With the NFL postseason set to begin, we will delve into the strengths and weaknesses of the 12 playoff teams as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. To recap, we used these factors to correctly predict 10 of the 11 games last postseason. Considering team balance, coaching quality, the TABRankings and playoff team precedence, we can determine who should win postseason games.
Therefore, over a four-day span, we will look into detail at one of the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll continue this analysis today with the second factor, which is “coaching quality.”
Last February, we explained “coaching quality” as so:
We analyze the capabilities of each team’s head coach. We want to answer some key questions. First, does this coach successfully guide his team to play disciplined football? Second, does this coach motivate his players to step up the quality of play in big games? Third, does this coach strategically and schematically take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses? Finally, does this coach have playoff experience that help the team to win these hard-fought games?
To analyze this season’s postseason field, we will simply and clearly look at the four key areas that make up “coaching quality.” Each question we asked addresses one area. We will rank each team’s coaching staff on team discipline, big-game motivation, play-calling quality and playoff game management. When we find a mean rank for the teams, we’ll see which of the 12 teams possess the coaching quality of a Super Bowl contender (as well as which teams do not possess such coaching).
Note that these ranks are subjective, as we don’t have a truly quantitative way to measure these factors. For “discipline,” we focus primarily on penalties and turnovers. For “motivation,” we will do our best to see if teams can step up in big games when injured or being the underdogs. For “play-calling,” we will look at the respective systems each team employs. For “playoffs,” we will look at playoff success overall and in recent seasons. We don’t think any coaching staffs is poor, so no disrespect is intended for the lower-ranked staffs.
Table 1: Coaching Ranks by Area
| Seed | Team | Head Coach | Discipline | Motivation | Play-Calling | Playoffs | Mean Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC #1 | New England Patriots | Bill Belichick | 2nd | 3rd | 1st | 1st | 1.75 |
| NFC #2 | Green Bay Packers | Mike McCarthy | 1st | 8th | 3rd | 6th | 4.50 |
| NFC #5 | Arizona Cardinals | Bruce Arians | 3rd | 2nd | 4th | t-10th | 4.88 |
| AFC #3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Mike Tomlin | 5th | 5th | 6th | 4th | 5.00 |
| AFC #6 | Baltimore Ravens | Jon Harbaugh | 6th | 6th | 7th | 2nd | 5.25 |
| NFC #1 | Seattle Seahawks | Pete Carroll | 11th | 1st | 5th | 5th | 5.50 |
| AFC #2 | Denver Broncos | John Fox | 10th | 7th | 2nd | 3rd | 5.50 |
| AFC #4 | Indianapolis Colts | Chuck Pagano | 4th | 4th | 8th | 8th | 6.00 |
| NFC #6 | Detroit Lions | Jim Caldwell | 7th | 11th | 11th | 7th | 9.00 |
| AFC #5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Marvin Lewis | 8th | 10th | 9th | 12th | 9.75 |
| NFC #4 | Carolina Panthers | Ron Rivera | 9th | 12th | 10th | 9th | 10.00 |
| NFC #3 | Dallas Cowboys | Jason Garrett | 12th | 9th | 12th | t-10th | 10.88 |
NOTE: The entire coaching staff, not just head coach, is considered for these rankings.
It honestly goes without saying that Bill Belichick is the best head coach in the business. He is the type of coach that re-defined an era. The Patriots run like a top-notch organization, and it shows in their constant success. Beyond that, there are two clear levels of coaching in our eyes. The next seven coaching staffs are make up that next level, which either has proven winners or up-and-coming motivators. The bottom four coaching staffs still have some work to do, as they teams had recent inconsistencies.
In the context of a match-up, it might be tough to assess who has a true advantage in many cases.