The 2015 NFL Postseason is set to begin this weekend, with Super Bowl 50 on the line. We need to figure out which teams have the best chance of advancing in the postseason, given the possible match-ups. Furthermore, we need to also pick the postseason games effectively so we can have a chance to win the 2015 Pick’em championship. After winning 18 of 22 postseason games from the previous two postseasons, we know at least one way to achieve this. Therefore, we will detail the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll continue this analysis today with the second factor, which is “coaching quality.”
We previously explained “coaching quality” as such:
We analyze the capabilities of each team’s head coach. We want to answer some key questions. First, does this coach successfully guide his team to play disciplined football? Second, does this coach motivate his players to step up the quality of play in big games? Third, does this coach strategically and schematically take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses? Finally, does this coach have playoff experience that help the team to win these hard-fought games?
To analyze this season’s postseason field, we will simply and clearly look at the four key areas that make up “coaching quality.” Each question we asked addresses one area. We will rank each team’s coaching staff on team discipline, big-game motivation, play-calling quality and playoff game management. When we find a mean rank for the teams, we’ll see which of the 12 teams possess the coaching quality of a Super Bowl contender. Note that we made a few minor changes to what we had last year. In particular, we will have a more centered focus on statistical measures that compensate for the fact that we don’t have a fully quantitative way to measure these factors.
As for the four key areas that make up “coaching quality,” here’s what we got:
- Discipline: Focuses on team penalties and offensive turnovers
- Motivation: Focuses on win percentage in primetime games, postseason record and underdog wins
- Play-calling: Focuses on system-based statistical ranks (e.g.: an offensive coach will be graded on offensive ranks)
- Management: Focuses on win percentage in one-possession games, as well as successful challenge rate
Given how the coaching staff and key leadership players on the team are likely to change over the years, we will put more weight on the last three seasons, unless the head coach is in his first or second team with his current team. In the case of that exception, previous coaching tenures will also be considered (e.g.: Gary Kubiak with the Houston Texans).
Most of these coaching staffs are quite good, so this will be tough yet important to decipher. The table below has our final results, along with a mean rank to bind everything together to rank our respective coaching staffs.
Table 1: Coaching Ranks by Area
| Seed | Team | Head Coach | Discipline | Motivation | Play-Calling | Management | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC #2 | New England Patriots | Bill Belichick | 1st | 1st | 1st | 2nd | 1.25 |
| NFC #2 | Arizona Cardinals | Bruce Arians | 4th | 3rd | 3rd | 1st | 2.75 |
| NFC #5 | Green Bay Packers | Mike McCarthy | 3rd | 5th | 2nd | 5th | 3.75 |
| NFC #1 | Carolina Panthers | Ron Rivera | 5th | 6th | 6th | 3rd | 5.00 |
| AFC #5 | Kansas City Chiefs | Andy Reid | 2nd | 7th | 4th | 11th | 6.00 |
| AFC #6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Mike Tomlin | 9th | 4th | 5th | 6th | 6.00 |
| NFC #6 | Seattle Seahawks | Pete Carroll | 8th | 2nd | 7th | 10th | 6.75 |
| NFC #3 | Minnesota Vikings | Mike Zimmer | 6th | 9th | 11th | 7th | 8.25 |
| AFC #3 | Cincinnati Bengals | Marvin Lewis | 10th | 11th | 10th | 4th | 8.75 |
| AFC #1 | Denver Broncos | Gary Kubiak | 12th | 8th | 9th | 8th | 9.25 |
| AFC #4 | Houston Texans | Bill O’Brien | 7th | 12th | 12th | 9th | 10.00 |
| NFC #4 | Washington Redskins | Jay Gruden | 11th | 10th | 8th | 12th | 10.25 |
NOTE: The entire coaching staff, not just head coach, is considered for these rankings.
If one was to make a postseason coaching rankings, we think the list would look a lot like this one. Perhaps there may be a few controversial rankings within one of the fourth areas, but we think focusing on a few key stats for each areas helped to give some foundation to these rankings. It certainly has a more strict foundation than last year’s rankings.
As for the application of these rankings, we think the mean ranks will show that Bill Belichick is pretty much unmatched in the AFC. Perhaps there’s a chance that one of the NFC coaches, especially for the two teams with first-round byes, to get a wash against Belichick. Beyond that, though, it looks like Belichick is ready for a fifth championship (for this factor, at least). The bottom is a bit more open, as three newcomers and two noted big-game failures head towards the bottom. Marvin Lewis actually got a surprising rank for “management,” but his recent successful challenge rate (17 of 23 since 2013) and one-possession win rate (13.5 of 20 in the regular season since 2013) makes him worthy of the rank. Actually, Cincinnati also owns a 64.7 win percentage since 2013 as an underdog, but that “motivation” rank gets heavily dragged down by the 3-8 primetime record in that span (and 0-6 playoff record in the Lewis era). As for Kubiak, he’s so low because the focused stats are so bad towards the end of his Houston run. He’s probably the top “prove us wrong” candidate for these rankings.
Now that this factor is complete, we will next reveal the 2015 Regular Season TABRankings for our third factor. Make sure to check that out as continue we will continue our week-long postseason study tomorrow!