Editor’s Note: Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we will profile each team that clinches a postseason berth. With Washington winning a special Saturday night game to clinch the NFC East, we examine the team today. We will look at each team’s stats as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. We will show parts of the statistical profile today, but we will need to wait until Tuesday to show the league ranking (and remaining profile) for each stat. Those updates will be integrated below within this post. These rankings will illustrate each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the point in which the team clinched a postseason berth.
We opened our in-season analysis for the 2015 NFL season by discussing Washington’s decision to start Kirk Cousins at quarterback. We went on the record in saying that Cousins wasn’t the correct choice to be the starter. That certainly seemed to be case during the first six games of the season, with the quarterback throwing multiple interceptions four times. Then came the comeback in Tampa Bay, prompting Cousins’ now-infamous catchphrase. That began the process of improvement for Cousins, capping with a triple-digit passer rating in each of his last five games. That’s led to Washington winning the awful NFC East. Now can the team keep its momentum going in the postseason, or is the recent tear a smoke screen for the team’s shortcomings? Using the Four Postseason Factors as a means of content, we examine today what areas of Washington’s game already fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender and what areas may need improvement. The examined stats relate to team balance, coaching quality, overall efficiency and playoff team precedence.
Team Balance: Not Much Besides the Passing Game
Early on, Cousins’ struggles with protecting the ball made it seem like the team is in the divisional hunt in spite of its pass offense. Now, with the quarterback playing amazing football, it seems like he is carrying the team to the postseason. So what is truly the case? Check out Washington’s statistical below. These stats were first used during last year’s Four Postseason Factors (FPF) analysis, which helped us to go 18-4 within the last two NFL postseasons in the Pick’em competition.
Table 1: Washington’s Statistical Profile (through Week 16)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 99.04 | 6.85 | 37.24 | 4.68 | 30.9% | Run Offense | 79.33 | 3.61 | 18.58 | 14.00 | -24.1% | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | |
| Pass Defense | 95.69 | 6.73 | 34.75 | 6.16 | 12.6% | Run Defense | 89.23 | 4.77 | 25.13 | 22.33 | -6.3% | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | |
| Scoring Efficiency | +0.91 | -0.74 | +4.49 | +10.31 | 3.2% | Quality Tests | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 0-1 | Even |
OPR: Offensive Passer Rating, NY/D: Net Yards per Dropback, 1st%: First Down Percentage, Sack%: Sack Percentage,
DVOA: Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (all rights to this stat belong to Football Outsiders), DPR: Defensive Passer Rating,
NYA/D: Net Yards Allowed per Dropback, NY/P: Net Yards per Point Scored, REL: Relative Scoring Average, 3rd%: Third Down Percentage Differential,
RZ%: Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, ORR: Offensive Rusher Rating (first analyzed on Cold, Hard Football Facts),
YPA: Rush Yards per Attempt, OHI: Offensive Hog Index (created by CHFF), DRR: Defensive Rusher Rating (CHFF), DHI: Defensive Hog Index (CHFF),
vQO: W-L v. Quality Opponents, vPO: W-L v. Playoff Opponents, QRW: Quality Road Wins, PL3: Playoff W-L from 2012-14, DDWD: Double-Digit Win Differential
For all doubts we’ve had about Cousins, he deserves credit for leading the pass offense into a nice surge down the stretch. In the short term, this definitely has the makings to pan out as the correct choice. However, beyond that, the numbers aren’t particularly impressive. Washington isn’t winning the passing battle by much. Meanwhile, it has some serious disadvantages on the ground and in the trenches. Finally, it should be a major cause for concern that the team isn’t battle-tested at all. The rankings are shown below, so you’ll see how Washington seems to be rather one-dimensional (all linked to the pass offense).
Table 2: Washington’s Statistical Rankings (through Week 16)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 6th | 8th | 7th | 7th | 6th | 6.8 | Run Offense | 23rd | 29th | 29th | t-11th | 32nd | 25.0 | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | Mean | |
| Pass Defense | 22nd | 23rd | 19th | t-15th | 18th | 19.5 | Run Defense | 12th | 31st | 30th | 25th | 23rd | 24.2 | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Mean | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | Mean | |
| Scoring Effic. | 12th | 14th | 9th | 7th | 5th | 9.4 | Quality Tests | t-28th | t-24th | t-23rd | t-14th | 15th | 23.0 |
See Table 1 for the statistical legend.
