It feels when you can be wrong, yet still be correct at the same time. Through three weeks, that’s exactly how we feel about our outlook on the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. When we published our 2015 NFL Season Predictions, we went with the ol’ stubborn version of the NFC South standings. We once again predicted the New Orleans Saints to win the division, citing the Peyton-Brees connection as a reason why. That much seems to already be over, as the Saints started 0-3 thanks in large part to a shoulder injury suffered by Brees. Meanwhile, the Falcons and Panthers are 3-0, making New Orleans a September afterthought.
However, there was something else we said about the Falcons and Panthers, and that very much may be coming true. In our predictions post, we indicated which teams we thought were prospective contenders to make Super Bowl 50. We mentioned four legitimate prospective contenders, two fringe prospective contenders and three long-shot prospective contenders. Perhaps to the surprise of many, we declared the Falcons and Panthers as two of the long-shot contenders for Super Bowl 50.
Through three weeks, it seems like both teams could fully recognize their potential. Let’s examine what these two NFC South teams are doing to defy our expectations in the predicted standings while living up to their potential as contenders.
Devonta Freeman (24) ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta’s 39-28 win over the Dallas Cowboys. (photo rights to Atlanta Falcons)
FALCONS TAKEDOWN THE NFC EAST WITH A TRIO OF FOURTH-QUARTER COMEBACKS
Our doubts about the 2015 Falcons had much to do with two factors: (1) their horrific defense in 2014 and (2) their 1-9 non-divisional record in 2014. For the former, we mentioned how Atlanta defied our regression expectations last year. They became one of three teams to break regression projections as an outlier in Yards Allowed per Play. For the latter, we knew the team would do better than 1-9 against non-divisional opponents in 2015, but we also knew that the 6-10 record was somewhat overstating reality.
With all that considered, we still considered the Falcons as a prospective contender. Matt Ryan is one of the few stabilizing forces under center, although many doubt his ability as a championship-level quarterback. Some analytical studies would have you believe he’s one of the underappreciated players in the game. Other analytical studies would have you believe he’s actually overrated. We see him as a consistently good but no great quarterback who at least makes the passing offense a consistent asset. Meanwhile, Dan Quinn comes from Seattle to become head coach, and we figured the team could become a contender if the defense improves as much as it regresses.
In the end, we had this to say about the Falcons:
Yes, this team is actually a prospective contender. Matt Ryan exercised his playoff demons back in 2012, and he honestly has enough command of the offense to make the team a tough out in any given week. Ultimately, Atlanta could become a contender just like that if there’s something to Dan Quinn’s presence as head coach. He comes from Seattle, where the Seahawks know a thing or two about great defense. The problem we see is this: the unit’s been irregressibly awful in last year. We guarantee regression in 2015, but it will take time with the first three games being against dynamic NFC East offenses. The Falcons should start slow. If they somehow don’t, look out. Prediction: 8-8
Truth be told, we pegged Atlanta to start 0-3. With Chip Kelly’s offense, we figured the Eagles would roll past Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons proved that wrong, shutting down the Eagles for a half and then overcoming an Eagles comeback by returning the favor late in a 26-24 victory. With the Eli Manning at home trying to avoid an 0-2 start, we figured the Giants would handle Atlanta in victorious fashion. Again, we were wrong, as another fourth-quarter red zone gaffe by New York helped to lead to a 10-point fourth quarter comeback and a 24-20 Falcons victory. With the Cowboys, we thought Tony Romo was playing, so there’s that. For what it’s worth, after the Cowboys dominated offensively in the first half yesterday, Atlanta shut them out in the second half en route to a come-from-behind 39-28 victory. As we put these outcomes into the context of our quoted statement, we must say “look out.”
So are the Falcons now more than a long-shot contender at this point? We say “not yet.” Defensively speaking, the team is having a world of trouble stopping opposing running backs. Not only are they averaging 4.55 yards per rush attempt (264 yards on 58 attempts), but they caught 36 passes for 317 yards. Seven of the nine touchdowns allowed by the Atlanta defense were scored by running back. Credit the defense of getting through those three NFC East opponents, but the unit needs to continue to get better. Meanwhile, there is something of note to be said about the 2015 Falcons becoming the first team to start 3-0 with three fourth-quarter comebacks.
