With the NFL postseason set to begin, we will delve into the strengths and weaknesses of the 12 playoff teams as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. To recap, we used these factors to correctly predict 10 of the 11 games last postseason. Considering team balance, coaching quality, the TABRankings and playoff team precedence, we can determine who should win postseason games.
Therefore, over a four-day span, we will look into detail at one of the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll continue this analysis today with the third factor, which the TABRankings.
Last February, we explained why and how we use the TABRankings as a factor:
We use these rankings merely a loose guideline to determine each team’s overall quality of play. Don’t look to split hairs here. Only give the advantage to a team that owns a notable advantage in the points total.
Therefore, we will finish our business with the regular season TABRankings for the 2014 season. Remember, the formula for the 2014 TABRankings in the regular season looks like so:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, and this will create the True TABR for the regular season. Check out the opponent adjustment formula below:
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be (4/3).
With now all that put together, the results for the regular season are available below. Note that we compare to these rankings to last year, instead of last week. Last year’s rankings are indicated in the “LY” column. Also note that the 12 playoff teams are indicated in blue, so you can see how far these teams are separated in the rankings.
The TABRankings top eight:
1
, 2
, 3
, 4
5
, 6
, 7
, 8
True TABRankings — Regular Season
| Rank | LY | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 476.78 (1st) | -10.37 (22nd) | 466.41 |
| 2 | 6 | New England Patriots | 12-4 | 450.86 (2nd) | 7.32 (14th) | 458.18 |
| 3 | 2 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 | 449.32 (3rd) | 6.43 (15th) | 455.75 |
| 4 | 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 | 422.01 (4th) | 21.21 (5th) | 443.22 |
| 5 | 8 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 | 357.86 (6th) | -11.12 (25th) | 346.74 |
| 6 | 20 | Buffalo Bills | 9-7 | 323.45 (10th) | 19.17 (6th) | 342.62 |
| 7 | 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 11-5 | 307.73 (12th) | 26.09 (4th) | 334.82 |
| 8 | 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 383.48 (5th) | -54.41 (31st) | 329.07 |
| 9 | 21 | Detroit Lions | 11-5 | 323.40 (11th) | -10.37 (22nd) | 313.03 |
| 10 | 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10-5-1 | 288.64 (13th) | 18.23 (9th) | 301.87 |
| 11 | 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 329.53 (9th) | -27.67 (29th) | 301.86 |
| 12 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 | 340.71 (8th) | -41.03 (30th) | 299.68 |
| 13 | 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10-6 | 286.20 (14th) | 0.44 (19th) | 286.64 |
| 14 | 32 | Houston Texans | 9-7 | 341.84 (7th) | -58.68 (32nd) | 283.16 |
| 15 | 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-7 | 271.39 (15th) | 7.56 (13th) | 278.95 |
| 16 | 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 8-8 | 244.08 (16th) | 12.23 (12th) | 256.31 |
| 17 | 18 | Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 224.82 (17th) | 17.05 (10th) | 241.87 |
| 18 | 9 | San Diego Chargers | 9-7 | 206.43 (19th) | 18.97 (7th) | 225.40 |
| 19 | 4 | Carolina Panthers | 7-8-1 | 221.34 (18th) | -3.35 (21st) | 217.99 |
| 20 | 24 | New York Giants | 6-10 | 199.17 (21st) | 0.79 (18th) | 199.96 |
| 21 | 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | 204.74 (20th) | -17.36 (27th) | 187.38 |
| 22 | 29 | Cleveland Browns | 7-9 | 192.10 (22nd) | -15.92 (26th) | 176.18 |
| 23 | 13 | St. Louis Rams | 6-10 | 155.16 (24th) | 18.65 (8th) | 173.81 |
| 24 | 5 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 160.93 (23rd) | 0.00 (20th) | 160.93 |
| 25 | 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | 148.95 (25th) | -11.00 (24th) | 137.95 |
| 26 | 17 | Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 73.51 (26th) | 33.76 (3rd) | 107.27 |
| 27 | 25 | New York Jets | 4-12 | 21.94 (27th) | 50.28 (2nd) | 72.22 |
| 28 | 28 | Oakland Raiders | 3-13 | -26.14 (31st) | 76.29 (1st) | 50.15 |
| 29 | 30 | Washington Redskins | 4-12 | -4.58 (28th) | 1.86 (17th) | -2.72 |
| 30 | 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | -18.34 (30th) | 12.51 (11th) | -5.83 |
| 31 | 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-14 | -15.30 (29th) | -10.37 (22nd) | -25.67 |
| 32 | 16 | Tennessee Titans | 2-14 | -36.54 (32nd) | 4.05 (16th) | -32.49 |
The season ends with the four teams that earned a bye finishing in the top four spots. We felt like these were the four true Super Bowl contenders for quite a while, and they certainly finish well beyond the pack. Take this piece of evidence: the fifth-ranked Indianapolis Colts are closer to the 16th-ranked San Francisco 49ers in True TABR than the fourth-ranked Seattle Seahawks. It’s clear that the Wild Card Weekend winner will at least two distinct advantages between balance, coaching and precedence to pull of an upset.
Because of this dominance, we see a clear second tier of playoff teams that follow. The Colts, Cardinals, Cowboys, Lions, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all can be seen as playoff-worthy teams that will likely fall short of winning a championship. If any team emerges from this pack, it will be because they got a break or two in the postseason.
That just leaves the Panthers, who made the playoffs at 7-8-1. While we don’t believe they should be allowed into the playoffs because of their losing record, the TABRankings tell us their presence isn’t that much of a letdown. In 2012, the Indianapolis Colts were ranked 20th in regular season TABR and earned the AFC’s fifth seed. In 2013, the Green Bay Packers were ranked 20th in regular season TABR and won the NFC North at 8-7-1. Somehow, this Panthers team actually ranks one spot better. So Carolina playing is no travesty.
What’s actually of greater note is that the sixth-ranked Buffalo Bills didn’t make the playoffs. They were upset at Oakland in Week 16, but even a win there doesn’t get them into the playoffs. The TABRankings believe them to be one of the biggest regular season casualty over the past three years. The 2012 Bears (8th), 2012 Giants (9th) and 2013 Cardinals (10th) were the previous top 12 teams to miss the playoffs. Buffalo becomes the first to crack the regular season’s top six. We’ll see where they stand after the Super Bowl.