With the NFL postseason set to begin, we will delve into the strengths and weaknesses of the 12 playoff teams as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. To recap, we used these factors to correctly predict 10 of the 11 games last postseason. Considering team balance, coaching quality, the TABRankings and playoff team precedence, we can determine who should win postseason games.
Therefore, over a four-day span, we will look into detail at one of the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll conclude this analysis today with the final factor, which is “playoff team precedence.”
Last February, we explained “playoff team precedence” as so:
We’re looking for precedent-based qualities of a champion. Perhaps there’s a well-balanced and well-coached team that doesn’t fit the profile of other champions in previously unmentioned areas like quarterbacking experience or late-season play. We want to consider those qualities as well, because there might be some red flags in took down previous Super Bowl contenders. We’ll discuss this factor in a “Super Bowl Super Study” later in the month.
Well, we followed up that Super Bowl Super Study, looking at 13 precedent-based factors to determine which Super Bowl teams fit the bill of a “normal” contender. We can now use those results to our four factors.
So let’s focus on the 12 playoff teams and see where each team stands in the 13 respective areas. Also, we will compare the current playoff teams to past Super Bowl teams, based on point totals.
Table 1: Playoff Team Precedence
| Seed | Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC #1 | Seattle Seahawks | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0 |
| AFC #1 | New England Patriots | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | 1 |
| AFC #2 | Denver Broncos | A | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| NFC #2 | Green Bay Packers | A | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| NFC #3 | Dallas Cowboys | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| AFC #4 | Indianapolis Colts | – | – | R | – | – | – | – | – | A | A | – | – | – | 5 |
| AFC #6 | Baltimore Ravens | A | R | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | 5 |
| AFC #3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | – | – | – | – | – | – | R | – | A | – | A | A | A | 7 |
| NFC #6 | Detroit Lions | A | – | – | – | – | – | A | R | – | – | A | A | – | 7 |
| AFC #5 | Cincinnati Bengals | – | R | – | – | – | R | – | – | R | – | R | – | A | 13 |
| NFC #5 | Arizona Cardinals | A | R | R | – | – | – | – | – | A | – | R | R | R | 17 |
| NFC #4 | Carolina Panthers | R | – | R | R | – | – | R | – | R | – | R | R | R | 24 |
1: Home-Away Split, 2: Divisional Success, 3: Season Starts and Finishes, 4: Maximum Losing Streaks, 5: Single-Season Improvements, 6: Starting Quarterback Experience, 7: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents, 8: Success v. Playoff Teams, 9: Blowout Losses, 10: Turnover Margin per Game, 11: Point Differential per Game, 12: Passer Rating Differential, 13: Yards per Play Differential
As you can see, we have a wide variety of situations, so let’s go team by team to break down the odds. We will show each area of weakness, as well as the percentile rank based on the standard score from the Super Bowl Super Study data set. Note that in normal distribution, 16th and 84th percentile ranks sit about one standard deviation away from the mean total. We would estimate that any team with a point total that rests below the 16th percentile is a true long shot to reach the Super Bowl.
It ends up that teams with seven points rank in the 16th percentile. Also, the mean of the data set rests between two and three points. Therefore, when putting these mathematical notes into context, we would say the following:
- The true Super Bowl contenders will total three points or fewer. It’s possible for a contender to have one major flaw that leads to a red flag. A red flag alone might make a team slightly below average among these Super Bowl teams, but it still fits well within normality. We can trust these teams as much as the rest of the contenders.
- The fringe Super Bowl contenders will total between four and seven points. These teams would need a break or two to get to the big game. Generally speaking, there will be at least one or two better contenders.
- The unlikely Super Bowl contenders will total eight points or more. We can accept this in large part because only six teams reached the Super Bowl with eight or more points in this study. Five of them happened since 2003, but we already talked about the possibility of this recent stretch being an outlier in other studies.
With that in mind, here’s our assessment on each of the 12 NFL playoff teams:
Seattle Seahawks: zero points (73rd percentile)
The Seahawks are clean and ready to contend for a repeat championship.
New England Patriots: one point (65th percentile)
Amber: Net Yards per Point (5.5 yards per play on offense, 5.3 yards per play on defense)
Denver Broncos: one point (65th percentile)
Amber: Home-Away Split (8-0 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Green Bay Packers: two points (56th percentile)
Amber: Home-Away Split (8-0 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Blowout Losses (L 36-16 at Seattle, L 44-23 at New Orleans)
Dallas Cowboys: three points (47th percentile)
Red: Home-Away Split (4-4 at home, 8-0 on the road)
Indianapolis Colts: five points (30th percentile)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (0-2 to start the season)
Amber: Blowout Losses (L 42-20 v. New England, L 42-7 at Indianapolis)
Amber: Turnover Margin per Game (negative-5 margin, negative-0.31 average)
Baltimore Ravens: five points (30th percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. AFC North)
Amber: Home-Away Split (6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (91.0 rating on offense, 90.6 rating on defense)
Pittsburgh Steelers: seven points (16th percentile)
Red: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents (5-4 record, four one-possession wins)
Amber: Blowout Losses (L 26-6 at Baltimore, L 31-10 at Cleveland)
Amber: Point Differential per Game (plus-68 differential, plus-4.2 per game)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (103.2 rating on offense, 98.3 rating on defense)
Amber: Net Yards per Point (6.2 yards per play on offense, 6.0 yards per play on defense)
Detroit Lions: seven points (16th percentile)
Red: Success v. Playoff Teams (1-4 record)
Amber: Home-Away Split (7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents (9-1 record, five one-possession wins)
Amber: Point Differential per Game (plus-39 differential, plus-2.4 per game)
Amber: Passer Rating Differential (85.9 rating on offense, 83.0 rating on defense)
Cincinnati Bengals: 13 points (1st percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. AFC North)
Red: Starting Quarterback Experience (0-3 playoff record for Andy Dalton)
Red: Blowout Losses (L 43-17 at New England, L 27-0 at Indianapolis, L 24-3 v. Cleveland, L 42-21 v. Pittsburgh)
Red: Point Differential per Game (plus-21 differential, plus-1.3 per game)
Amber: Net Yards per Point (5.5 yards per play on offense, 5.4 yards per play on defense)
Arizona Cardinals: 17 points (1st percentile)
Red: Divisional Success (3-3 v. NFC West)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (0-2 to finish the season)
Red: Point Differential per Game (81.8 rating on offense, 86.0 rating on defense)
Red: Passer Rating Differential (0-3 playoff record for Andy Dalton)
Red: Net Yards per Point (5.2 yards per play on offense, 5.8 yards per play on defense)
Amber: Home-Away Split (7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road)
Amber: Blowout Losses (L 41-20 at Denver, L 35-6 v. Seattle)
Carolina Panthers: 24 points (1st percentile)
Red: Home-Away Split (4-4 at home, 3-4-1 on the road)
Red: Season Starts and Finishes (3-8-1 to start the season)
Red: Maximum Losing Streaks (lost six games in a row from Week 7 to Week 13)
Red: Success v. Non-Quality Opponents (6-3 record, four one-possession wins)
Red: Blowout Losses (L 38-10 at Baltimore, L 38-17 at Green Bay, L 45-21 at Philadelphia)
Red: Point Differential per Game (negative-35 differential, negative-2.2 per game)
Red: Passer Rating Differential (86.2 rating on offense, 89.5 rating on defense)
Red: Net Yards per Point (5.2 yards per play on offense, 5.4 yards per play on defense)