Week 5 saw a lot of our picks go in favor of what a majority of the experts predicted, but that’s not the case for Week 6. The batch of predictions we had back in August for this week sees a lot of picks that currently go against the grain. Therefore, we may have some adjustments, but we want to go with the favorable match-ups. If this means we stay against the grain, then so be it.
Now to the predictions for Week 6. Remember, by using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” and quality of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
This week is a bit disappointing in that we were one TABR spot away from two different games being Games of the Week. Still, there will be a massive amount of points at stake, with eight divisional games on the slate.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(17) New England Patriots (3-2) at (7) Buffalo Bills (3-2)
With the play thus far off the Patriots offense and Bills defense, this looks like a favorable match-up for the home team. However, the Patriots made the “this isn’t a good team” sentiment very short-lived. Last week’s blowout win may have turned things around for the Patriots. Furthermore, the status quo has been New England coming out victorious against the Bills, especially in big games. This game will determine who’s the AFC East favorite heading into the meat of the season. Take New England until proven otherwise.
(12) Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
This game comes as an opportunity for the Cowboys to prove themselves. It might not necessarily have to come as a victory, but after years of missed opportunities, that’s the best way to do it. Looking at the eye test, this Dallas team can pull off the win in Seattle. The running game can allow the Cowboys to control the clock and slow down the pass rush (re: short-yard third-down opportunities). Meanwhile, Tony Romo suddenly faces a human Seattle pass defense, one that certainly is feeling the bite of regression. However, the problem is that the Cowboys allow 6.38 yards per play, while the Seahawks average 6.04 yards per play on offense. That will likely be the difference maker in here. Russell Wilson (112.89 passer rating) has the match-up to play amazing yet again.
(8) New York Giants (3-2) at (15) Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)
The great fortune of seven return touchdowns and three fourth-quarter comebacks have really saved the Eagles from a poor start, record-wise. You can look at this as a scary proposition that the Eagles are 4-1 without playing well. Then again, you look at the this team as a worse team than what their record states. On the flip side, the Giants made remarkable improvements since their 0-2 start. The offense is getting in a rhythm, and the defense is still playing solid football. Road teams win often in this rivalry, so it will happen again.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(3) Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at (14) Houston Texans (3-2) **Upset of the Week**
For the first time this season, we incorrectly predicted the winner for Thursday Night Football. We stand by this choice, but the ugly first quarter and subsequent untimely mistakes and missed opportunities resulted in the comeback attempt coming up short.
(19) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at (23) Cleveland Browns (2-2)
The Steelers have vastly under-performed the past two seasons, while the Browns bring in massive momentum after completing the NFL’s hugest regular reason road comeback. By all means, it’s now or never for the Browns, and we think they certainly are competent to pull it over. However, we want to see Cleveland break the status quo after picking them to win.
(32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at (25) Tennessee Titans (1-4)
The Jaguars look quite awful again, but then again, so have the Titans. Word has it that Jake Locker may not be able to start for Tennessee, leaving Charlie Whitehurst as the starter. This makes the home team less hit or miss, which it will have to come down to Jacksonville winning straight up. We think this can happen with Blake Bortles having some good upside.
(9) Detroit Lions (3-2) at (26) Minnesota Vikings (2-3)
We love Teddy Bridgewater here at TABMathletics, but this is just not the match-up that favors him. Consider that a rookie quarterback with a poor offensive line protecting him goes up against one of the three best front sevens (with the Bills and Jets, by our estimation). We could see this win in year two, or even later in the season, but not in Teddy’s second start.
(2) San Diego Chargers (4-1) at (31) Oakland Raiders (0-4)
We can’t use this as the lock pick, but we wouldn’t if we could anyways. In fact, this is a genuine trap game. The Chargers are starting to roll, but they play a divisional game against a team that switched head coaches during the bye week. Tony Sparano made some nice connections in Oakland thus far, and the players will be motivated to play well for whoever runs this team in 2015.
(11) San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at (29) St. Louis Rams (1-3)
Look at how Colin Kaepernick has fared against the Rams in his career, even after a slow start in 2012: 66-of-102 for 767 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT (97.14 passer rating). On the flip side, Austin Davis is showing some nice upside, but he’s fallen short in close games against the Cowboys and Eagles. Expect that to happen again, and Davis going to a tough luck 1-3 as the starter.
The Rest (1 point each)
(16) Carolina Panthers (3-2) at (5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Along with the Colts-Texans game, this one is just one TABR spot away from being a GOTW. Furthermore, this is one we’re tussling with to pick a winner. We think this looks like a prime spot for the regular season home winning streak to come to an end. However, the Panthers are playing worse than expected defensively, and the Bengals are playing better than expected defensively. The run defense is the main concern for Cincinnati, but Carolina doesn’t have the healthy backs to fully expose that issue. The winning streak continues.
(13) Green Bay Packers (3-2) at (20) Miami Dolphins (2-2)
This would be the type of game where the Packers get upset, but hold off on the upset special. The 1-2 start cleared out any early-season jitters, and Aaron Rodgers is performing well since his “R-E-L-A-X” declaration. Now, it seems more like the type of stretch in which the Packers will start to roll and put up a huge winning streak. Miami may make it interesting, but nothing more.
(1) Denver Broncos (3-1) at (29) New York Jets (1-4)
This is just a brutal stretch for the Jets, and it’s a shame that most people are taking it out on Geno Smith. Let’s be honest, Mike Vick wouldn’t be doing any better record-wise. Or Mark Sanchez. Or most quarterbacks, to be fair.
(10) Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at (30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
This match-up looks juicy for a Ravens offense looking to bounce back after a setback in Indianapolis. Baltimore scored on 50 percent of its possessions through the first four games, and that rate could be replicated against what’s been arguably the worst pass defense through five weeks. Tampa Bay is playing better as of late, but it’s not enough to win.
(21) Chicago Bears (2-3) at (22) Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
It’s just amazing how the Bears didn’t win last week. By all means, Chicago looked like the better team in the first half, but the team made untimely plays and allowed Carolina to be within seven at the break. Then the Bears choked the game away with key mistakes in the fourth quarter. Now this team is at its make or break with an afternoon game in Atlanta. The Falcons are a very tough out at home. However, the match-up favors the Bears. Atlanta ranks dead last with 7.82 net passing yards allowed per dropback. Chicago has three towering receiving threats and arguably the league’s best safety valve in the backfield. We endorsed Chicago as a playoff team in 2014, and this is the make or break game to see if that statement remains a possibility. Lose this one, and our confidence in the Bears is over.
(27) Washington Redskins (1-4) at (6) Arizona Cardinals (3-1) **Lock of the Week**
Not too long ago, this game looked like the potential Upset of the Week. Instead of Logan Thomas potentially getting the start, Drew Stanton got cleared to play and Carson Palmer is seeing legitimate and significant medical improvement for his nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. We believe in Greg Roskopf and his brand of Muscle Action Techniques, so Palmer may even start. After facing four tough opponents and going 3-1, we don’t Arizona losing at home with Palmer or Stanton under center.