After spending the week to preview the Four Postseason Factors and to use that information to analyze the 12 NFL playoff teams, we’ve finally reached the time to start giving our predictions. We will finally piece everything together from the Four Postseason Factors Preview and put it into the context of each individual playoff match-up. Today, we focus on the first two games of the Wild Card Weekend. The match-ups feature a battle between what many believe to be the two worst playoff teams and a battle between two divisional rivals.
Remember, our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value (26.29) per week.
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 525 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we have just one more reminder of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
Now, let’s get to the games!
(7) Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at (19) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Six weeks ago, this game probably would’ve set up as a major mismatch in the eyes of many. However, with the Cardinals finishing the 2-4 and the Panthers winning their last four to take the NFC South. Add in the fact that Arizona must settle for third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley to make the start this afternoon, and most seem now to think that Carolina will emerge victorious despite its losing record in the regular season. Of course, this major storyline only impacts the “team balance” facet of this postseason analysis.
Cardinals team balance: 18.6 pass O, 27.7 rush O, 16.2 pass D, 15.9 rush D, 15.0 scoring, 14.0 battle-tested
Panthers team balance: 12.6 pass D, 24.8 run D, 19.6 pass O, 15.0 rush O, 25.0 scoring, 20.7 battle-tested
Looking at the season-long numbers, the Panthers have a slight advantage when the units go head-to-head. However, the Cardinals are the smarter and tougher team, as they own a considerable advantage in scoring efficiency and battle-tested quality play. The latter part changes with Lindley under center. His inability to produce efficiency not only stifles offensive productivity, but it puts more pressure on the defense. Arizona allowed 991 yards on defense in Lindley’s two starts. Thus, we give the advantage to Carolina for team balance.
Coaching quality: Cardinals 4.88 average rank, Panthers 10.00 average rank
Bruce Arians became a shining star in this business with his recent success in Indianapolis and Arizona. His defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles, is a rising star as well. What those two in particular achieved to get this oft-injured team in place to succeed is quite remarkable. Ron Rivera and his staff aren’t failing at their jobs, but they aren’t succeeding like Arians and crew. Rivera’s staff only has an leg up in playoff experience, and it’s not by much. Thus, we give the advantage to Arizona for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Cardinals 334.82 points, Panthers 217.99 points
Arizona’s 116.83-point advantage over Carolina is quite significant. In fact, the Panthers are closer to ranking 26th than seventh. Sure, the Cardinals grabbed this hefty when they had Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton under center, but that doesn’t matter for the purpose of this factor. This factor has the most decisive advantage. We give the advantage to Arizona for the TABRankings.
Cardinals playoff team precedence: five red flags, two amber flags (17 points, 1st percentile)
Panthers playoff team precedence: eight red flags (24 points, 1st percentile)
These two teams are definitely the two weakest contenders, according to this factor. Carolina has more issues of precedence, but the difference isn’t very important when both teams are in the 1st percentile rank of the standard score in our Super Bowl Super Study. Both teams broke a threshold that makes splitting any hairs unnecessary. No advantage will be given for playoff team precedence.
According to the Four Postseason Factors, Arizona will ride to victory based on strong coaching and superior efficiency. Addressing the latter factor, Arizona’s superior turnover margin and Carolina’s lack of quality play over the four-game winning streak come into play tonight. Carolina might be the more balanced team tonight, but the team isn’t exactly well-equipped to pounce on Arizona’s frail quarterback situation. The Cardinals are also hard-nosed and well-coached enough to scrape hard and keep this game close. If we were trust our gut alone, Carolina would be choice, simply because we can’t believe Lindley would get a playoff win. But we have a system, and it believe the Cardinals can edge out a one possession victory. Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 14, Carolina Panthers 12
(11) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at (12) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
While the first game doesn’t really give off a playoff-level vibe, this game promises to be an intriguing and intense battle. Yes, each team won at home by 20 points this season, but the previous seasons between the Jon Harbaugh-led Ravens and Mike Tomlin-led Steelers regularly ended with a pair of one-possession outcomes. If we can get another classic battle between these two teams that goes down to the final possession, we will be in store for a special treat. However, we will simply settle for a quality match-up between the AFC North rivals. Like in recent seasons, the teams have similar strengths and similar weaknesses. However, these teams are no longer about the smash-mouth efficient defense. Not for one team, at least.
Ravens team balance: 8.6 pass O, 7.2 run O, 13.2 pass D, 5.0 rush D, 7.0 scoring, 13.4 battle-tested
Steelers team balance: 26.6 pass D, 20.5 run D, 4.4 pass O, 13.0 run O, 12.5 scoring, 8.7 battle-tested
Most of the media is focusing on Le’Veon Bell not being able to play this game due to the injury. That certainly will have a major impact, but we believe that the Ravens already had this situation handled. Bell didn’t dominant on the ground as much as he did as a backfield receiver, so the strong Ravens run defense already had an advantage. However, the biggest part that stands out here involves the pass defenses. Most are focusing on problems in the Baltimore secondary, but that team can counteract those issues with a strong pass rush. Therefore, the numbers balance out well. On the other sideline, the Steelers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. This seems to be glossed over, forgotten in a wide-eyed adulation of a franchise known for its historically great pass defenses. The balanced Ravens offense will be able to dominate the Steelers defense, which gives the advantage to Baltimore for team balance.
Coaching quality: Steelers 5.00 average rank, Ravens 5.25 average rank
We’re not going to split hairs here. Both head coaches enjoy remarkable postseason success. Mike Tomlin won two AFC Championships since beginning as Steelers head coach in 2007. Jon Harbaugh won at least one playoff game in each of his first five seasons as head coach. He began in 2008. Tomlin owns both playoff victories in the postseason since that time, but the first came when Joe Flacco was a rookie and the second came only after overcoming a 14-point deficit. No advantage will be given for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Ravens 301.86 points, Steelers 299.68 points
Once again, we see what is more or less a dead heat between these two AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh actually owns a better Raw TABR, but dropped to one spot below Baltimore after receiving the opponent adjustment. It’s not even like the Steelers faced significantly weaker opponents. Baltimore faced the fourth-weakest schedule, while Pittsburgh faced the third-weakest schedule. It would take a heated and long-winded argument to try to prove a winner. No advantage will be given for the TABRankings.
Ravens playoff team precedence: one red flag, two amber flags (five points, 30th percentile)
Steelers playoff team precedence: one red flag, four amber flags (seven points, 16th percentile)
Both teams are considering fringe Super Bowl contenders, according to this study. The Steelers ended up receiving more amber flags because they failed to meet requirements in three differential statistics. That can be pinned on the defensive issues that gave Pittsburgh the disadvantage in team balance. However, it’s not like Baltimore is significantly better in this factor. The Ravens did have applicable issues, including a 4-4 road record and a mere +0.4 Passer Rating Differential. No advantage will be given for playoff team precedence.
According to the Four Postseason Factors, we have a 50-50 match-up in three areas. Honestly, that’s what we should expect from a divisional match-up. However, at the end of the day, the Ravens are much better equipped to handle a game that has serious potential for an offensively-dominated slugfest. Baltimore’s pass rush and Pittsburgh’s lack thereof will make the game-changing difference. Bell’s absence will guarantee Baltimore’s victory in running game on both sides, which will slow down the home team enough to prevent this from being a one-possession game. Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 21