NFL Playoff Team Profile: Green Bay Packers

Editor’s Note: Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we will profile each team that clinches a postseason berth. We will look at each team’s stats as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. We will show parts of the statistical profile today, but we will need to wait until Tuesday to show the league ranking (and remaining profile) for each stat. Those updates will be integrated below within this post. These rankings will illustrate each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the point in which the team clinched a postseason berth.

If we told that the Packers had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and a strong pass defense to compliment their franchise quarterback, it would be like an automatic choice to declare them legitimate Super Bowl contenders. That seemed to be the case when Green Bay started the season 6-0 heading into its bye week. Since then, though, we’ve some serious problems sprout into the forefront, especially during a post-bye three-game losing streak. Suddenly, the automatic choice seems like the wrong one. Is that truly the case? Using the Four Postseason Factors as a means of content, we examine today what areas of Green Bay’s game already fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender and what areas may need improvement. The examined stats relate to team balance, coaching quality, overall efficiency and playoff team precedence.

Team Balance: Surprising Problems with the Pass Offense
Here, we’ll get to see in true detail the serious problems that have plagued the Packers since their bye week (and perhaps even before it). Check out Green Bay’s statistical profile below. It will provide the basis for our illustration what’s going wrong in Green Bay, and it will let us see if those problems will prevent a Super Bowl run. Note that these stats were first used during last year’s Four Postseason Factors (FPF) analysis, and it helped us to go 18-4 within the last two NFL postseasons in the Pick’em competition.

Table 1: Green Bay Packers Statistical Profile (through Week 15)

OPR: Offensive Passer Rating, NY/D: Net Yards per Dropback, 1st%: First Down Percentage, Sack%: Sack Percentage,
DVOA: Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (all rights to this stat belong to Football Outsiders), DPR: Defensive Passer Rating,
NYA/D: Net Yards Allowed per Dropback, NY/P: Net Yards per Point Scored, REL: Relative Scoring Average, 3rd%: Third Down Percentage Differential,
RZ%: Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, ORR: Offensive Rusher Rating (first analyzed on Cold, Hard Football Facts),
YPA: Rush Yards per Attempt, OHI: Offensive Hog Index (created by CHFF), DRR: Defensive Rusher Rating (CHFF), DHI: Defensive Hog Index (CHFF),
vQO: W-L v. Quality Opponents, vPO: W-L v. Playoff Opponents, QRW: Quality Road Wins, PL3: Playoff W-L from 2012-14, DDWD: Double-Digit Win Differential

In some ways, Aaron Rodgers’ continual top-level play hides the problems at hand. In other areas, Rodgers can’t do nearly enough to stop the bleeding. The Packers pass for fewer than six net yards per dropback can attest to this. Playoff teams simply do not to allow more yards than they get in this area. The same applies for Passing First Down Percentage. It’s a very bad sign that the Packers allow first down more often than they earn it. Things aren’t much better in the run game, with the negative Net YPA and the near identical Net First Down Percentage. That rankings below should provide dirty details on how the Packers simply don’t look like a playoff team.

Table 2: Green Bay Packers Statistical Rankings (through Week 15)

See Table 1 for the statistical legend.

Oh boy. It’s not just that Green Bay’s pass offense is below playoff-level efficiency; it’s actually downright bad. In fact, if not for Rodgers’ great ball protection and efficient short passing, this unit would be one of the worst in the league. We frankly didn’t think this possible from an offense run by an elite quarterback. Note that the worst Pass Offense Mean Rank of any 2014 postseason team was from the Panthers (19.6). Somehow the horrific two months Cam Newton and that pass offense had last year wasn’t bad enough to knock the 2014 Panthers below the 2015 Packers. This is a major concern for Green Bay, no matter the postseason opponent.

The same can be said for the run defense. While Green Bay isn’t worse than all 2014 postseason team, the 21.1 mean rank proves to be a major flaw. Still, it’s somehow a slight improvement on last year’s 21.5 mean rank. It may be forgotten due to Seattle’s improbable comeback, the Seahawks ran for nearly 200 yards in last year’s NFC Championship win over the Packers. Keep that in mind.

Elsewhere, the Packers don’t look much like a contender, outside of the pass defense and battle-tested toughness. Only the Seahawks (7.2) did better last year among playoff teams in Pass Defense Mean Rank. Meanwhile, the “quality tests” mean rank is much better this year for Green Bay than last year (11.4). This team will need to rely on its grit and a near-perfect Aaron Rodgers to make a postseason run. It’s possible, but most likely a long shot if this factor has the decisive say.

