It may still be early in the season, but Week 2 has long been known for trying to avoid the doom-and-gloom nature of the 0-2 start and the hopeful blessings of the 2-0 start. This week provides the classics overreactions, but we’re not falling for that. Even though our four losses last week all involved teams we predicted to make the playoffs, we’re not afraid. Heck, we’re not even worried that the 12 teams we predicted to make the playoffs this season went a combined 4-8 in Week 1. Figure that only eight to 10 of those teams make the playoffs. That can still qualify as an accurate playoff forecast. Just assume that the teams we incorrectly predict to make the playoffs will have some of those losses. Therefore, expecting the 12 playoff teams to have a 6-6 to 8-4 record in Week 1 seems like a fair proposition.
Heck, we’re so unphased by last week’s outcomes that we’re using our preseason predictions again for the Week 2 Pick’em. This includes another handful of upsets. And — brace yourselves — it also includes our first ever prediction of a Seahawks loss. No kidding.
Now to the predictions for Week 2. Remember, by using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” and quality of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
This week’s predictions will again focus much on how the 2014 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Only major changes can cause an amendment to the preseason predictions. The only amendment here involves the Rams-Buccaneers game, as the visitors are down to their third string quarterback. I won’t get into the serious match-up breakdowns until about Week 5, pending on how the season predictions fare.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(14) Detroit Lions (1-0) at (4) Carolina Panthers (1-0)
Though we expect the Panthers to take a step back in 2014, we predicted a 2-0 start for them. The match-ups were favorable, with a Tampa Bay offense line that lack chemistry and with a Detroit quarterback that struggles against quality opponents. Though Cam Newton has his own struggles, and is also fighting through injury, he’s earned more trust than Matt Stafford.
(1) Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at (10) San Diego Chargers (0-1)
Since the relaunch of TABMathletics, there’s been nothing but full endorsement of the Seattle Seahawks. Predicting a Super Bowl XLVIII victory. Predicting a victory in all 19 games played during the weekly Pick’em. Predicting a Super Bowl XLIX victory. However, this all changes for one week. The Chargers became very adept at running short underneath routes. One would think the Seahawks match well to this, but the Chargers will find ways to learn from what the Broncos couldn’t do in the Super Bowl. Plus, this a road game for the Seahawks and the home opener for a San Diego team desperately hoping to avoid 0-2. We have a San Diego win — then and now.
(12) Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at (3) Denver Broncos (1-0)
We don’t believe a quarterback like Alex Smith, with all of his three career victories when his opponents score 24+ points, will beat a quarterback like Peyton Manning. Not last year. Not this year.
(6) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at (11) Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Believe it or not, the preseason predictions had the Colts starting 0-2 and the Texans starting 2-0. Indianapolis is the one team expected to overcome the 0-2 start. This is part of going with a gut feeling in a match-up that features two questionable defenses. The Eagles have a more composed offense, simply because the Colts have struggled to protect Andrew Luck. If this game is going to be close, the regression in one-possession games come into play once again. Indianapolis can still overcome the 0-2 start.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(16) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at (26) Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
We again correctly predicted the winner for Thursday Night Football.
(15) Miami Dolphins (1-0) at (17) Buffalo Bills (1-0)
We expect the season split between these two teams. Furthermore, we respect the home-field advantage in Buffalo, especially in the home opener. Last year’s home openers saw an upset win over Carolina.
The Rest (1 point each)
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at (32) Washington Redskins (0-1)
With expectations that Washington will improve this season, taking the home opener against a weak opponent seems like a good proposition. The home play in D.C. was respectable in recent years, even through severe struggles.
(24) Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at (13) Tennessee Titans (1-0)
We already have circled the lone loss against the AFC South for the Cowboys. It’ll be Week 16 at home against Indianapolis, with a fourth-quarter comeback by Andrew Luck. At least this makes the Week 2 prospects look relatively better.
(9) Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at (28) New York Giants (0-1)
We’re suckers for this type of match. The Cardinals are coming off a short week with a cross-country trip. Update, 9/14: In addition, Carson Palmer will not get the start at quarterback due to a shoulder injury. We’re all in on the upset.
(8) New England Patriots (0-1) at (19) Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
Okay, so Matt Cassel performed admirably in his year under center in New England when Tom Brady was injured. It doesn’t mean we’re taking him head-to-head over Brady… ever. The 0-2 start just won’t happen.
(5) New Orleans Saints (0-1) at (31) Cleveland Browns (0-1)
If the Saints were home, this would be the lock of the week. However, since it’s on the road, we put this on upset alert. We think the motivation avoid an 0-2 start is enough to push the Saints just by the Browns.
(23) Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at (7) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)
Both teams should fare better than their respective nightmares in 2013. We expect the Texans to fare much better, while the Redskins to fare only moderately better. Houston will start the season with a win.
(18) St. Louis Rams (0-1) at (27) Tampa Bay Buccaners (0-1) **Amendment**
Originally, the thought process was that the Rams would have the pass rush to get to the yet-to-be cohesive Tampa Bay offensive line. However, with the Rams down to Austin Davis under center. It gives the Buccaneers boost. Add in the fact that Chris Long is out for the Rams, and their match-up advantage isn’t as strong. Therefore, it’s time to switch the pick.
(25) Houston Texans (1-0) at (29) Oakland Raiders (0-1)
The Texans are looking every bit the part of a bounce back team. Meanwhile, the Raiders looked last week like a team that struggled with the cross-country trip. While Oakland is home, any advantage there will be drowned out by the unfavorable match-up between Derek Carr and the Texans front seven. We’ll stick with Houston.
(21) New York Jets (1-0) at (20) Green Bay Packers (0-1) **Lock of the Week**
These two teams are separated by 0.03 points, according to the Week 1 TABRankings. However, nearly everyone would agree these two teams aren’t as that type of equal level. The quarterback match-up has Geno Smith facing Aaron Rodgers, which pretty much puts these two teams in different worlds. It’s especially with the Packers at home fighting against an 0-2 start. Lock it up.
(22) Chicago Bears (0-1) at (2) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) **Upset of the Week**
We have this pick in part because teams tend to struggle early in their home schedule when opening a new stadium. Logic follows that the team hasn’t established “homefield advantage” yet because there are still intricacies to learn about playing in the stadium. It’s much closer to a 50-50 proposition than most realize. That leaves it to the match-up itself. The Bears are more potent offensively, and the defense will regress enough to be competitive. On the flipside, Colin Kaepernick didn’t show consistent explosiveness last year to suggest he can fully take advantage of those concerns. We liked the Bears in August, so this pick won’t change unless Brandon Marshall and/or Alshon Jeffery cannot play. Update, 9/14: Marshall and Jeffery are both good to start. We keep this decision as is.