Area #5: Scoring Efficiency
This area focuses on key subsets that greater influence the ability to score or take away scoring opportunities. Factors that impact this area include special teams play, red zone success, third down success and the turnover battle. The table below assesses the 12 playoff teams’ respective scoring efficiency by looking at the team rank in five statistical areas. It includes the following:
- Net Yards per Point Scored: This measures a team’s net efficiency of turning yards into points.
- Relative Scoring Average: This measures a team’s net scoring average relative to opponents’ net scoring average.
- Net Third/Fourth Down Percentage: This measures the ability to move the chains and prevent such in key down-based situations.
- Net Red Zone Percentage: This measure the ability to score touchdowns and prevent such in key field position-based situations.
- Defense-Adjusted Value over Average: This Football Outsiders property measures play-by-play efficiency for special teams.
Note that we made one more minor change to the statistical guide in this study. Instead of using Net Third Down Percentage, which was used for last year’s Four Postseason Factors and this year’s Postseason Team Profiles, we will now also include Net Fourth Down Percentage. Therefore, we will combine two factors, just like we do with the TABRankings formula.
Table 5: Scoring Efficiency Key Stats and Rankings
| Seed | Team | NY/P | RSA | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.53 (9th) | 10.02 (3rd) | 14.53 (1st) | 12.99 (5th) | 4.2% (3rd) | 4.2 (1st) |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.87 (1st) | 9.26 (4th) | 1.40 (13th) | 18.15 (2nd) | 2.2% (9th) | 5.8 (2nd) |
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | 4.36 (4th) | 8.67 (5th) | 4.31 (9th) | 8.43 (9th) | 3.9% (5th) | 6.4 (3rd) |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.28 (2nd) | 7.65 (6th) | 4.59 (8th) | -2.59 (16th) | 2.4% (7th) | 7.8 (4th) |
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | 5.04 (3rd) | 10.64 (2nd) | 3.27 (10th) | 15.75 (3rd) | -2.4 (23rd) | 8.2 (t-5th) |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | 4.17 (5th) | 4.35 (8th) | 2.61 (11th) | 4.76 (13th) | 3.9% (4th) | 8.2 (t-5th) |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | 1.48 (10th) | -0.46 (14th) | 5.09 (7th) | 6.12 (11th) | 3.2% (6th) | 9.6 (7th) |
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.08 (7th) | 10.87 (1st) | 10.30 (2nd) | 5.00 (12th) | -4.0% (29th) | 10.2 (8th) |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.25 (6th) | 7.28 (7th) | -0.42 (18th) | 11.59 (6th) | 0.1% (18th) | 11.0 (10th) |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | 2.62 (8th) | 3.81 (10th) | -1.56 (22nd) | -3.29 (17th) | 0.4% (17th) | 14.8 (13th) |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | -0.55 (17th) | 1.41 (13th) | 8.41 (3rd) | 1.37 (15th) | -5.7% (32nd) | 16.0 (14th) |
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | -0.72 (19th) | 4.33 (9th) | 0.86 (14th) | -11.73 (30th) | 0.7% (14th) | 17.2 (17th) |
Note: Net Third/Fourth Down Percentage replaces Net Third Down Percentage
As expected, all of these teams were fair to great in scoring efficiency. There aren’t any true liabilities in this area, but the teams at the bottom may lag enough in certain match-ups to be at a disadvantage. Besides that, there’s little else to say.