In terms of the TABRankings, the Week 3 outcomes occurred mostly as expected. Ten of the top 11 teams in the Week 2 TABRankings won games, with the lone loser (the fifth-ranked Cowboys) suffering defeat to a fellow Top 11 team (the 11th-ranked Falcons). Meanwhile, only one of the bottom ten teams finished Week 3 with a winning record (the 28th-ranked Raiders). This means the rankings are starting to give us a good idea how good the teams are this season. However, with adjustments from the 2014 season still present for another week, we could see some notable changes for today’s rankings. How many changes will we see?
For those who are new to the TABRankings, this is a system created long ago (and continue to tweak on almost a yearly basis) to look at the quality of play by a team. This is expected to go beyond each team’s overall record, although the standings matter a whole lot to the rankings formula. Other key factors, including outcome-based stats and efficiency stats, play a role in the formula as well. These rankings will then be used to help categorize (and even predict) games for the weekly Pick’em competition.
Here’s our formula:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
We must note that two games still don’t make a legitimate sample size, so these rankings will feature some TABR from 2014 and some TABR from 2015. The 2015 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Additionally, there will be the 2014 TABR. The two parts combine to create the True TABR for Week 3. This dynamic will continue to play out until Week 4.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 3:
(Raw TABR * 0.75) + (2014 TABR * 0.25) = True TABR
With now all that put together, the results for Week 3 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!
The TABRankings top eight:
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5
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True TABRankings — Week 3
| Rank | LW | Team | Record | Raw TABR | 2014 TABR | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New England Patriots | 3-0 | 583.61 (2nd) | 683.59 (1st) | 608.61 |
| 2 | 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-0 | 618.58 (1st) | 345.33 (10th) | 550.27 |
| 3 | 2 | Green Bay Packers | 3-0 | 492.15 (4th) | 596.28 (2nd) | 518.18 |
| 4 | 3 | Denver Broncos | 3-0 | 480.10 (5th) | 511.66 (4th) | 487.99 |
| 5 | 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3-0 | 528.51 (3rd) | 332.75 (11th) | 479.57 |
| 6 | 7 | Carolina Panthers | 3-0 | 446.56 (6th) | 289.15 (14th) | 407.21 |
| 7 | 10 | Buffalo Bills | 2-1 | 398.47 (8th) | 348.77 (9th) | 386.05 |
| 8 | 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 3-0 | 433.55 (7th) | 185.92 (21st) | 371.64 |
| 9 | 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-1 | 334.68 (10th) | 312.39 (12th) | 329.11 |
| 10 | 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-1 | 273.27 (12th) | 423.40 (6th) | 310.80 |
| 11 | 12 | New York Jets | 2-1 | 361.06 (9th) | 70.64 (27th) | 288.46 |
| 12 | 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 1-2 | 167.65 (16th) | 582.29 (3rd) | 271.31 |
| 13 | 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 2-1 | 289.54 (11th) | 145.44 (25th) | 253.52 |
| 14 | 27 | New York Giants | 1-2 | 227.99 (14th) | 196.43 (20th) | 220.10 |
| 15 | 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 1-2 | 114.22 (22nd) | 464.86 (5th) | 201.88 |
| 16 | 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1-2 | 155.25 (18th) | 291.84 (13th) | 189.40 |
| 17 | 28 | Oakland Raiders | 2-1 | 239.42 (13th) | 33.15 (28th) | 187.85 |
| 18 | 23 | Houston Texans | 1-2 | 132.90 (19th) | 288.65 (15th) | 171.84 |
| 19 | 26 | Tennessee Titans | 1-2 | 215.83 (15th) | -41.83 (32nd) | 151.42 |
| 20 | 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1-2 | 104.67 (24th) | 276.37 (16th) | 147.60 |
| 21 | 18 | San Diego Chargers | 1-2 | 121.13 (21st) | 226.29 (19th) | 147.42 |
| 22 | 19 | Cleveland Browns | 1-2 | 126.38 (20th) | 173.05 (22nd) | 138.05 |
| 23 | 21 | St. Louis Rams | 1-2 | 111.63 (23rd) | 165.58 (23rd) | 125.12 |
| 24 | 25 | Washington Redskins | 1-2 | 161.35 (17th) | -10.32 (29th) | 118.43 |
| 25 | 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 0-3 | 14.42 (28th) | 412.91 (7th) | 114.04 |
| 26 | 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 1-2 | 52.16 (26th) | 249.54 (18th) | 101.51 |
| 27 | 15 | Miami Dolphins | 1-2 | 13.79 (29th) | 253.13 (17th) | 73.63 |
| 28 | 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-2 | 93.53 (25th) | -30.59 (31st) | 62.50 |
| 29 | 20 | Detroit Lions | 0-3 | -35.66 (31st) | 356.37 (8th) | 62.35 |
| 30 | 29 | New Orleans Saints | 0-3 | -15.18 (30th) | 159.25 (24th) | 28.43 |
| 31 | 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-2 | 33.67 (27th) | -17.17 (30th) | 20.96 |
| 32 | 32 | Chicago Bears | 0-3 | -85.23 (32nd) | 116.04 (26th) | -34.91 |
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BONUS: INTRODUCING THE QUALITY WIN PERCENTAGE AND RELATIVE POINTS AVERAGE
With it now Week 3 in the TABRankings, we added quality win percentage and relative points average to the equation. This gives us our first taste of opponent adjustments on the season…. First, as we look at quality win percentage, we see only three teams play all three of their games against quality opponents (the 1-2 Eagles, the 1-2 49ers , the 0-3 Ravens)…. Meanwhile, there were 10 teams who played no quality opponents thus far, including four the seven undefeated teams (Broncos, Cardinals, Packers, Panthers)…. By account, there are only two wins in which a non-quality team beat a quality team (the 1-2 49ers over the 2-1 Vikings in Week 1; the 1-2 Eagles over the 2-1 Jets in Week 3)…. Second, we look at relative points average, which sees the Patriots lead all teams with 26.83-point average… New England leads in offensive relativity at 24.33 points per game, while the Vikings offense rank dead last with negative-13.17 relative points per game…. The Broncos and Steelers co-lead defensively with 9.67 relative points per game, which is necessary because both teams own negative totals in offensive relativity…. On the flip side, the Lions defense rank last with negative-8.17 relative points per game… Remember, we’ve seen three games between the aforementioned leaders and losers in unit-based relative scoring. We’ve seen one such game in each week (top-offense Patriots over to-defense Steelers in Week 1; bottom-offense Vikings over bottom-defense Lions in Week 2; top-defense Broncos over bottom-defense Lions in Week 3)….