If the 2014 Cowboys season was going to be anything like that of previous years under Jason Garrett, this team would be 3-3 at this point in the season. We say this not just because Garrett’s teams finished 8-8 in each of his three full seasons thus far, but because everything about these Cowboys teams pointed to a 3-3 start in the context of the schedule.
DeMarco Murray (29) and Gavin Escobar (89) celebrate the Cowboys’ go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown during the 30-23 win in Seattle. (photo rights to Steven Bisig / USA TODAY Sports)
The first three weeks went as planned, with a mistake-filled in the season opener to the 49ers being followed by wins against two inferior teams. Of course, in typical Cowboys fashion, one of those wins came comfortably and the other came as painfully as a toothache. The win over the Titans saw the usual bounce back win, while win over the Rams only came after a 21-0 deficit and a rough afternoon trying to stop Austin Davis. By all means, it seemed like this team was about to go down the path of mediocrity yet again, complete with a December collapse.
Three weeks later, the football nation now wonders if the Cowboys are possibly the best team in the NFL. So what has changed? First, the Cowboys dismantled a Saints team that has owned the rivalry since Sean Payton became head coach in New Orleans. Dallas showed up big on Sunday Night Football and controlled the progression of the game from the opening drive, leading to a 38-17 win. Then, the Cowboys avoided a letdown by finishing out a 20-17 overtime win against Houston despite several signs of a potential collapse. Finally, the Cowboys overcame a few potential coup de grace moments to defeat the Seahawks in Seattle by a 30-23 score. The Cowboys manhandled the most physically-imposing team.
With this landmark victory, are the Cowboys “for real” as a playoff contender? Better yet, with the team physically dominating proven opponents, are they “for real” as a Super Bowl contender?
Looking at the team’s drive stats and per-play stats, it looks like there’s only two areas of concern holding this team back. While doing a fantastic job of controlling the scoreboard and controlling the clock, the defense continues to struggle with its putrid per-play efficiency. In fact, the Dallas defense has thus far allowed slightly more yards per play this year than it did during its disastrous 2013 campaign. Furthermore, the offense is struggling to consistently protecting the football, leading to 12 giveaways in six games this season. When we look deeper at the numbers, we find a stunning dynamic that could suggest even better days are to come in Big D.
The Dallas Cowboys Offense: Finally, A Balanced Unit!
The Dallas offense looks like one of the best units in the league — as long as the unit doesn’t turn the ball over. As expected, the team is seeing the unfavorable bounces when it comes to recovering fumbles. Last year’s team recovered six more fumbles than expected (per Football Perspective), gaining possession on 23 of 34 possible fumble opportunities (on offense and defense). This year, the team gained possession on only seven of 16 possible fumble opportunities. This played a role in the team losing seven fumbles in six games. Of those fumbles lost, you have the following culprits: DeMarco Murray (four times), Dwayne Harris (twice on punt returns) and Tony Romo (caused by an ill-timed snap by Travis Frederick). The fumble rate might regress, but the fumble recovery percentage will not.
Because of those fumbles, the Cowboys are averaging two giveaways per game, which sets them up for a disappointing ranking in turnover percentage (per drive). Other than that, this offense looks fantastic, as shown below:
- 5.97 yards per play (6th) on 7.11 net yards per dropback (9th) and 4.81 yards per rush attempt (5th)
- 2.47 points (5th) and 37.3 yards (2nd, behind only New Orleans) on 6.5 plays per drive (3rd, behind New Orleans and San Diego)
- 2.22 first downs per drive (2nd, behind only New Orleans)
- 46.9 scoring percentage (3rd, behind only Baltimore and San Diego) and 15.4 turnover percentage (24th)
- 3:15 average time length of drive (2nd, behind only San Diego)
If the Cowboys can fix the fumbling issues, this offense will be a legitimate playoff-quality offense. Tony Romo gets criticized like a mistake-prone quarterback, but honestly, he’s more reliable protecting the football than most. He’ll have the occasional mistake-filled dud, and one of those games already happened against the 49ers. At most, he’ll probably have only one more such game this season.
