Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on the difference of how a team plays on the road, compared to how it plays at home. The table below examines the home and away for EVERY Super Bowl combatant. The outliers are highlighted in either red or amber.
Table 1: The Home-Away Split
| SB | Winner | W-L (H/A) | SB | Loser | W-L (H/A) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | 12-2 (6-1 / 6-1) | I | 66 Chiefs | 11-2-1 (4-2-1 / 7-0) | |
| II | 67 Packers | 9-4-1 (4-2-1 / 5-2) | II | 67 Raiders | 13-1 (7-0 / 6-1) | |
| III | 68 Jets | 11-3 (6-1 / 5-2) | III | 68 Colts | 13-1 (6-1 / 7-0) | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | 11-3 (6-1 / 5-2) | IV | 69 Vikings | 12-2 (7-0 / 5-2) | |
| V | 70 Colts | 11-2-1 (5-1-1 / 6-1) | V | 70 Cowboys | 10-4 (6-1 / 4-3) | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | 11-3 (6-1 / 5-2) | VI | 71 Dolphins | 10-3-1 (6-1 / 4-2-1) | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | 14-0 (7-0 / 7-0) | VII | 72 Redskins | 11-3 (6-1 / 5-2) | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | 12-2 (7-0 / 5-2) | VIII | 73 Vikings | 12-2 (7-0 / 5-2) | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | 10-3-1 (5-2 / 5-1-1) | IX | 74 Vikings | 10-4 (4-3 / 6-1) | |
| X | 75 Steelers | 12-2 (6-1 / 6-1) | X | 75 Cowboys | 10-4 (5-2 / 5-2) | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | 13-1 (7-0 / 6-1) | XI | 76 Vikings | 11-2-1 (6-0-1 / 5-2) | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | 12-2 (6-1 / 6-1) | XII | 77 Broncos | 12-2 (6-1 / 6-1) | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | 14-2 (7-1 / 7-1) | XIII | 78 Cowboys | 12-4 (7-1 / 5-3) | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | 12-4 (8-0 / 4-4) | XIV | 79 Rams | 9-7 (4-4 / 5-3) | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | XV | 80 Eagles | 12-4 (7-1 / 5-3) | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | XVI | 81 Bengals | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | 8-1 (3-1 / 5-0) | XVII | 82 Dolphins | 7-2 (4-0 / 3-2) | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XVIII | 83 Redskins | 14-2 (7-1 / 7-1) | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | 15-1 (7-1 / 8-0) | XIX | 84 Dolphins | 14-2 (7-1 / 7-1) | |
| XX | 85 Bears | 15-1 (8-0 / 7-1) | XX | 85 Patriots | 11-5 (7-1 / 4-4) | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | 14-2 (8-0 / 6-2) | XXI | 86 Broncos | 11-5 (7-1 / 4-4) | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | 11-4 (6-1 / 5-3) | XXII | 87 Broncos | 10-4-1 (7-1 / 3-3-1) | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | 10-6 (4-4 / 6-2) | XXIII | 88 Bengals | 12-4 (8-0 / 4-4) | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | 14-2 (6-2 / 8-0) | XXIV | 89 Broncos | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | XXV | 90 Bills | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | 14-2 (7-1 / 7-1) | XXVI | 91 Bills | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | XXVII | 92 Bills | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XXVIII | 93 Bills | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | XXIX | 94 Chargers | 11-5 (5-3 / 6-2) | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XXX | 95 Steelers | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | XXXI | 96 Patriots | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | 12-4 (8-0 / 4-4) | XXXII | 97 Packers | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | 14-2 (8-0 / 6-2) | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | 14-2 (8-0 / 6-2) | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | XXXIV | 99 Titans | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XXXV | 00 Giants | 12-4 (5-3 / 7-1) | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | XXXVI | 01 Rams | 14-2 (6-2 / 8-0) | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | 14-2 (8-0 / 6-2) | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | 11-5 (6-2 / 5-3) | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | 14-2 (8-0 / 6-2) | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | 11-5 (5-3 / 6-2) | XL | 05 Seahawks | 13-3 (8-0 / 5-3) | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | 12-4 (8-0 / 4-4) | XLI | 06 Bears | 13-3 (6-2 / 7-1) | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | 10-6 (3-5 / 7-1) | XLII | 07 Patriots | 16-0 (8-0 / 8-0) | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | 12-4 (6-2 / 6-2) | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | 9-7 (6-2 / 3-5) | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | 13-3 (6-2 / 7-1) | XLIV | 09 Colts | 14-2 (7-1 / 7-1) | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | 10-6 (7-1 / 3-5) | XLV | 10 Steelers | 12-4 (5-3 / 7-1) | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | 9-7 (4-4 / 5-3) | XLVI | 11 Patriots | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | 10-6 (6-2 / 4-4) | XLVII | 12 49ers | 11-4-1 (6-1-1 / 5-3) | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | 13-3 (7-1 / 6-2) | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | 12-4 (7-1 / 5-3) | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | 12-4 (7-1 / 5-3) |
Red flag: Losing road record OR non-winning home record
Amber flag: .500 road record received an amber flag
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- One red flag: 1988 49ers, 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, 2011 Giants
- One amber flag: 1979 Steelers, 1997 Broncos, 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- One red flag: 1979 Rams, 2008 Cardinals
- One amber flag: 1985 Patriots, 1986 Broncos, 1987 Broncos, 1988 Bengals
Primarily, we see a very strong precedence of a team being able to win frequently both at home and on the road. That can be supported by 84 of the 98 Super Bowl teams (85.71 percent) achieving a winning record in both splits. Most of the exceptions came during the two periods of NFL history. First, the mid-to-late 1980’s saw the AFC at its weakest, so four consecutive AFC representatives earned an amber flag. Second, the past decade’s surge in unlikely champions provided three Super Bowl winners with an red flag and two Super Bowl winners with an amber flag. We’re still trying to figure out this near decade-long trend.
Up next: Divisional Success