In Week 4, we face a huge dilemma involving our preseason picks. If we were to stick with our August picks, we’d predict five times who are underdogs by at least 15 spots in the TABRankings. As a result, we may have a lot of amending to do. Remember, we already correctly amended pick on Thursday night, which saw the Ravens upset the Steelers.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Remember that since it’s only Week 4, this week’s predictions will generally focus much on how our 2015 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Considering that we used 75 percent weight for the 2015 season in our Week 3 TABRankings, we’ll apply similar logic here. In this case, Week 4 play will account for about 75 percent of our consideration, while the rest goes to the original predictions.
Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(14) New York Giants (1-2) at (7) Buffalo Bills (2-1)
We’re seeing the dynamics of a league with only 13 winning teams, as the 1-2 Giants take part of one of our Games of the Week. Sure, they were in great position to win over the quality Cowboys and Falcons, only to lose both of those games. However, the Bills make New York’s stiffest challenge yet. Tyrod Taylor is player better than expected, even as the defense regresses some as expected. We don’t the New York defense doing enough to stop Taylor and crew, which will put New York at a 1-3 hole.
(13) Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at (4) Denver Broncos (3-0)
Defensively, this battle should live up to Game of the Week status. However, both offenses are currently disappointments. With Minnesota owning the league’s worst relative scoring offense, we’ll give the advantage to Denver. Minnesota’s only hope is for Teddy Bridgewater to pass well intermediately and protect the ball. It would need to be a slow-paced game for the Vikings to win.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) Baltimore Ravens (0-3) at (9) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) **Amended Pick** **Upset of the Week**
We correctly predicted the Thursday Night Football match-up.
(11) New York Jets (2-1) at (27) Miami Dolphins (1-2) **Amended Pick**
Last year, a 1-2 Dolphins team headed to London with quarterback Ryan Tannehill under the hot seat. They ended up trouncing the hapless Raiders, setting up a pretty good for Tannehill for the rest of the season. Now a 1-2 Dolphins team heads to London with head coach Joe Philbin under the hot seat. However, the Jets aren’t a hapless team. They are 2-1, and the only doubt we have is if this team can regularly win without owning the turnover battle. All three games were determined by massive turnover margins. Therefore, the Jets by no means are a safe amended pick. However, we’d like to avoid a split Upset of the Week (Ravens and Dolphins are 16-spot underdogs, according to the TABRankings), so we’ll split our London pick to the Jets.
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at (15) Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
The Colts may possibly be without Andrew Luck, but our gut feeling is that he plays. Don’t expect a pretty win for the Colts, but the Jaguars simply haven’t improved enough for us to believe they pull off the road upset.
(6) Carolina Panthers (3-0) at (28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
The easy September schedule continues for the Panthers. They should be able to handle a poor Tampa Bay offense that hasn’t picked up stream yet in Jameis Winston’s first few starts.
(16) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at (24) Washington Redskins (1-2)
The Eagles were upset on the road last year in D.C., more or less ending playoff hopes for Philadelphia. We’re sure many Eagles players are amped for a bit of revenge. The Philly defense is playing well, so it could be a long day for Kirk Cousins.
(23) St. Louis Rams (1-2) at (2) Arizona Cardinals (3-0) **Amended Pick**
The Cardinals are playing like arguably the best team in the NFL, but they’ve achieved their three wins against bad teams. Their first three opponents are combined 1-8 on the season. However, we wonder if the Rams are going to turn things around and become the quality opponent we think they can be. Nick Foles hasn’t shown any ability yet to move this offense at a strong pace. Going up against an Arizona team averaging more than 40 points per game, that won’t be enough, especially in front of the Big Red crowd.
The Rest (1 point each)
(18) Houston Texans (1-2) at (8) Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
Atlanta unexpectedly won the unofficial NFC East title in September, taking down every team but Washington. Because of that, this team could have the makings of a Super Bowl contender. We’ll take them at home against the limited Texans.
(17) Oakland Raiders (2-1) at (32) Chicago Bears (0-3)
With two weeks of great offenses, the Raiders are suddenly in a great spot. They face a Bears team with a backup quarterback with a 1-11 career record (Jimmy Clausen) making the start and a defense that continue to plays terribly. Is this team grown up enough to the earn this win in a game they should be able to handle? We want the Raiders to prove themselves, so we’ll stick with our original pick from August. We’ll take the Bears to get the upset somehow, citing the road dynamic for Oakland.
(20) Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at (5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)
For a second consecutive season, the Bengals are off to a 3-0 start. Can we finally believe in this team being for real? For Kansas City, we find it important to note that the Chiefs offense is scoring on average 10 points better relative to their defensive opponents’ average. That means the Kansas City offense might actually be able to challenge this Cincinnati defense more than most think. We had the Chiefs winning this game when we made our August picks, and we’re going to stick with that.
(22) Cleveland Browns (1-2) at (21) San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Last week, the Browns lost at home to a Raiders team making a cross-country trip. We can’t imagine it panning out any better now, as they are the one making the cross-country trip. Philip Rivers isn’t playing particularly well, but he’s passing with good accuracy. That should couple well with a running game that is improving with Melvin Gordon.
(3) Green Bay Packers (3-0) at (26) San Francisco 49ers (1-2) **Lock of the Week**
The 49ers have owned the Packers in recent years, but this clearly isn’t the same San Francisco team as recent seasons. Colin Kaepernick is more turnover prone now, which hurts the offense. Meanwhile, the defense is significantly worse than before after offseason retirements. Green Bay will be able to muscle their way to victory, thanks to the Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
(10) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at (30) New Orleans Saints (0-3) **Amended Pick**
Drew Brees is expected to play, which should help the New Orleans offense greatly. However, we wonder how well his shoulder is going to hold up. With Brees at less than 100 percent, the Saints offense will certainly be less than 100 percent. Meanwhile, the defense is allowing a 112.26 Defensive Real Quarterback Rating (second-worst in the NFL). New Orleans faces a lot of uncertainly, even with the injury-hampered Cowboys. We’re taking Dallas to win an ugly affair on Sunday Night Football.
(29) Detroit Lions (0-3) at (12) Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Let’s take a moment to reflect that Week 4’s primetime games includes three of the four 0-3 teams. As we mention that, we’ll say that the Seattle factor on Monday Night Football makes the Seahawks a guaranteed victor. We can’t make it our Lock of the Week, though, given that we picked the Seahawks for that distinction last week.
BYE DATES: (1) New England Patriots (3-0) and (19) Tennessee Titans (1-2)
These are our picks submitted to NFL Pickwatch.