For a while in Week 6, it looked like we were going back on the correct path. Sure, we didn’t pull the trigger on the Saints upset, but we had the Browns upset pick going to overtime. Meanwhile, we had correctly navigated the Lions-Texans-Dolphins trifecta.
That’s when everything went downhill. The Browns couldn’t capitalize on an overtime interception, eventually losing on a Denver field goal. The Ravens then continued their defensive free fall by being beat deep several times by the 49ers. Finally, after a nice start for a drive and a half, the Giants laid an egg on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia. And thus, our bad situation gets worse.
Could it be time for us to hit the panic button? Let’s show the results and discuss.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(4) Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at (9) Buffalo Bills (3-2)
(15) Washington Redskins (2-3) at (6) New York Jets (3-1) **Lock of the Week**
(7) Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at (11) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
(10) New York Giants (3-2) at (13) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(3) Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at (27) New Orleans Saints (1-4)
(26) Chicago Bears (2-3) at (31) Detroit Lions (0-5)
(29) Houston Texans (1-4) at (30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
The Rest (1 point each)
(5) Denver Broncos (5-0) at (19) Cleveland Browns (2-3) **Upset of the Week**
(24) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at (16) Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
(32) Miami Dolphins (1-3) at (22) Tennessee Titans (1-3)
(8) Carolina Panthers (4-0) at (21) Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
(20) San Diego Chargers (2-3) at (2) Green Bay Packers (5-0)
(23) Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at (25) San Francisco 49ers (1-4)
(1) New England Patriots (5-0) at (17) Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 8-6 and 14 points (out of 25 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 55-36 and 89 points (60.44 win and 59.73 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-2 this week (9-7 overall… 56.25 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 2-2 this week (17-10 overall… 62.96 win percentage) [includes 1-3 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 1-5 overall (16 ranking points… 16.67 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 5-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks, Packers, Giants, Jets… best streak: four weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 64-27 | 1 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 101 | |
| 2 | C. Carter | 62.29 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 101 | |
| 3 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 61-30 | 3 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 97 | |
| 4 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 60-31 | 4 | V. Iyer | 96 | |
| 4 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 60-31 | 5 | Don Banks, SI | 95 | |
| 4 | C. Mortensen | 60-31 | 5 | T. Jackson | 95 | |
| 7 | D. Banks | 59-32 | 7 | J. Bell | 94 | |
| 7 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 59-32 | 7 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 94 | |
| 7 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 59-32 | 7 | K. Johnson | 94 | |
| 10 | Nate Davis, USAT | 58-33 | 10 | N. Davis | 93 | |
| 10 | M. Faulk | 58-33 | 10 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 93 | |
| 10 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 58-33 | 12 | M. Golic | 92 | |
| 10 | M. Irvin | 58-33 | 12 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 92 | |
| 10 | R. Jaworski | 58-33 | M | Mean Points | 91.56 | |
| 10 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 58-33 | 14 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 91 | |
| M | Mean Record | 57.52-33.48 | 15 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 90 | |
| 16 | K. Joyner | 57-34 | 16 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 89 | |
| 17 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 56-35 | 16 | M. Hoge | 89 | |
| 18 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 55-36 | 16 | P. Prisco | 89 | |
| 18 | A. Dobrowolski | 55-36 | 16 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 89 | |
| 18 | S. Wickersham | 55-36 | 16 | K. Warner | 89 | |
| 21 | A. Caplan | 54-37 | 21 | M. Ditka | 87 | |
| 21 | Football Outsiders | 54-37 | 21 | FB Outsiders | 87 | |
| 21 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 54-37 | 21 | S. Mariucci | 87 | |
| 21 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 54-37 | 24 | M. Schlereth | 85 | |
| 25 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 52-39 | 25 | E. Allen | 80 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Ouch. We continue to drop in these standings and continue to embarrass ourselves in this competition, relative to our expectations. Remember, we dominated this competition in both 2013 and 2014, winning each season by eight games and at least 17 points. Better yet, we defeated all entries logged on the NFL Pickwatch prediction logs in both seasons, winning in 2013 by three games and winning in 2014 by eight games. Those times have swiftly changed in 2015, as we rank in a tie for 84th out of the 134 experts who predicted all 91 games from Weeks 1 through 6, according to NFL Pickwatch. We trail the red-hot Gordon McGuinness of Pro Football Focus by a whole 12 games in those standings. Note that we topped McGuinness by 15 games last year and by 24 games in 2013.
So do we truly have that much in which to worry? For now, there isn’t. Through the first two seasons of this competition, we were 20 games (Ron Jaworski) and 43 points (Don Banks) ahead of the respective nearest competitor among this group. Meanwhile, the only NFL Pickwatch entry we are certain beat out Jaworski was Accuscore, and we were still 19 games ahead through the end of the 2014 season. Accuscore is only four games better than us, likely leaving our top spot well in tact over the three-year period.
Leading up to Week 7, we will have take mere baby steps. Let’s just focus on getting one or two correct picks against the grain.