NFL 2014 TABRankings: Week 1

In Week 1 of every season, there are a few games that see elite teams stumble and horrible teams shine. Sometimes, it a rare exception to the rule, and order will be restored in final 15 games. Other times, it’s a sign of the times changing. We can’t tell what the case will be like for these teams, so we can’t take this week’s outcomes as its full weight until we see more games added to the sample size.

Looking at last year’s rankings as it relates to Week 1, the top four teams all won their respective season openers. However, the next five teams on the list all lost. Add in a Packers loss to the Seahawks, and the 2013 playoff teams finished just 6-6 this week. The Week 1 story remains the same. Either things can change so much from one year to another, or the season opener provides nothing but smoke and mirrors for expected change. We just don’t know what the case will be, but it makes us so pumped for what’s to come in Week 2.

From 2013 to 2014, the TABRankings formula gets the smallest of tweaks. In the season preview, the Expected Win Differential was introduced. This used a formula that attributed four points fo each giveaway or takeaway. It seems correct to be consistent, so the statistical weight of turnover margin gets adjusted from 3 to 4. As a result, the formula for the 2014 TABRankings looks like so:

The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

NOTE: The quality win percentage and relative points average will both be excluded in Weeks 1 and 2.

Of course, as already alluded, one game should not mean everything. The results are strictly not reliable enough just yet. Therefore, these rankings will feature some TABR from 2013 and some TABR from 2014. The 2014 totals from the above formula will be called the Raw TABR. Add in the 2013 TABR, and this will create the True TABR for Week 1. This way, there will be some balance for the seemingly good teams that lost to a seemingly tough opponent. Note that the 2013 TABR will have a decreasing influence over the first three weeks. By Week 4, last year’s numbers will play no role in the TABRankings. We’ll know who’s for real and who’s in deep trouble by then.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for Week 1:
(Raw TABR * 0.25) + (2013 TABR * 0.75) = True TABR

With now all that put together, the results for Week 1 are available below. Make sure to check back in the each week for the newest installment of the TABRankings. We will be publishing these results weekly to see how each team progresses!

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Week 1