Editor’s Note: Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we will profile each team that clinches a postseason berth. We will look at each team’s stats as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. We will show parts of the statistical profile today, but we will need to wait until Tuesday to show the league ranking (and remaining profile) for each stat. Those updates will be integrated below within this post. These rankings will illustrate each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the point in which the team clinched a postseason berth.
Vastly outplaying our expectations of taking a step back in the AFC, the Bengals put together what could possibly end up to the greatest regular season in franchise history. An 8-0 start was a franchise-best, but the success went even beyond record. The offense was perhaps its most dynamic ever, while defense saw marked improvements in areas that were historically bad last year. However, what causes concern for this team can all be in captured in one moment: Andy Dalton’s failed tackle after an unusual interception last Sunday. Dalton, whose playoff flops hinder this team’s Super Bowl chances greatly, suffered a break in his throwing hand. His status for the postseason is unknown, which creates a problem of its own if the offense takes a considerable step back with A.J. McCarron under center. Using the Four Postseason Factors as a means of content, we examine today what areas of Cincinnati’s game already fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender and what areas may need improvement. The examined stats relate to team balance, coaching quality, overall efficiency and playoff team precedence.
Team Balance: Powerful in the Passing and Scoring Battles, but Then What?
When looking at team balance, the powerful passing game establishing by Dalton before injury obviously won’t be enough to create a contender. The Bengals need to be sufficient the other five areas of the game that make up “team balance” in our Four Postseason Factors (FPF) feature. Without Dalton, this becomes all that much more important. The run offense will need to take pressure off McCarron by becoming more prominent, while the defense needs to play well to put the offense in good field position and game situations. So are the Bengals up to challenge, according to their statistical profile? Check it out below. Note that these stats were first used during last year’s FPF analysis. That analysis helped us to go 18-4 within the last two NFL postseasons in the Pick’em competition.
Table 1: Cincinnati Bengals Statistical Profile (through Week 15)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 105.39 | 7.64 | 37.47 | 5.74 | 49.3% | Run Offense | 99.86 | 3.81 | 21.62 | 17.33 | -3.6% | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | |
| Pass Defense | 79.31 | 5.80 | 31.03 | 6.45 | -5.5% | Run Defense | 87.34 | 4.32 | 22.19 | 13.67 | -17.7% | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | |
| Scoring Efficiency | +5.83 | +10.31 | +3.14 | +16.33 | 2.9% | Quality Tests | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0-3 | +6 |
OPR: Offensive Passer Rating, NY/D: Net Yards per Dropback, 1st%: First Down Percentage, Sack%: Sack Percentage,
DVOA: Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (all rights to this stat belong to Football Outsiders), DPR: Defensive Passer Rating,
NYA/D: Net Yards Allowed per Dropback, NY/P: Net Yards per Point Scored, REL: Relative Scoring Average, 3rd%: Third Down Percentage Differential,
RZ%: Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, ORR: Offensive Rusher Rating (first analyzed on Cold, Hard Football Facts),
YPA: Rush Yards per Attempt, OHI: Offensive Hog Index (created by CHFF), DRR: Defensive Rusher Rating (CHFF), DHI: Defensive Hog Index (CHFF),
vQO: W-L v. Quality Opponents, vPO: W-L v. Playoff Opponents, QRW: Quality Road Wins, PL3: Playoff W-L from 2012-14, DDWD: Double-Digit Win Differential
This team clearly would love to hinge its playoff life on its ability to win the passing battle. Just by comparing the pass offense numbers to the pass defense numbers, you can see the gap between Cincinnati and its opponents. However, with McCarron manning the helm indefinitely, these numbers don’t properly reflect when the team currently stands. The team’s scoring efficiency likely will take a hit as well, and that look every bit as good as the passing strength, pending the rankings. Check those out below.
Table 2: Cincinnati Bengals Statistical Rankings (through Week 15)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 3rd | 2nd | 4th | 16th | 2nd | 5.4 | Run Offense | 4th | 24th | 18th | t-17th | 10th | 14.7 | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | Mean | |
| Pass Defense | 6th | 5th | 5th | 13th | 6th | 7.0 | Run Defense | 18th | 23rd | 16th | 11th | 10th | 15.6 | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Mean | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | Mean | |
| Scoring Efficiency | 2nd | 4th | t-12th | 2nd | 8th | 5.7 | Quality Tests | t-6th | t-6th | t-3rd | 20th | t-2nd | 9.2 |
See Table 1 for the statistical legend.
