Week 6 began with yet another loss, albeit one in which nearly all experts fell in line with the choice. We admittedly were hesitant to pull the trigger on the Saints, who came out to play like their season was on the line against a Falcons team coming off an overtime game before a short week of preparation. This was right to predict the upset, and we simply missed it.
Luckily, it’s woken us up a little bit, and we feel like we’re ready to use unit match-ups more frequently in our NFL Pick’em predictions. This week’s slate of games has a few Games of the Week that are likely to be dampered by quarterback injuries (re: Bengals at Bills, Cardinals at Steelers), but there is still some progress to be had. We must be on our game here in Week 6.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(4) Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at (9) Buffalo Bills (3-2)
This one ultimately comes down to the health of Tyrod Taylor, in our eyes. With Taylor on the field, it gives the Bills a much more varied offense. That comes as a big help, especially with LeSean McCoy expected to be back in the mix at running back. Meanwhile, although the team is regressing in big-play defense as expected, Buffalo still sports one of the top 1-2 cornerback combos in the league. While Cincinnati’s passing game is playing great, we still doubt the consistency of that unit. If Taylor can somehow play with his injury, we will switch this pick, but signs currently point to the Bills starting Manuel under center in this GotW.
(15) Washington Redskins (2-3) at (6) New York Jets (3-1) **Lock of the Week**
This is a surprising Game of the Week, but it just goes to show how low the bar has been set for 2015. The Jets are one of a few teams who have a top 10 TABR amid a transition or retooling process, while the visitors have a “distinction” as one of the tougher outs as a 2-3 team. In the end, this one comes down to the turnover battle. The Jets looked great forcing turnovers (12) in their three wins, while Washington has a quarterback noted for his turnover issues. New York should win on that strength. This isn’t a lock in the truest sense, but it’s the best we have for Week 6, due to our two top favorites (re: Packers and Patriots) already used for LotW distinction.
(7) Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at (11) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
Outside of our questions and suspicions about Carson Palmer’s winless playoff record, this Cardinals truly has put together a decent sample size of “Super Bowl contender” worthy play. Going up against Mike Vick in this match-up, that’s enough for us to pick the Cardinals in a tough road spot. Also of note, Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t proven enough to sway us.
(10) New York Giants (3-2) at (13) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
The more you get to know us, the more you will see how we can be infamously stubborn in picking the road team in this rivalry. In fact, you can recall the Giants in this exact same spot as last year — overcoming an 0-2 start to head into Philadelphia for a Week 6 primetime game. We picked the Giants then, but they lost in shutout fashion and were frankly never the same for the rest of the season. This time should be different, as the New York offense is better and the Philadelphia offense is worse relative to Week 6 in 2014. A three-spot difference in the TABRankings don’t quite do justice at where this stands — the Giants are actually closer to the undefeated 5th-ranked Broncos than the Eagles in TABR differential. This rivalry is famous for the Giants winning big games in Philly and visa versa.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(3) Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at (27) New Orleans Saints (1-4)
We incorrectly predicted this Thursday Night Football match-up.
(26) Chicago Bears (2-3) at (31) Detroit Lions (0-5)
The Bears took care of business against two AFC West, thanks to the solid play of Jay Cutler as he came back from injury. Meanwhile, the Lions are 0-5 almost exclusively due to their inability to work through a tough schedule. Last week’s debacle at home against Arizona was the low point, as it was the first time the Lions looked truly bad in their winless start. No matter, this will be a relative “break” for the Lions, facing by and far their weakest opponent to date. We think the urgency will show in Detroit, as do most of the experts.
(29) Houston Texans (1-4) at (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
Houston’s offense showed some recent promise with Brian Hoyer under center. Jacksonville’s offense is doing the same with Blake Bortles, who is working hard to shed the stench of his awful rookie season. Regardless, this match-up is uninspiring. On the product of our slightly higher preseason expectations for the Texans, we’ll take them to avoid the 1-5 start.
