Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on the impact of a Super Bowl team’s respective start and finish to the regular season. The chart below details each half of the regular season for every Super Bowl regular season. The chart evaluates the maximum amount of games under .500 each team totaled in each half. The first half will be evaluated as normal, but the second half schedule analysis will go in reverse order to follow the “hottest team wins” and “coldest team loses” theories. Teams that never held a sub .500 record relative to the regular season start or finish will be marked “over” or “even” to avoid any confusion.
Table 3: Regular Season Starts and Finishes
| SB | Winner | H1 | H2 | SB | Loser | H1 | H2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | Over | Over | I | 66 Chiefs | Over | Over | |
| II | 67 Packers | Even | -2 (0-2) | II | 67 Raiders | Over | Over | |
| III | 68 Jets | Over | Over | III | 68 Colts | Over | Over | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | Over | -1 (0-1) | IV | 69 Vikings | -1 (0-1) | -1 (0-1) | |
| V | 70 Colts | Even | Over | V | 70 Cowboys | Over | Over | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | Over | Over | VI | 71 Dolphins | Even | -1 (1-2) | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | Over | Over | VII | 72 Redskins | Over | -2 (0-2) | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | Even | Even | VIII | 73 Vikings | Over | Over | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | Even | Over | IX | 74 Vikings | Over | Over | |
| X | 75 Steelers | Even | -1 (0-1) | X | 75 Cowboys | Over | Over | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | Over | Over | XI | 76 Vikings | Over | Over | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | Over | Over | XII | 77 Broncos | Over | -1 (0-1) | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | Over | Over | XIII | 78 Cowboys | Over | Over | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | Over | Even | XIV | 79 Rams | -1 (0-1) | -1 (0-1) | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | -1 (2-3) | Over | XV | 80 Eagles | Over | -2 (1-3) | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | -1 (1-2) | Over | XVI | 81 Bengals | Over | Over | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | Over | Over | XVII | 82 Dolphins | Over | Over | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | Over | Even | XVIII | 83 Redskins | -1 (0-1) | Over | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | Over | Over | XIX | 84 Dolphins | Over | Over | |
| XX | 85 Bears | Over | Over | XX | 85 Patriots | -1 (2-3) | Even | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | -1 (0-1) | Over | XXI | 86 Broncos | Over | -1 (x4) | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | Even | Even | XXII | 87 Broncos | Even | Over | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | Over | -1 (0-1) | XXIII | 88 Bengals | Over | Even | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | Over | Over | XXIV | 89 Broncos | Over | -2 (1-3) | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | Over | Even | XXV | 90 Bills | Over | -1 (0-1) | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | Over | -1 (0-1) | XXVI | 91 Bills | Over | -1 (0-1) | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | Over | Over | XXVII | 92 Bills | Over | -1 (x2) | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | -2 (0-2) | Over | XXVIII | 93 Bills | Over | Over | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | Over | -1 (0-1) | XXIX | 94 Chargers | Over | Even | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | Over | Even | XXX | 95 Steelers | -1 (3-4) | -1 (0-1) | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | Over | Over | XXXI | 96 Patriots | -2 (0-2) | Even | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | Over | -1 (1-2) | XXXII | 97 Packers | Even | Over | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | Over | -1 (1-2) | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | Over | Over | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | Over | -1 (0-1) | XXXIV | 99 Titans | Over | Over | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | Over | Over | XXXV | 00 Giants | Over | Over | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | -2 (x2) | Over | XXXVI | 01 Rams | Over | Over | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | -1 (0-1) | Even | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | Even | Over | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | -1 (0-1) | Over | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | Over | Even | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | Over | Over | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | Over | -2 (0-2) | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | Over | Over | XL | 05 Seahawks | -1 (0-1) | -1 (0-1) | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | Over | -1 (x2) | XLI | 06 Bears | Over | -1 (0-1) | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | -2 (0-2) | -1 (x2) | XLII | 07 Patriots | Over | Over | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | Over | Even | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | Even | -2 (2-4) | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | Over | -3 (0-3) | XLIV | 09 Colts | Over | -2 (0-2) | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | Even | Even | XLV | 10 Steelers | Over | Over | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | -1 (0-1) | -2 (3-5) | XLVI | 11 Patriots | Over | Over | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | Even | -3 (1-4) | XLVII | 12 49ers | Over | Even | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | Over | Even | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | Over | Over | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | -1 (0-1) | -1 (0-1) | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | Even | Over |
Red flag: Two games under .500 in either half and failed to meet the “amber flag” exception
Amber flag: Two games under .500 in second half, but already clinched their playoff slot (before 1975) or seed (since 1975) at the time of their final loss
Like with the first factor we discussed (home and away split), the recent string of unlikely Super Bowl teams caused a higher rate of flagged teams. However, there are also three flagged teams in this span that already earned a one seed in its respective conference. This includes both Super Bowl XLIV teams starting at least 13-0 but losing down the stretch. That might be an outlier we don’t see again.
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- Three red flags: 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants
- One red flag, one amber flag: 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens
- One red flag: 1988 49ers, 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots, 2010 Packers
- One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1979 Steelers, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2009 Saints
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- Two red flags: 2008 Cardinals
- One red flag: 1979 Rams, 1980 Eagles, 1996 Patriots
- Two amber flags: 1986 Broncos
- One amber flag: 1970 Cowboys, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1985 Patriots, 1987 Broncos, 1988 Bengals, 1989 Broncos, 1992 Bills, 2004 Eagles, 2009 Colts, 2012 49ers
The two recent Giants champions continue to tally red flags. On the flip side, there are 68 Super Bowl combatants (69.39 percent) who have yet to tally a flag. At this rate, receiving one flag might become the norm.
Up next: Maximum Losing Streaks