The pass offense and scoring went hand-and-hand together with Dalton under center, and that very much will lead this team if he can come back healthy and ready. This team looks similar to the 2014 Cowboys (5.0) in mean rank in the passing game, while it would rank second in Scoring Efficiency Mean Rank last year. However, the pass defense may be the promising unit of all, as it would have ranked best in the postseason last year. The 2015 Bengals even top the 2014 Seahawks (7.2) in Pass Defense Mean Rank.
Cincinnati would be best served improving in the run game on both sides of the ball, especially if Dalton is out or can’t return to top form. As it stands now, this team isn’t performing on the ground to a postseason-quality level. The gaudy Offensive Rusher Rating is an outlier for an otherwise mediocre unit on offense, while the defense stands out in no particular way. Names like Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard and Domata Peko must be at the forefront of this surge. Otherwise, there’s a potential bad match-up awaiting the Bengals.
Coaching Quality: Playoff Win = White Whale
During last year’s FPF analysis, we gave Marvin Lewis a poor grade among the 12 postseason head coaches. This will likely be the same, with Marvin Lewis owning an 0-6 postseason record as the Bengals head coach. A playoff win seems to be his “white whale,” and it’s certainly something that will reflect poorly on this team come playoff time. The Bengals likely will face a match-up in this factor for most of the postseason. We simply don’t trust this team to win the big game if the match-up is even among the other three factors.
Overall Efficiency: TABRankings See a Super Bowl Contender
As of the Week 14 TABRankings, the Bengals ranked fourth in the league. In fact, they almost double the league average in True TABR. This team is an unquestioned legitimate Super Bowl contender, according to our efficiency rankings. Odds are they will hold the match-up advantage for this factor against any opponent they may face at home (assuming New England earns the AFC’s first seed).
Playoff Team Precedence: One Looming Red Flag, but Nothing Elsewhere
Finally, we look at playoff team precedence. We first delved into this type of analysis when we tested key factors of precedence for Cold, Hard Football Facts. That eventually evolved into our Super Bowl Super Study. If you examine that study, you’ll see our 13 key factors for playoff team precedence. Looking at the Bengals, there’s the obvious problem with previous postseasons that stands out.
- The Home-Away Split: Owns a 5-2 home record and 6-1 away record… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Divisional Success: Owns a 4-1 record v. the AFC North… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Season Starts and Finishes: Started 8-0 and finish is to be determined… flag-free with one win in final two games
- Maximum Losing Streaks: Owns a maximum two-game losing streak… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Single-Season Improvements: Will improve 0.5-2.5 games this season… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Starting Quarterback Experience: Andy Dalton is 0-4 in the postseason, while A.J. McCarron has no postseason starts
- Success v. Non-Quality Opponents: Owns a 7-0 record v. NQO with two one-possession wins… projects to be flag-free
- Success v. Playoff Teams: Owns a 1-1 record v. playoff teams… flag status pending six more playoff berths to be clinched
- Blowout Losses: Suffered no blowout losses… projects to be flag-free
- Turnover Margin per Game: Owns +0.64 Turnover Margin per Game… projects to be flag-free
- Point Differential per Game: Owns +9.64 Point Differential per Game… projects to be flag-free
- Passer Rating Differential: Owns 26.08 Passer Rating Differential… projects to be flag-free
- Yards per Play Differential: Owns +0.56 Yards per Play Differential… projects to be flag-free
Note that we labeled any playoff team with three or fewer points as a “true Super Bowl contender” during last year’s FPF analysis. Because one red flag costs the Bengals three points, they must finish strong with a win at Denver or home against Baltimore. That would ensure the team avoids a potential second flag. Meanwhile, with four AFC postseason berths still to be clinched, the Bengals are a mere formality away from guaranteed flag-free status in the eighth key factor. Cincinnati will earn that necessary second win once Pittsburgh or Kansas City punches its tickets (re: at least one of those teams WILL get into the postseason).
Therefore, the Dalton playoff drought is the lone “white whale” involved with this team’s playoff hopes. Then again, if Dalton can’t play, that could put the authenticity of the other postseason factors in doubt.
FINAL ASSESSMENT: GET DALTON HEALTHY BEFORE THINKING BIG
By all means, we see ample reason to consider the Bengals to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender — as long as Andy Dalton return to the starting lineup in previous form. If he can’t play, or if he comes back at much less than 100 percent, we can’t envision this team getting past at least two highly qualified AFC opponents. However, if Dalton gets this team back to peak form, a Super Bowl run could be in the cards. We know for certain that in this case, a postseason match-up against the Patriots might be one downfall. Given the playoff histories of Bill Belichick (22-9 postseason record) and Marvin Lewis (0-6 postseason record), we know where we’re leaning in a head-to-head situation. If Cincinnati earns the AFC’s two seed, it would be a big help for the Patriots to go one-and-done.