If we were to look at the drive-based and per-play efficient, the team’s weakest game was during Week 2 in Tennessee. Dallas averaged only 4.84 yards per game. Besides that, the 5.72-yard average in Seattle was the team’s worst of the season. However, that average is still great when you consider it happened on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions. When it’s all considered, this offense is truly rolling over the past four weeks, and we think the production won’t drop off much if it all for the rest of the regular season.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Going Beyond Regression?
We expected the Dallas defense to experience a heavy dose of regression, but perhaps not be any better than a bottom third defense in the NFL. However, the Cowboys defense is painting a different story in 2014. They look like a legitimately improved unit.
Check out where they rank:
- 6.08 yards per play (30th) on 6.72 net yards per dropback (21st) and 5.11 yards per rush attempt (31st)
- 1.64 points (7th) and 32.1 yards (19th) on 5.4 plays per drive (7th)
- 1.56 first downs per drive (5th)
- 29.7 scoring percentage (6th) and 15.6 turnover percentage (9th)
- 2:29 average time length of drive (9th)
As you can clearly see here, the team is still struggling to stop team from racking up yardage, but this defense is getting teams off the field quickly and not hemorrhaging points in the process. THAT is where this team differs right now, because Dallas is actually allowing a small fraction of a yard more per play in 2014 than last year.
So how is this possible? Before allowing just a 4.29-yard average on a per-play basis in Seattle, the Cowboys allowed at least 5.85 yards per play in each game. And it’s not like Dallas played the best of offenses, as the Saints have the only offense to rank among the league’s best. However, Big D hasn’t faced a poor offense either. In total, the six opponents average 5.75 yards per play, which would make that offense on average a borderline playoff-quality team. We need to look at this deeper.
The “worst” game for Dallas was against the Saints, a game in which the Cowboys held a shutout at halftime and won by 21. Yet, somehow, they allowed an awful-looking 7.42 yards per play. However, New Orleans ran 46 pass play in its 59 total plays from scrimmage, which would lend to a high per-play average. Add in that one of the 13 rush attempted allowed was 62-yarder, and that’s going to spell for bad numbers. However, only this and the Titans saw Dallas face passes on more at least two-thirds of the plays.
There’s just no way around it, the defense needs to put up numbers in this area. The good news, though, comes with the regression we predicted for the Cowboys defense. The odds favor Dallas allowing fewer than six yards per play, so this defensive issue will be remedied in part by the regression that’s still to come. Perhaps it’s possible the Cowboys defense plays even better over the final 10 games. And if the team continues to do well by limiting points and first downs, it could have success in the postseason.
The Dallas Cowboys Special Teams: Holding Its Own
With the league’s most accurate kicker ever in Dan Bailey and capable returner in Dwayne Harris, the team just needs to play solid with the coverage units to hold its own. That’s the case so far, so we can move on from here.
Conclusion: This Team IS For Real
As long as this team doesn’t get sloppy in its mentality, the offense will continue to put this team in position to win. DeMarco Murray is currently the league’s best back, and it’s not a shocking development. After all, he led the league in DVOA last year, according to Football Outsiders. Dallas will need to scale back his usage some, so it should be a goal for the Cowboys to eventually sprinkle in more usage of Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle. Other than that, the biggest challenge for the offense will be for Tony Romo to play well in the first quarter, something he’s historically failed to do (but he did improve in that area in 2013). If he handles that quarter well, Dallas will be in position to keep winning football games without having to worry about nail-biting finish after nail-biting finish.
The defense seems to have legitimately improved in all areas but the one that is due for regression. Therefore, the defense’s success in December and perhaps January will come down to the team’s ability to get a pass rush. The secondary is performing well, while the team’s overall pursuit is admirable. However, when going up the league’s best quarterback in the postseason, the pass rush is needed to disrupt opponents. That might be the weakness that causes this team’s downfall.
However, we don’t expect to happen until January. This team looks like the NFC East favorite right now.