Area #2: Pass Defense
Consider this to be area of the game that can react to or even dictate what opposing pass offenses can do. It’s every bit as important to handle business in this area as it is to be strong in the passing game on offense. The table below assesses the 12 playoff teams’ respective pass offenses by looking at the team rank in five key statistical areas. It includes the following:
- Defensive Passer Rating: This is most concise way to assess passing efficiency. See the NFL passer rating formula for more.
- Net Yards Allowed per Dropback: This focuses on the ability to limit downfield passing, with sacks adjusted to the formula.
- First Down Percentage: This focuses on the ability to prevent teams from moving the chains. This has no ties to passer rating.
- Negative Pass Play Percentage: This is used to focus solely on the ball protection aspect of the pass defense.
- Defense-Adjusted Value over Average: This Football Outsiders property measures play-by-play efficiency in the passing game.
Note that we made the same change to the pass defense as we did before with the pass offense. We noticed that using sacks alone may skew the mean rank too much. For that reason, we added interceptions to the equation. Therefore, Negative Pass Play Percentage calculates interceptions plus sacks over dropbacks.
Table 2: Pass Defense Key Stats and Rankings
| Seed | Team | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | NPP% | DVOA | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | 78.76 (4th) | 5.11 (1st) | 28.27 (1st) | 10.56 (1st) | -28.0% (1st) | 1.6 (1st) |
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | 73.46 (1st) | 5.41 (2nd) | 30.46 (2nd) | 9.80 (5th) | -18.2% (2nd) | 2.4 (2nd) |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 76.00 (2nd) | 5.65 (4th) | 31.80 (7th) | 10.55 (2nd) | -8.6% (5th) | 4.0 (3rd) |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | 82.83 (9th) | 5.63 (3rd) | 31.28 (6th) | 9.87 (4th) | -6.5% (7th) | 5.8 (4th) |
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | 78.11 (3rd) | 5.75 (5th) | 31.93 (8th) | 8.72 (14th) | -9.8% (3rd) | 6.6 (5th) |
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | 80.89 (8th) | 6.05 (9th) | 30.89 (4th) | 9.03 (11th) | -9.4% (4th) | 7.2 (t-6th) |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 78.86 (5th) | 5.78 (6th) | 31.27 (5th) | 9.16 (10th) | -0.9% (10th) | 7.2 (t-6th) |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | 80.11 (7th) | 6.13 (11th) | 33.21 (12th) | 9.93 (3rd) | -6.8% (6th) | 7.8 (9th) |
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | 87.02 (13th) | 5.97 (8th) | 34.23 (16th) | 9.46 (7th) | 5.7% (13th) | 11.4 (10th) |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | 90.04 (15th) | 6.23 (12th) | 33.69 (14th) | 9.28 (8th) | 3.2% (11th) | 12.0 (11th) |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 90.89 (17th) | 6.46 (17th) | 36.96 (26th) | 9.66 (6th) | 5.8 (15th) | 16.2 (14th) |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | 96.11 (22nd) | 6.83 (26th) | 35.69 (20th) | 8.11 (18th) | 13.6% (19th) | 21.0 (22nd) |
Note: Negative Pass Play Percentage replaces Sack Percentage
Looking at this group, it appears that Pass Defense Mean Rank had a better correlation to making the postseason than Pass Offense Mean Rank. If that’s the case, it’s a rarity we should enjoy. Given how much offense dictates the NFL’s game flow these days, it’s been up to the defense to merely survive. The teams that did it best made the playoffs. See the 10 of the top 11 teams in Mean Rank made the postseason, with the next team ranking 14th. This could make the postseason wins quite tough on opposing quarterbacks, even for great ones like Tom Brady or Russell Wilson. Only Washington has the looks of a liability. This is a team that just allowed Kellen Moore to pass for 435 yards on Sunday, and the Mean Rank suggests that it wasn’t just a Week 17 aberration.
Ultimately, it could be opposing pass offenses that help to determine which pass defense units stand out the most. If one of these teams faces a weak offense, it could be time to feast. Meanwhile, if a strong offense is on the slate, we could see an epic battle.