It’s the penultimate regular season week in the NFL, meaning that we’re entering the crunch time of the Pick’em competition. Week 17 will have at least 32 points up for grabs, while the postseason has 78 points up for grabs. However, including this week, there are only 43 games left. This means we have to be a bit more aggressive to gain ground on games (five games back with 43 left… one per 8.6 tries), as opposed to points (11 points back with 138 left… one per 12.54 tries).
We could interpret this in one of two extremes: (1) for the rest of the competition, only go against the grain of the leading contenders when you’re absolutely confident, or (2) be extra aggressive now to try to catch up in W-L record, then worry about points in the postseason. The first strategy requires us to be extremely effective in our selection. Who knows if we really even get five tries when we’re absolutely confident that FiveThirtyEight’s Elo picks will be incorrect. To be completely forthright, we agree with all of their Week 16 picks, and that’s not even considering we’d have to switch our pick for one of these games to fit “Upset of the Week” status. When we adjust for that upset pick (Titans over Texans), this is the first draft we get for the Week 16 picks submitted to NFL Pickwatch:
Those are our honest-to-God predictions, ones which we’d make in a vacuum without any consideration of being in a competition. However, considering that we’d be six games behind FiveThirtyEight with 27 games left (one per 4.5 tries) if the upset special fails, we can’t just settle for banking our hopes on the last-ranked Titans. It’s frankly not smart. Thus, for the first time in three years, we’re actually going to have adjust some of our picks for the sake of improving our standing in the competition. This is a little different than simply upholding the status quo to maintain a lead, something which we did the previous two seasons.
Therefore, our game plan involves the monitoring of all 14 competitors who rank above the mean in record and/or points. These experts are split into two categories: (1) the “top” category, for the four who rank above us in record, and (2) the “next” category, for the 10 who rank behind or equal to us in record. Basically, we want to go against the grain of the top five experts, but not at risk of falling behind the entirety of that “next” crowd. We more or less want to fit between the extremes we previously mentioned. We’ll be more aggressive than waiting for the “perfect” time, but we will still remain smart and prudent as we determine which games to go against the grain.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that any changes from the first draft submitted to NFL Pickwatch will be denoted with the **Amended Pick** distinction. We don’t know how many we will do, as it depends on the pool of 14 competitors that make up this “consensus.” If you’re looking at picks for a weekly office pool or something, we’d suggest you ignore these picks below and go with the above screencap we posted.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(2) New England Patriots (12-2) at (10) New York Jets (9-5)
All four of the “top” category experts are picking the Patriots, while six of the 10 “next” category also will roll with the road team. Basically, if we amended our pick, we’d be going against the grain by picking for the Titans and against the Patriots. That just seems a little too reckless to me. New York has faced the weakest schedule to date by far, so wonder if they can elevate their game to take down the second-best team in the league. The Jets played well against the Patriots in New England. The Pats’ front seven has improved since.
(8) Green Bay Packers (10-4) at (3) Arizona Cardinals (12-2)
Only one of the 14 experts (Adam Caplan of the “next” category) are taking visiting Green Bay. After what we discovered while publishing the Pack’s Playoff Team Profile, there’s no way we think they win in Arizona. It’s a very poor match-up for the visitors. We feel supremely confident in the Cardinals winning this one with some room to spare.
(4) Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at (9) Denver Broncos (10-4)
Only two of the 14 experts (both of whom are in the “next” category) are taking visiting Cincinnati. We won’t sweat it much if those two (Cris Carter and Jarrett Bell) gain some ground if the Bengals win. For starters, Bell took the Chargers in the Thursday Night Football match-up for some reason. Furthermore, Carter actually ranks below the mean in points, so a Bengals win doesn’t threaten us. We’ll stick with the Broncos, although we think this road win is much more likely than the previous match-up.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(26) San Diego Chargers (4-10) at (15) Oakland Raiders (6-8)
We correctly predicted this Thursday Night Football match-up.
(13) Washington Redskins (7-7) at (18) Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) **Amended Pick**
The experts are almost entirely split on this one, with eight taking Washington. However, the dynamic between the “top” category and the “next” category is what necessitates this amendment. All four “top” experts picked Philadelphia, meaning that eight of the remaining 10 took Washington. If we’re going to try to be a bit more aggressive in order to gain ground, this is the perfect chance to do so. If we’re actually correct about the Eagles winning, only Vinnie Iyer and Ron Jaworski of the “next” category gain a game of ground on us. If we’re wrong, this amendment will allow us to gain a very important game of ground. At least TABR backs this amendment.
(12) Houston Texans (7-7) at (32) Tennessee Titans (3-11) **Upset of the Week**
We have to pick something for the upset special, and this seems to be the only good fit. Houston may very well have to start Brandon Weeden, who in hindsight actually played considerably better in Dallas than Matt Cassel. We’d feel better about this upset if Marcus Mariota was healthy, but the Titans have to give way to Mettenberger. He led the offense to six points in the first meeting against Houston, something which we incorrectly predicted. For the lack of anything else we like, we’ll take this for the upset.
