Tony Romo’s Worst Quarter (and It’s Not What You Think)

When most recall one image of Tony Romo, it’s the one of him sitting on the Qwest Field (now CenturyLink Field) turf, with his two hands wringing over his facemask. The image symbolizes of what the masses see as the “typical Tony Romo choke.” You know it goes. The Dallas Cowboys are in great position to win or comeback. It’s during a close, late game at a crucial juncture of the season and/or in the national spotlight. However, the Romo blunder coughs the game away, spiraling the Cowboys right back to mediocrity.

However, when context of that photo is considered, the image symbolizes much more. The image also symbolizes the blatant misconception of what ails Tony Romo as the starting quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. As we delve into the context of this image, and use it to set the foundation of the Romo myth, we will learn that there is a notable kernel of truth to the overblown criticisms. In a profound way, there criticisms are inaccurate while addressing the correct Romo theme. That “typical Tony Romo choke” is not a product of a quarterback that shrivels up during the game’s biggest moments, but rather a product of a quarterback that does not have the killer instincts to dominate that “elite” quarterbacks, or even Romo’s peers, bring to the field.

Don’t look at the fourth quarter as Tony Romo’s source of tragedy. Look at the first quarter as the setting for Romo’s constant struggle to be as good as his numbers suggest.

Romo is consoled after fumbling late in the 2006 NFC Wild Card loss to the Seahawks. (photo rights to AP / John Froschauer)

So now let’s talk about this image. As mentioned, this symbolizes to the masses the “typical Tony Romo choke.” After all, in this playoff game, the Cowboys lost the chance to get the lead late in the fourth quarter because of a Romo fumble. It was an epic blunder in many aspects. However, the masses have the sentiment all wrong, because they ignore the context of this play as it pertains to the game.

Take note of a few things:

1. This play happened when Romo was still a holder for field goals. He has not held for field goals since then, save for emergency duty or injury replacement duty. Thus, this is not a “typical” Romo situation anymore.
2. Romo still nearly got the first down (and even a touchdown), but Jordan Babineaux made a truly game-saving play to tackle Romo. The focus of blame is largely a product of Romo’s stature as the Dallas starting quarterback. For comparison, few say Nick Harper “choked” when he took a poor angle after recovering Jerome Bettis’ infamous fumble in the 2005 AFC Divisional Round between the Colts and Steelers. Instead, they focus on Ben Roethlisberger’s shoestring tackle.
3. Before the field goal attempt, the Cowboys had a first down until the play-review process determined that they were actually about one yard short of the first down. The argument could be made (and was made at the time of the play by yours truly) to go for the first down, because it was a short distance at the Seattle two-yard line. If the Cowboys missed, they at least had the Seahawks pinned back with all three timeouts left to stop the clock.
4. The Cowboys actually had the Seahawks pinned back — and still failed to stop them. Shaun Alexander took the first carry for 20 yards to gain a critical first down and take all pressure off Seattle punter Ryan Plackemeier. He still punted only 26 yards to give Dallas a last-second heave to the end zone. Imagine if he did that in the shadow of his own end zone with a minute left on the clock, instead of seven seconds left to go. That first down was HUGE.
5. A field goal conversion did not guarantee a Dallas victory by any means. If it was good, the Cowboys go ahead 23-21 with about 1:14 left. The Seahawks would’ve had a kick return on hand (as Martin Gramatica was not kicking touchbacks in that game), and the Cowboys defense would then need to make a stop. The 2006 Cowboys allowed 132 points in the final four regular season games. The 2006 Seahawks had a starting quarterback one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance. It very easily could’ve been a 24-23 Seahawks victory had Romo not fumbled.
6. There were still other critical Cowboys errors in the fourth quarter. See in particular the Terry Glenn fumble on a Cowboys pass at their own two-yard line, which leads to a safety and Seahawks ball for their go-ahead touchdown drive.

That took a lot to explain. Sure, it does not fully excuse Tony Romo for his fumble. However, all of this shows that there’s much more than meets eye than this “typical Tony Romo choke.” We need to understand that this play and it’s context is EXACTLY the dynamic we’re dealing with in terms of Romo’s career as a whole. One cannot excuse his late-game blunders, but there’s a lot more to his story than just those epic moments of tragic failure. Of his chief problems, the fourth-quarter “chokes” are far from being top of the list.

For the sake of this article, we’re going to ignore individual game context, even if they play a huge role in most of his notable fourth-quarter “chokes.” Also, we’re going to ignore a questionable supporting cast (re: unimpressive coaching staffs, questionable game management, other players with the same propensity for key mistakes as Romo, etc.) in this article. Today, we are just going to focus on what Tony Romo fails to do before the fourth quarter to limit his notable gaffes. That part tells us the most about Romo himself.