Take away the surging pass offense, and you have an all-around bad football team. The scoring efficiency here acts as extension of the passing game, so that mean rank is passable. The other four areas feature mean ranks well below standards. Comparable units from last year’s playoffs were the Cowboys pass defense, the Lions run offense and the Bengals run defense. Meanwhile, no 2014 playoff team owned as bad of a mean rank in quality tests as this year’s Washington team.
We think all five other NFC playoff teams have a good chance of winning the match-up for this factor.
Coaching Quality: New Coach to the Playoffs
Head coach Jay Gruden is a newcomer to the playoffs, we don’t know for sure how he and his coaching staff will rank for this factor. The NFC playoff picture may very well be completely decided by Sunday, as long as the Vikings clinched their playoff spot. Judging the remaining cast in the conference, we’d find it hard to put Gruden significantly ahead of any of those coaches.
We’ll have to wait until we rank 12 playoff coaches to know for sure, but Washington will likely have to settle for a wash at best for this factor, no matter how the team plays.
Overall Efficiency: Long Way from Being a Contender
As of the Week 15 TABRankings, Washington ranked 13th and finally earned a TABR total greater the mean. However, the team still owns a total much weaker than the top nine teams in the rankings. This includes four NFC teams (Panthers, Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers) that already clinched playoff spots. We think Washington has a match-up disadvantage against those teams for this factor.
Playoff Team Precedence: Flags… Almost Everywhere
Finally, we look at playoff team precedence. We first delved into this type of analysis when we tested key factors of precedence for Cold, Hard Football Facts. That eventually evolved into our Super Bowl Super Study. If you examine that study, you’ll see our 13 key factors for playoff team precedence. Looking at Washington, it’s obvious why a Super Bowl is far from the question.
- The Home-Away Split: Owns 6-2 home record and 2-5 road record
- Divisional Success: Owns 3-2 record v. NFC East… flag status pending Week 17 outcome
- Season Starts and Finishes: Started 5-7 on the season
- Maximum Losing Streaks: Maximum two-game losing streak… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Single-Season Improvements: Achieved 4- or 5-game improvement…flag status pending Week 17 outcome
- Starting Quarterback Experience: Kirk Cousins has no postseason experience… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Success v. Non-Quality Opponents: Owns 8-3 record v. NQO with four one-possession wins… projected to be flagged
- Success v. Playoff Teams: Owns 0-2 record v. playoff teams
- Blowout Losses: Suffered one blowout loss… flag status pending Week 17 outcome
- Turnover Margin per Game: Owns +0.07 Turnover Margin per Game… projected to be flag-free
- Point Differential per Game: Owns -0.13 Point Differential per Game… projected to be flagged
- Passer Rating Differential: Owns +3.35 Passer Rating Differential… projected to be flagged
- Yards per Play Differential: Owns -0.41 Yards per Play Differential… projected to be flagged
Well, this is an utter mess. We labeled any playoff team with three or fewer points as a “true Super Bowl contender” during last year’s FPF analysis, so you can clearly see that Washington won’t fit that mold. The team already has 10 guaranteed points, including the minimum one point that will be added next week (re: a loss to Dallas earns a red flag in the second category, while a win earns an amber flag in the fifth category). There are also another eight points to be added if Washington can’t improve its projections in Week 17. By all means, this puts the NFC East champions at a major disadvantage against NFC playoff counterparts.
FINAL ASSESSMENT: JUST BE HAPPY WITH THE POSTSEASON
It’s quite obvious that Washington has no makings of a Super Bowl contender. They aren’t fit to contend in four of six areas of team balance. They have a head coach with no postseason experience. They have an efficiency total that just recently surpassed the mean. Finally, they have flags riddled across their profile for playoff team precedence. A one-and-done finish seems quite likely, especially if Washington has to host a powerful team like the Seattle Seahawks.