Coaching Quality: In McCarthy We Trust
During last year’s FPF analysis, we gave Mike McCarthy a strong grade among the 12 postseason head coaches. Only Bill Belichick earned a better mean rank, for obvious reasons. Green Bay is still as discipline as ever, but one may have to question if McCarthy’s coaching staff will be ranked third again in play-calling after those duties have moved around on offense this year. It seems like the team is trying to find something that will work better, so our trust is waning there. Regardless, we see a neutral or favorable match-up for McCarthy and crew against all other NFC coaching staffs. The only problem comes if the Packers faces the Patriots in Super Bowl 50.

Overall Efficiency: Most Likely a Second-Tier Threat
As of the Week 14 TABRankings, the Packers ranked eighth. Three 8-5 teams, all of which won on Sunday, own a better TABR than Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers are closer to the 10th-ranked Jets (who we called the “bridge” between the good teams and the mediocre teams) than the fourth-ranked Bengals. If you didn’t see it yet, we called Cincinnati a Super Bowl threat for this factor. If the Packers are closer to the bridge towards mediocrity than one of the true Super Bowl contender, we think it’s safe to say the Packers are a second-tier team. TABR says they are a sufficient playoff threat, but not a true Super Bowl contender.

Playoff Team Precedence:
Finally, we look at playoff team precedence. We first delved into this type of analysis when we tested key factors of precedence for Cold, Hard Football Facts. That eventually evolved into our Super Bowl Super Study. If you examine that study, you’ll see our 13 key factors for playoff team precedence. Looking at the Packers, we see a few problems involving precedent at hand.

1. The Home-Away Split: Owns a 5-2 home record and 5-2 road record… guarantees to be flag-free
2. Divisional Success: Owns a 3-2 record v. the NFC North… flag status depends on Week 17 outcome
3. Season Starts and Finishes: Started 6-0, but finish TBD… flag status pending Week 16 and/or Week 17 outcomes
4. Maximum Losing Streaks: Maximum three-game losing streak
5. Single-Season Improvements: No possible improvement… guarantees to be flag-free
6. Starting Quarterback Experience: Aaron Rodgers owns a 6-5 postseason record… guarantees to be flag-free
7. Success v. Non-Quality Opponents: Owns a 7-2 record v. NQO with three one-possession wins… projects to be flag-free
8. Success v. Playoff Teams: Owns a 1-1 record v. playoff teams… projects to be flag-free
9. Blowout Losses: Owns no blowout losses… projects to be flag-free
10. Turnover Margin per Game: Owns a +0.5 Turnover Margin per Game… projects to be flag-free
11. Point Differential per Game: Owns a +5.86 Point Differential per Game… projects to be flag-free
12. Passer Rating Differential: Owns a +15.36 Passer Rating Differential… projects to be flag-free
13. Yards per Play Differential: Owns a negative-0.16 Yards per Play Differential… projected red flag

We labeled any playoff team with three or fewer points as a “true Super Bowl contender” during last year’s FPF analysis, so Green Bay needs to find a way to earn at least a positive Yards per Play Differential (YPPD) by season’s end. It certainly won’t help that the Packers travel to Arizona before hosting Minnesota. Neither team will make it easy for Green Bay. This will be “make or break” for the team’s status as a Super Bowl contender for this factor. Make sure to monitor how the Packers to finish in YPPD.

FINAL ASSESSMENT: NOT LIKE PAST CONTENDERS IN GREEN BAY
Due to Green Bay’s serious problems in team balance, as well as the tenuous situation in playoff team precedent, we think Green Bay is NOT a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Unless the Packers can simply dominate two quality opponents to finish the regular season, we think this team is more likely to go one-and-done than win the conference.

We could focus on Aaron Rodgers as to why this team shouldn’t be counted out, but let’s note the track record of past opponents to knock the Packers out of the postseason since their Super Bowl XLV victory. The 2011 Giants, 2012 49ers, 2013 49ers and 2014 Seahawks all had favorable match-ups in team balance. Even key regular season games with unfavorable unit match-ups, like the ones in Denver and Carolina this year, went awry for Green Bay over the past five years. Rodgers is as good as they come when playing from ahead and when playing with a favorable match-up. However, he’s actually been a bit disappointing when the chips are limited.

We originally predicted the Packers to win the NFC, but our confidence level in that prediction is currently very low.