With the regular season hitting its home stretch, we now have nearly a full understanding as to how teams will finish in the TABRankings. For the Week 15 edition, we see the entire Top 10 keep its place from the previous week. Only the Minnesota Vikings, the last of the 11 teams with a winning record, saw some movement up. They predictably moved up to 11th. Houston, Washington and Buffalo also posted above-average totals, but the Bills are resigned to yet another season without a postseason berth.
Honestly, the most interesting note comes from the last-place spot in these rankings. The Titans puts up the league’s first negative total for a while. We believe the Jaguars last did so, all the way during Week 6.
For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.
Here’s our formula:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for Week 15.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1, a non-factor.
With now all that put together, the results for Week 15 are available below. Make sure to check back each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!
The TABRankings top eight:
1
, 2
, 3
, 4
5
, 6
, 7
, 8
True TABRankings — Week 15
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Panthers | 14-0 | 601.07 (1st) | -45.33 (30th) | 555.74 |
| 2 | 2 | New England Patriots | 12-2 | 514.57 (2nd) | -35.20 (27th) | 479.37 |
| 3 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 12-2 | 505.33 (3rd) | -49.94 (31st) | 455.39 |
| 4 | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11-3 | 450.76 (4th) | -12.27 (23rd) | 438.49 |
| 5 | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-5 | 417.43 (5th) | -1.34 (17th) | 416.09 |
| 6 | 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-5 | 392.34 (6th) | -4.71 (19th) | 387.63 |
| 7 | 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-5 | 336.16 (9th) | 41.19 (5th) | 377.35 |
| 8 | 8 | Green Bay Packers | 10-4 | 369.37 (7th) | -12.52 (24th) | 356.85 |
| 9 | 9 | Denver Broncos | 10-4 | 332.34 (10th) | 4.47 (15th) | 336.81 |
| 10 | 10 | New York Jets | 9-5 | 364.57 (8th) | -66.33 (32nd) | 298.24 |
| 11 | 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 9-5 | 276.43 (11th) | -5.43 (20th) | 271.00 |
| 12 | 12 | Houston Texans | 7-7 | 224.30 (13th) | 22.67 (7th) | 246.97 |
| 13 | 15 | Washington Redskins | 7-7 | 242.21 (12th) | 3.46 (16th) | 245.67 |
| 14 | 11 | Buffalo Bills | 6-8 | 218.08 (15th) | 22.64 (9th) | 240.72 |
| 15 | 16 | Oakland Raiders | 6-8 | 208.87 (16th) | 4.81 (14th) | 213.68 |
| 16 | 17 | New York Giants | 6-8 | 221.44 (14th) | -9.37 (21st) | 212.07 |
| 17 | 18 | St. Louis Rams | 6-8 | 192.06 (17th) | 28.05 (6th) | 210.11 |
| 18 | 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-8 | 167.55 (19th) | 20.27 (10th) | 187.82 |
| 19 | 19 | New Orleans Saints | 5-9 | 147.28 (21st) | 16.31 (12th) | 163.59 |
| 20 | 23 | Detroit Lions | 5-9 | 115.74 (23rd) | 46.41 (2nd) | 162.15 |
| 21 | 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 6-8 | 132.82 (22nd) | 22.66 (8th) | 155.48 |
| 22 | 20 | Chicago Bears | 5-9 | 103.38 (24th) | 43.38 (4th) | 146.76 |
| 23 | 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-8 | 186.33 (18th) | -45.06 (29th) | 141.27 |
| 24 | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | 7-7 | 158.64 (20th) | -44.33 (28th) | 114.31 |
| 25 | 26 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-10 | 56.62 (28th) | 46.41 (3rd) | 103.03 |
| 26 | 29 | San Diego Chargers | 4-10 | 70.02 (27th) | 5.97 (13th) | 75.99 |
| 27 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 4-10 | 17.78 (31st) | 56.79 (1st) | 74.57 |
| 28 | 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-9 | 90.40 (25th) | -31.08 (26th) | 59.32 |
| 29 | 28 | Baltimore Ravens | 4-10 | 51.81 (29th) | -3.92 (18th) | 47.89 |
| 30 | 30 | Miami Dolphins | 5-9 | 73.76 (26th) | -26.21 (25th) | 47.55 |
| 31 | 31 | Cleveland Browns | 3-11 | 18.14 (30th) | 18.10 (11th) | 36.24 |
| 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3-11 | 7.27 (32nd) | -10.66 (22nd) | -3.39 |