Check out this Pro Football Reference tweet:
Atlanta’s combined margin thru Q3 for its first 3 games is tied for the lowest of any 3-0 team http://t.co/wRr3ch2wsY pic.twitter.com/EURCoLpboX
— ProFootballReference (@pfref) September 29, 2015
We’ll have you know that the other seven teams on that list went a combined 44-40-1 in their respective remaining regular season games. If the Falcons are an “average” case moving forward, they will finish 9-7 or 10-6 on the season. Odds are that they beat out our predicted record, but there’s still a good chance they fall within our predicted win range. Remember, we had the Falcons projected to win six to 10 games this season, so this nice start merely means that Atlanta likely reaches our upper bound.
Josh Norman intercepts a pass late in the fourth quarter to help seal a 27-22 over the New Orleans Saints. (photo rights to David Grunfeld / The Times-Picayune)
PANTHERS HANDLE INFERIOR OPPONENTS DURING FAST START
We’ll be the first admit that regression didn’t tell as obvious of a story with the Carolina Panthers. Looking at their 2014 season, we could tell you that the 1-8-1 stretch sandwiched by six wins gave us some unreliable sample sizes. This team wasn’t quite the group that started 2-0 and finished 4-0, but it also wasn’t the group that put together one of the worst 10-game stretches of the season. We thought they were frankly average, save for one distinction. They were, in our eyes, a long-shot prospective Super Bowl contender.
Let’s just quote in explanation from the 2015 NFL Season Predictions:
We promise we’re not jumping the shark with these “prospective contender” labels. Let’s explain what we see with Carolina. First, Cam Newton won a playoff game last year, so we can get rid of his precedent-based warning flag in the playoffs. Second, Newton’s an outlier who has size and uncanny big-man mobility that normally makes the running game an asset. Third, the Carolina defense quietly enjoyed some elasticity-based regression late in the 2014 season after falling apart during a 1-8-1 stretch. The emergence of Josh Norman and Bené Benwikere in the secondary makes the defense more than a pass-rush-reliant unit. We don’t think they’re making the playoffs, but the Panthers could be a dark horse. Prediction: 8-8
If you recall the 2013 Panthers, they went 12-4 but lost in the Divisional Round at home to the 49ers. They fielded a dominant defense carry the team to an NFC South crown. That dominant defense is no longer present in Carolina, but along the way, Newton earned his first playoff win and his proven his year-to-year consistency. In each of his past three full season, Newton has thrown either 12 or 13 interceptions despite passing no fewer than 448 times and no more than 485 times. He also routinely rushes for more than five yards per attempt but no more than six yards per attempt. He is by all means an average level passer with a unique ability to run.
While the defense might no longer be dominant, it can once again be an asset. Perhaps that’s why the team is finishing up a trade for Jared Allen. Carolina will likely suck up Allen’s contract and only have to give up a sixth-rounder for it, so this is a low-risk, high-reward move. Allen was quickly going to waste in Chicago’s new 3-4 defense, so the trade becomes a win-win. If he plays to recent form, Allen is a solid veteran addition to adds depth to a unit that is pretty good but stands out in no particular way. If he finds a resurgence playing for a team that is a prospective contender, he could save the team’s pass-rushing concerns and make the defense a standout unit.
So are the Panthers now more than a long-shot contender at this point? We again say “not yet.” This answer all lies within who the Panthers beat. Yes, we whiffed on the Jaguars upsetting Carolina in Week 1, but it should be no surprise who emerged victorious. Meanwhile, the Week 2 home win against Houston was expected, as the Texans were bound to regress from their 2014 record. Finally, the win yesterday became apparent once Drew Brees was confirmed to be out. Carolina’s three opponents thus far own a combined 2-7 record. If the Panthers can defeat quality opponents, and the defense look really good doing it, then we’ll take a deeper look at this team.
Looking at the projected six-to-10 win range, odds are Carolina fits somewhere in that upper half. Eight to 10 wins now seem like the more likely route. Our 8-8 prediction looks tenuous, but we’ll wait until Week 6 to see what’s up. That will be the first true test for the Panthers, who return from the bye to face the Seahawks in Seattle. Let’s see what the “dark horse” does then.