First, let’s understand that the fourth quarter is NOT Romo’s worst. In fact, some evidence suggests it can be argued as his best. One key stat should be noted when it comes to Tony Romo and the fourth quarter. His 101.86 career passer rating in the fourth quarter (through 2012) tops all active quarterbacks coming into this season. We doubt that one week made a difference as to who’s #1. While we don’t have the year-by-year individual ranks for fourth-quarter Offensive Passer Rating, Sporting Charts published the year-by-year team ranks. Check out where Cowboys rank in the five years Romo was the team’s full starter, with at least 12 starts.

• 2007 (13-3): 100.7 Q4OPR, 4th in NFL
• 2008 (9-7): 113.4 Q4OPR, 1st in NFL
• 2009 (11-5): 103.4 Q4OPR, 4th in NFL
• 2011 (8-8): 102.2 Q4OPR, 5th in NFL
• 2012 (8-8): 103.5 Q4OPR, 4th in NFL

If that anything, that suggests Romo can be seen as a consistent asset in the fourth quarter. Each year, the Cowboys finished in the top five and owned a passer rating in triple digits. Of course, some will criticize that Romo inflates his stats in comeback mode, only to flop in the close games. Here at TABMathletics, we don’t believe in making conclusions based on specific (re: limited) subsets, but we’ll oblige regardless. According to Scott Kacsmar, the first man to monitor “fourth-quarter comeback” (4QC) and “game-winning drive” (GWD) records with the proper application, Romo entered 2013 ranked ninth among active quarterbacks (with at least 10 qualifying games) in 4QC win percentage and 12th in GWD win percentage. His 19-27 GWD record ranks better than Philip Rivers (16-36) and Aaron Rodgers (9-24). This doesn’t look like a habitual choke artist, even if Romo falls short of the expectations built by his stats.

Furthermore, between 2011 and 2012, the Cowboys are 9-10 when Romo has a game-winning drive opportunity in the fourth quarter or overtime. All nine of those wins also had to come in comeback fashion. So then what’s the deal with this reputations? Obviously, the masses won’t forget the notable gaffes late in games when these games are on national television. As Kacsmar noted, Romo has 10 total make-or-break turnovers in his 27 losses in GWD situations. This includes notable ones like:

• The interception to R.W. McQuarters in the waning seconds of the 2007 NFC Divisional Round loss to the Giants
• The pick-six during a tie ball game with the Steelers in a December 2008 loss (after leading 13-3)
• The Darrelle Revis interception in the 2011 season opener to set up a Jets win via field goal
• The (unofficial) game-ending interception to Rob Jackson in last year’s win-or-go-home game against the Redskins

Why are the critiques so heavy if Romo isn’t a true choke artist? Then again, why is Romo not dominating in the fourth quarter like his stats suggest? When looking for the answers, just think about his GWD record over the last two years. He played 19 games that went down to the wire over the last two-plus years! That’s because he fails to surge ahead of his opponents, and it shows with his unimpressive passer rating in the first quarter. The table below shows a year-to-year statistical breakdown by quarter.

Table 1: Tony Romo Passing Numbers, by Quarter (regular season only)

KEY: Passes – Attempts – Yards – TD – INT (Rating)
NOTE: Tony Romo did not attempt a regular season pass in either 2004 or 2005.

Note that we excluded yesterday’s season-opening game against the Giants, which we’ll talk about that later. Also, note that the overtime numbers were included with the fourth quarter numbers. Those numbers (13-22-259-1-0) make a negligible impact on Romo’s fourth quarter numbers. Plus, overtime situations very much reflect the fourth quarter situations at the crux of this discussion.

It’s as clear as possible which quarter presents the problem for Romo. From 2006 to 2012, the NFL combined to put up an 81.56 passer rating. This means his first quarter passer rating is 4.92 points worse than the league average. Romo’s career relative passer rating is +14.06 over the seven years. Thus, we see nearly a 19-point difference when the subset is spotlighted. This dynamic could be at an unprecedented level, and it’s honestly what prevents the Cowboys signal caller from being an “elite” quarterback. Just look at Romo in the regular season only (excluding this year’s Week 1 games) compared to the four “elite” quarterbacks right now.