The Rest (1 point each)
(5) Denver Broncos (5-0) at (19) Cleveland Browns (2-3) **Upset of the Week**
Surprisingly, Josh McCown still truly moving this Cleveland offense. In a time where the Cleveland defense was showing just a little more promise, this would be a definite upset pick in our eyes. Instead, we have ourselves a 50-50 proposition. Denver’s passing game is flat under Peyton Manning, with a big “assist” coming from the offensive line’s failures. Meanwhile, the running game isn’t really doing much for the Broncos. However, the match-up comes up against a Cleveland team that will not have Joe Haden and continues to struggle against the run. Strangely enough, this come down to McCown against Manning. We need an upset pick, so we’ll try out Cleveland.
(24) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at (16) Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
This appears to be more comfortable than it actually is for the Vikings. Kansas City just lost the ultra efficient Jamaal Charles for the year, which adds to the problems that face this team. With the running game shifting gears and the defense struggling, it doesn’t work out well for ultimate game manager Alex Smith. That would make it seem well for the Vikings. However, we haven’t seen the Minnesota offense due anything to gain separation from opponents. It’s not that Teddy Bridgewater and crew are playing poorly; it’s that they lack big plays. The Vikings have only four completions of 25+ yards through four games. We take Minnesota with some reservation.
(32) Miami Dolphins (1-3) at (22) Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Dan Campbell was the last number one tight end for the Dallas Cowboys before Jason Witten emerged. You’d have to go back to 2003 for that. Now, Campbell is the interim head coach for the Dolphins. He had an extra week to instill his style of play and get the boys riled up for the remaining of the season. We still Miami responds. Cameron Wake will come to life, inciting some pun between “Wake” and “awoke.” Ndamukong Suh will also make an impact, helping the Dolphins to expose a potentially favorable match-up against a currently sack prone Marcus Mariota. Meanwhile, on offense, the Dolphins will negate Tennessee’s league-leading negative pass play defense by grinding the ball on the ground. There’s nowhere to go but up for Miami, and this is good timing for change.
(8) Carolina Panthers (4-0) at (21) Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
The Panthers have yet to face a remotely quality opponent, so this will seem like a stiff test. Hidden in Seattle’s 2-3 start is that they’ve played well enough to have a winning record — if not for that fourth-quarter defense. Last week’s collapse was particularly inexcusable, especially after the unit allowed a combined three points (excluding a Detroit defensive touchdown) in back-to-back wins. Had Seattle closed the deal on a 24-7 lead in Cincinnati, we’d possibly be talking about that defense being back to elite form. We will pick an urgent Seattle team at home, and we wait to see if the Panthers can prove us in a big match-up that has a revenge factor at play.
(20) San Diego Chargers (2-3) at (2) Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Some seem to think that the Chargers have a nice chance at pulling off the upset. However, no experts are actually biting. We don’t even see it as a question, as Green Bay’s won easily the past two weeks despite scoring a combined 41 points. The defense is quietly playing like one of the best in the league, even if there’s still doubt left in our minds about the unit. We’d make this our lock, but we already picked the Packers for that in Week 4. If you have the chance to do so, lock it in for Green Bay.
(23) Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at (25) San Francisco 49ers (1-4)
This was once supposed to be a nice Super Bowl re-match, as it’s the first meeting between the two teams since Super Bowl XLVII. The Baltimore pass defense continues to be quite awful. If the unit had been just remotely competent, the Ravens would’ve closed out the uninspiring Raiders and Browns to be 3-2 on the season. Even the inability to close out the Bengals was quite embarrassing, given the A.J. Green touchdown on the first play after the Ravens’ defensive score gave them the lead. With that mind, maybe Colin Kaepernick can actually build off his nice performance in the Meadowlands last Sunday night. However, our confidence on him is very low.
(1) New England Patriots (5-0) at (17) Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
We do not need that 11-letter buzzword to let you know that things don’t shape up well for the Colts. We do not need to take jabs at that accused or the accuser to know that the Patriots are playing like they out to prove they are every bit worthy of their elite-level billing. Indianapolis might have a winning record, but that happened thanks to three unimpressive wins against poor AFC South opponents. It honestly would be a moral victory if the Colts don’t get trounced by 20+ points.
BYE DATES: (12) St. Louis Rams (2-3), (14) Dallas Cowboys (2-3), (18) Oakland Raiders (2-3), (28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
