Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on how Super Bowl teams fare within the division. The chart below examines the divisional record for EVERY Super Bowl combatant after the AFL-NFL merger. Note that professional football didn’t always have divisions, so the chart also examines the conference record for each AFL team before the merger and 1966 Packers, as those teams did not play in a division. The conference record during that time acts a rough equivalent to divisional record in the application of this study.
Table 2: Divisional Record
| SB | Winner | W-L | SB | Loser | W-L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | 10-2 | I | 66 Chiefs | 5-1 | |
| II | 67 Packers | 4-1-1 | II | 67 Raiders | 6-0 | |
| III | 68 Jets | 7-1 | III | 68 Colts | 6-0 | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | 5-3 | IV | 69 Vikings | 6-0 | |
| V | 70 Colts | 6-1-1 | V | 70 Cowboys | 5-3 | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | 7-1 | VI | 71 Dolphins | 5-3 | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | 8-0 | VII | 72 Redskins | 7-1 | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | 7-1 | VIII | 73 Vikings | 6-0 | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | 4-2 | IX | 74 Vikings | 4-2 | |
| X | 75 Steelers | 6-0 | X | 75 Cowboys | 6-2 | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | 7-0 | XI | 76 Vikings | 5-1 | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | 7-1 | XII | 77 Broncos | 6-1 | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | 5-1 | XIII | 78 Cowboys | 7-1 | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | 4-2 | XIV | 79 Rams | 5-1 | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | 6-2 | XV | 80 Eagles | 6-2 | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | 5-1 | XVI | 81 Bengals | 4-2 | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | 6-1 | XVII | 82 Dolphins | 6-1 | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | 6-2 | XVIII | 83 Redskins | 7-1 | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | 6-0 | XIX | 84 Dolphins | 8-0 | |
| XX | 85 Bears | 8-0 | XX | 85 Patriots | 6-2 | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | 7-1 | XXI | 86 Broncos | 5-3 | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | 7-1 | XXII | 87 Broncos | 7-1 | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | 4-2 | XXIII | 88 Bengals | 4-2 | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | 5-1 | XXIV | 89 Broncos | 6-2 | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | 7-1 | XXV | 90 Bills | 7-1 | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | 6-2 | XXVI | 91 Bills | 7-1 | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | 6-2 | XXVII | 92 Bills | 5-3 | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | 7-1 | XXVIII | 93 Bills | 7-1 | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | 6-0 | XXIX | 94 Chargers | 6-2 | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | 5-3 | XXX | 95 Steelers | 6-2 | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | 7-1 | XXXI | 96 Patriots | 6-2 | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | 6-2 | XXXII | 97 Packers | 7-1 | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | 8-0 | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | 7-1 | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | 8-0 | XXXIV | 99 Titans | 9-1 | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | 8-2 | XXXV | 00 Giants | 7-1 | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | 6-2 | XXXVI | 01 Rams | 7-1 | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | 4-2 | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | 4-2 | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | 5-1 | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | 5-1 | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | 5-1 | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | 6-0 | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | 4-2 | XL | 05 Seahawks | 6-0 | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | 3-3 | XLI | 06 Bears | 5-1 | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | 3-3 | XLII | 07 Patriots | 6-0 | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | 6-0 | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | 6-0 | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | 4-2 | XLIV | 09 Colts | 6-0 | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | 4-2 | XLV | 10 Steelers | 5-1 | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | 3-3 | XLVI | 11 Patriots | 5-1 | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | 4-2 | XLVII | 12 49ers | 3-2-1 | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | 4-2 | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | 5-1 | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | 4-2 | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | 5-1 |
Red flag: .500 divisional record or worse
Amber flag: Winning divisional record below a .666 winning percentage
There is one major problem in assessing teams based the “red flag, amber flag” rules in this factor. Since the divisional realignment in 2002, teams now only have six divisional games. Therefore, unless a team ties a divisional game (like the 2012 49ers), it will earn either a red flag or no flag. No team earned a red flag before realignment.
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- Two red flags: 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants
- One red flag, one amber flag: 2006 Colts
- One red flag: 1988 49ers, 2010 Packers
- One amber flag: 1969 Chiefs, 1979 Steelers, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2012 Ravens
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- One red flag: 1979 Rams, 2008 Cardinals
- Two amber flags: 1986 Broncos
- One amber flag: 1970 Cowboys, 1971 Dolphins, 1985 Patriots, 1987 Broncos, 1988 Bengals, 1992 Bills, 2012 49ers
With only two factors evaluated, we’re already seeing the expected “weakest Super Bowl teams” emerging to the top. The two recent Giants teams will likely finish with the most red flags of all, while the 1979 Rams and 2008 Cardinals will probably finish close behind. Meanwhile, the rest are open for interpretation, based on the rest of the study.
Up next: Strong Starts and Strong Finishes