• Tony Romo (55-38 record, .591 win pct.): 95.62 career passer rating, 76.64 rating in first quarter
• Tom Brady (136-39 record, .777 win pct): 96.92 career passer rating, 96.81 rating in first quarter
• Drew Brees (99-70 record, .586 win pct): 94.27 career passer rating, 96.87 rating in first quarter
• Peyton Manning (154-70 record, .688 win pct): 95.71 career passer rating, 100.51 rating in first quarter
• Aaron Rodgers (52-26 record, .667 win pct): 104.93 career passer rating, 106.17 rating in first quarter

While Rodgers stands out better than anyone on the list, in terms of passer rating, note that his biggest problem involves the fourth-quarter comeback. His 4QC win percentage ranks 22nd of 23 active qualifying quarterbacks. Besides him, Romo owns a comparable career rating to the rest of the elites. However, his first quarter passer rating falls much closer to the likes of Mark Sanchez (67.22) and Blaine Gabbert (76.48) than the top four quarterbacks in the league. That should say a lot.

Now’s let look Romo’s peers (excluding this year’s Week 1 games), which involves the second tier of quarterbacks. They are split into two groups: (1) winners without statistical dominance and (2) statistically strong quarterbacks who aren’t standout winners.

• Tony Romo (55-38 record, .591 win pct): 95.62 career passer rating, 76.64 rating in first quarter
• Joe Flacco (54-26 record, .675 win pct): 86.34 career passer rating, 88.50 rating in first quarter
• Eli Manning (78-57 record, .578 win pct): 82.71 career passer rating, 80.52 rating in first quarter
• Philip Rivers (70-42 record, .625 win pct): 94.53 career passer rating, 94.92 rating in first quarter
• Ben Roethlisberger (87-39 record, .690 win pct): 92.69 career passer rating, 96.58 rating in first quarter
• Matt Ryan (56-22 record, .718 win pct): 90.88 career passer rating, 96.96 rating in first quarter

Once again, the star of this show came up short. It now follows why Romo can put up better overall numbers than his peers, but does not have the winning pedigree of this group of quarterbacks. Perhaps there’s some irony to note that the second of two win-or-go-home losses for Romo against Manning came in the lone year in which he put up strong first-quarter numbers. The 2011 Cowboys blew five fourth-quarter leads, including a Week 14 loss at home to the Giants. That set up a Week 17 loss in a game to determine the NFC East champions. The 2011 Giants followed up that win by also winning Super Bowl XLVI. Romo’s peers can tell him how important it is to give his teammates more than one year of first-quarter dominance. Flacco and Manning won three Super Bowls, but that came with a combined 29-19 record in those seasons. If a quarterback struggles early in the regular season, it won’t get better in the playoffs.

So really how important is it for Romo to start off the game well? Just think of the added pressure put of a team that trails. It follows with continuous logic that the team holds the lead through one quarter generally more likely to win a football game than the team that trails. With Romo’s poor first quarter stats, he puts team at less favorable odds to win than his peers’ teams. Using Advanced NFL Stats’ win probability calculator, a team has no better than a 44.4 percent chance of winning (given a possession-neutral situation) if it trails after the first quarter. This drops to about 38 percent if the deficit is three points. It falls to 27 percent with the deficit increases to seven points. You can toy around with more scenarios, including possession and down/distance, by clicking the link.

Throughout his career, Romo and the Cowboys have struggled to get the first-quarter lead with the regularity of a true winner. Overall, the Cowboys held a lead through one quarter in only 33 of Romo’s 93 starts. They went 22-11 in those games. Meanwhile, they trailed in 30 of those starts (12-18) and were tied in 30 other starts (21-9) at the first quarter’s turn. Without crunching all the numbers, it is safe to assume that Dallas has on average something very close to an expected 50 winning percentage, based on first quarter play alone.

Finally, let’s apply this dynamic to Sunday night’s win against the Giants. In the 36-31 win, the Cowboys nearly blew a 27-10 lead. However, that lead could’ve been even bigger if not for an early Romo mistake. A red zone interception set up a Giants field goal to make the score tied 3-3 through one quarter. Dallas held a 63.3 percent of winning at that point, according Pro Football Reference’s Win Probability Model. Meanwhile, Romo went 8-of-13 for 52 yards and an interception in the quarter, good for only a 37.98 rating. He finished completing 36 of 49 passes for 263 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. That makes a 90.77 rating.

Once again, that first quarter lull played a role in making the game a lot more interesting than it should. Eventually, it’ll lead to a fourth-quarter “choke” at some point in this season, and the masses will claim once again that Romo can’t win in the big moments. And once again, the overwhelming truth of Romo’s underwhelming first quarter play will be overlooked.