Football is finally back for the 2014 season, and we’re again off to a great start here at TABMathletics. So far, there are only a few setbacks for the season predictions, but all of those involve playoff teams. The Patriots took the upset loss in Miami after looking awful in the pass game in the second half. The Ravens continued to look awful on offense, showing no signs of regression in a home divisional loss. The Bears lost in overtime at home despite getting first possession in the period. Finally, the Chargers let an 11-point fourth quarter led slip away after a handful of untimely mistakes. This last one was “the game that got away” for the week.
That last loss was also the most costly, as three points were on the line. With a Chargers win, I would’ve been all alone at first. Instead, I’ll have to settle for a tie in the standings with a two-point deficit. It’s manageable to get the lead next week.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(16) Tennessee Titans at (7) Kansas City Chiefs
(8) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Denver Broncos
(9) San Diego Chargers at (12) Arizona Cardinals
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(6) New England Patriots at (18) Miami Dolphins
(29) Cleveland Browns at (19) Pittsburgh Steelers
(11) Cincinnati Bengals at (23) Baltimore Ravens
(5) New Orleans Saints at (26) Atlanta Falcons **Upset of the Week**
(4) Carolina Panthers at (22) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rest (1 point each)
(15) Green Bay Packers at (1) Seattle Seahawks
(27) Minnesota Vikings at (13) St. Louis Rams
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars at (10) Philadelphia Eagles
(28) Oakland Raiders at (25) New York Jets **Lock of the Week**
(20) Buffalo Bills at (17) Chicago Bears
(30) Washington Redskins at (32) Houston Texans
(3) San Francisco 49ers at (14) Dallas Cowboys
(24) New York Giants at (21) Detroit Lions
Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 12-4 and 19 points
- Overall record and points: 12-4 and 19 points (75 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 2-1 this week (2-1 overall… 66.67 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-2 this week (3-2 overall… 60 win percentage) [includes 0-0 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 1-0 overall (21 ranking points… 100 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 1-0 overall (current streak: Jets… best streak: one week)
Now for the competition. I wanted this to be a 1 v. 25 battle, so I selected experts from several different publications. There is just one major change from last year. It seems like Cold, Hard Football Facts isn’t making predictions this year, so they are no longer part of the competition. Instead, we switch up the NFL Network experts to make it a competition class of 25 experts.
One publication that provides a litmus test is Football Outsiders, so Aaron Schatz picks are included here. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated. They provide other perspective from the top publications.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 12-4 | 1 | Jackson | 21 | |
| 1 | TABMathletics | 12-4 | 2 | TABM | 19 | |
| 3 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 11-5 | 3 | Golic | 17 | |
| 3 | Michael Robinson, NFLN | 11-5 | 3 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 17 | |
| 5 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 10-6 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 17 | |
| 5 | Don Banks, SI | 10-6 | 3 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 17 | |
| 5 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 10-6 | 3 | Robinson | 17 | |
| 5 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 10-6 | 8 | Carter | 16 | |
| 5 | Johnson | 10-6 | 8 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 16 | |
| 5 | Joyner | 10-6 | 8 | Jaworski | 16 | |
| 5 | Prisco | 10-6 | 8 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 16 | |
| M | Mean Record | 9.35-6.65 | 12 | Banks | 15 | |
| 12 | Ditka | 9-7 | 12 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 15 | |
| 12 | Football Outsiders | 9-7 | 12 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 15 | |
| 12 | Hoge | 9-7 | 12 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 15 | |
| 12 | Irvin | 9-7 | 12 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 15 | |
| 12 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 9-7 | M | Mean Points | 14.92 | |
| 12 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 9-7 | 17 | Allen | 14 | |
| 12 | Sapp | 9-7 | 17 | Mariucci | 14 | |
| 12 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 9-7 | 17 | Schefter | 14 | |
| 12 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 9-7 | 17 | Warner | 14 | |
| 12 | Wickersham | 9-7 | 21 | FO | 13 | |
| 22 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 8-8 | 21 | O’Hara | 13 | |
| 22 | Sharpe | 8-8 | 23 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 11 | |
| 22 | Melissa Stark, NFLN | 8-8 | 23 | Mortensen | 11 | |
| 25 | Faulk | 7-9 | 23 | Stark | 11 | |
| 25 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 7-9 | 26 | Schlereth | 10 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 26 competitors).
Last year, I beat a list of 92 experts and a coin toss to win the NFL Pick’em crown, according to NFL Pickwatch. This year, I’m off to a good start, as no expert had a better record than me in Week 1. I’ll look to continue the momentum in Week 2. Remember, I went a combined 26-6 in the first two weeks last year. That means a 14-2 record is needed for this year in Week 2 to maintain the standard. Until then…