(1) Carolina Panthers (14-0) at (24) Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
All 14 experts are taking the undefeated Panthers, and so are we after failing with last week’s upset special.
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at (29) Baltimore Ravens (4-10)
All 14 experts are taking the visiting Steelers. Considering where these teams are trending, we’ll do so as well. Pittsburgh owns six consecutive games of 30+ points scored, including last week domination of Denver’s elite defense. Baltimore just lost its last two games by a combined 49 points after losing its other games by a combined 34 points. This rivalry likely means the game will be close, so we’d only consider the Ravens for the spread. (We’ve seen some lines in double figures, which is tempting.)
(17) St. Louis Rams (6-8) at (6) Seattle Seahawks (9-5) **Lock of the Week**
All 14 experts are taking the Seahawks. While Seattle struggles against the Rams, all those troubles came in St. Louis. Russell Wilson has lost to the Rams at home. Add in the fact that Seattle likely needs to win out to remain in the hunt for legitimate Super Bowl contention (according to our Four Postseason Factors), and this seems like a spot where the Seahawks keep rolling on their recent tear.
The Rest (1 point each)
(31) Cleveland Browns (3-11) at (5) Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
We needed to lock in one of these games, but we unfortunately can’t do so with this game. We picked the Chiefs two weeks ago at home against San Diego. Anyways, everybody’s taking the Chiefs, for obvious reasons.
(21) Indianapolis Colts (6-8) at (30) Miami Dolphins (5-9)
Surprisingly, only two of the 14 experts are taking the Colts. Of course, one of them is FiveThirtyEight, so we can’t have our cake and eat it too. It’s nice to see some pick go against the grain without it needing “upset” status. With now two picks going against the grain in both categories, we at least have a chance to recoup a game if the Titans fail. As for this game, Indianapolis may be struggling, but Miami is simply bad all around. The Colts are the favorites in our eyes, and they’ll keep their AFC South hopes alive.
(27) San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at (20) Detroit Lions (5-9)
Just when it looked like Detroit’s momentum from a three-game winning streak died, the Lions won in New Orleans on Monday Night Football. We’re impressed at the team’s determination after going 1-7 before its bye week. All 14 experts are taking the Lions, and we will follow suit. There’s a good chance the Lions finish the second half of the season with a 6-2 record.
(25) Dallas Cowboys (4-10) at (14) Buffalo Bills (6-8)
All 14 experts are taking the Bills. While we don’t know how they handle being officially eliminated, we can say that it’s far too much of a risk to pick Dallas. Kellen Moore was decisive in relief against the Jets, but he wasn’t particularly effective in a winnable game. Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor is taking supreme care of the ball. Dallas probably loses the turnover battle again, which means another loss.
(22) Chicago Bears (5-9) at (23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
All 14 experts are taking the Buccaneers in an otherwise meaningless match-up. The question is if we want to make things interesting and switch to a Bears team that owns the better TABR and owns a 4-3 road record. This would be the third match-up going against the grain of both categories, meaning that we would fall back to the mean if we lost all three match-ups. At the same time, we could go as far as second place with a win here. This doesn’t even include the split decision in Philadelphia, or the remaining two picks, remaining that going against the grain here could actually send us below the mean. That seems a little too extreme for us, considering that Week 17 and the playoffs are around the corner. We’ll stick with Tampa Bay, keeping this a virtually meaningless match-up.
(28) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at (19) New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Here we come to another match-up with against the grain potential. Three of the four “top” experts picked New Orleans, while six of the 10 “next” experts picked Jacksonville. This leaves a dead heat. Note that while already have two picks against the consensus, we have the Washington pick going against the “top” consensus. If we want to keep a balance between extremes, we can use this pick as the one that goes against the “next” consensus. Therefore, we have four picks that go against the grain, and we needed only one amendment to get there. We guess tonight’s game in Philly will be the big swing. (Note: this will change if Drew Brees can’t play tomorrow.)
(16) New York Giants (6-8) at (11) Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
All 14 experts picked the Vikings, but note that we’re completely ready to amend this pick if our Washington amendment fails. Why? It leaves the possibility for the Giants to win to stay in the NFC East hunt. Remember that last week’s 38-35 loss to Carolina set up the potential a trend previously established in 2007 and 2011 with New York’s two improbable Super Bowl runs. If the Eagles indeed win, a Giants win ties the division three ways at 7-8 apiece. That would be so like the NFC East.
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Recap: Four picks go against the grain… Two of those picks go against the consensus of both the “top” category and “next” category of experts… One more pick goes against the “top” consensus… Furthermore, one more pick goes against the “next” consensus, but that will change if Drew Brees will start at quarterback… We needed to amend only one pick from our first draft of picks submitted to NFL Pickwatch to achieve this balanced gameplan for Week 16 in the Pick’em competition… If we lose this “swing” game in Washington, we will amend another pick in Minnesota… At best, we can gain three games of ground on the “top” group of experts, putting us in second place… At worst, we can lose three games of ground to the “next” group of experts, putting us close to the main record.