Area #4: Run Defense
Strong run defenses often boil down to strong front seven play and hustle to the football, so we’ll once again include a key stat that focus solely on line play. We need that to help see which teams create rushing imbalance for opposing offenses. The table below assesses the 12 playoff teams’ respective run defenses by looking at the team rank in five statistical areas. It includes the following:
- Defensive Rusher Rating: This uses parallels from passer rating to measure rushing efficiency. This was created by Ken Crippen, President of the Pro Football Researchers Association. See the attached page’s end notes for more on the rusher rating formula.
- Run Yards Allowed per Attempt: This is the simplest way to measure rushing efficiency on defense.
- First Down Percentage: This measures the ability to and efficiency of preventing teams from moving the chains.
- Adjusted Line Yards: This Football Outsiders property measures defensive line run blocking efficiency, based on various measures. See the attached page for a very detailed explanation of how Adjusted Line Yards are calculated.
- Defense-Adjusted Value over Average: This Football Outsiders property measures play-by-play efficiency for the run defense.
Note that we made a similar change to the run defense as we did before with the run offense. Because we switched from Sack Percentage to Negative Pass Play Percentage in the passing game, we no longer need the Defensive Hog Index created by Cold, Hard Football Facts for this analysis. By making this change, we now more accurately separate the pass defense and run defense. Last year, we included “the trenches” with the run game, but that takes away from effectively analyzing the run game itself. The Defensive Hog Index (DHI) included Negative Pass Play Percentage in its formula, which distracts from the run game analysis. (Note that CHFF used DHI to analyze all aspects of defensive line play, so it was simply us misappropriating the stat.)
Table 4: Run Defense Key Stats and Rankings
| Seed | Team | DRR | RYA/A | 1st% | ALY | DVOA | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | 79.99 (4th) | 3.90 (9th) | 21.12 (11th) | 3.05 (2nd) | -24.4% (2nd) | 5.6 (2nd) |
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | 87.59 (14th) | 3.26 (1st) | 19.86 (7th) | 3.08 (3rd) | -22.8% (4th) | 5.8 (3rd) |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 71.26 (2nd) | 3.82 (6th) | 18.59 (2nd) | 3.72 (15th) | -18.8% (5th) | 6.0 (4th) |
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | 84.88 (10th) | 3.88 (7th) | 20.33 (8th) | 3.21 (4th) | -18.7% (6th) | 7.0 (t-5th) |
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | 84.91 (11th) | 3.60 (4th) | 19.61 (5th) | 3.60 (12th) | -22.9% (3rd) | 7.0 (t-5th) |
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | 83.88 (7th) | 3.95 (10th) | 19.40 (4th) | 3.62 (13th) | -16.2% (10th) | 8.8 (8th) |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 82.60 (5th) | 4.10 (16th) | 22.45 (20th) | 3.50 (7th) | -15.5% (11th) | 11.8 (t-10th) |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | 90.60 (17th) | 4.11 (17th) | 20.36 (9th) | 3.52 (9th) | -13.5% (13th) | 13.0 (12th) |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 91.19 (19th) | 4.29 (22nd) | 21.51 (12th) | 3.64 (14th) | -17.2% (8th) | 15.0 (14th) |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | 82.93 (6th) | 4.21 (21st) | 22.87 (23rd) | 4.01 (24th) | -8.1% (18th) | 18.4 (19th) |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | 95.73 (25th) | 4.52 (29th) | 22.86 (22nd) | 3.55 (11th) | -7.9% (19th) | 21.2 (21st) |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | 84.44 (9th) | 4.83 (31st) | 25.37 (30th) | 4.01 (25th) | -5.5% (22nd) | 23.4 (24th) |
Note: Adjusted Line Yards replaces Defensive Hog Index
The top-ranked Jets gave way to the fourth-ranked Steelers in the regular season’s final week, so we see a league-leading unit miss the playoff for the first time in this year’s study. Still, we see six of the top eight run defenses make this group. Three others are on the fringe playoff level, so we can see that most run defense can manage against most opponents. However, there are concerns to be had for the remaining three. Minnesota and Washington even have their respective Mean Ranks inflated by Defensive Rusher Rating. Much of this has to do with the solid touchdown to forced fumble ratios for the respective teams.
Looking at the bottom three run defenses in this group, we could possibly see a game or two in which the opposing running game takes over to earn victory. We will keep a watchful on that.