only one playoff team missed the Top 12, and that was a Washington that was very far away from the Top 12. This disparity is jarring. Washington is basically not tested at all, while the rest all proved their worth on the field. Like with the previous area, the top of the bunch might have an advantage over the bottom of the bunch, but there won’t be much else to note — besides Washington of course. This could be the team’s downfall.