Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on the impact of passer rating differential for the Super Bowl combatants. This stat has one of the best correlations to victory in the game. The chart below examines each Super Bowl team’s passer rating differential.
Table 12: Passer Rating Differential (rounded to the nearest tenth)
| SB | Winner | PRD | SB | Loser | PRD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | +56.0 | I | 66 Chiefs | +42.6 | |
| II | 67 Packers | +22.2 | II | 67 Raiders | +31.4 | |
| III | 68 Jets | +22.4 | III | 68 Colts | +36.5 | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | +29.3 | IV | 69 Vikings | +29.3 | |
| V | 70 Colts | +13.0 | V | 70 Cowboys | +27.0 | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | +32.9 | VI | 71 Dolphins | +21.6 | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | +39.5 | VII | 72 Redskins | +26.5 | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | +35.3 | VIII | 73 Vikings | +35.5 | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | +4.6 | IX | 74 Vikings | +28.2 | |
| X | 75 Steelers | +43.9 | X | 75 Cowboys | +24.1 | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | +33.4 | XI | 76 Vikings | +34.7 | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | +37.1 | XII | 77 Broncos | +18.4 | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | +29.7 | XIII | 78 Cowboys | +29.4 | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | +20.2 | XIV | 79 Rams | -3.3 | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | +8.2 | XV | 80 Eagles | +34.4 | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | +27.5 | XVI | 81 Bengals | +14.4 | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | +24.1 | XVII | 82 Dolphins | +15.3 | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | +13.0 | XVIII | 83 Redskins | +27.4 | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | +36.3 | XIX | 84 Dolphins | +37.1 | |
| XX | 85 Bears | +26.1 | XX | 85 Patriots | +13.7 | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | +6.4 | XXI | 86 Broncos | +2.8 | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | +11.4 | XXII | 87 Broncos | +14.6 | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | +11.3 | XXIII | 88 Bengals | +27.4 | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | +46.3 | XXIV | 89 Broncos | +9.6 | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | +28.4 | XXV | 90 Bills | +25.0 | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | +39.1 | XXVI | 91 Bills | +32.4 | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | +18.9 | XXVII | 92 Bills | +4.8 | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | +21.5 | XXVIII | 93 Bills | +11.0 | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | +43.3 | XXIX | 94 Chargers | -0.7 | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | +19.4 | XXX | 95 Steelers | +0.2 | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | +40.3 | XXXI | 96 Patriots | +14.3 | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | +15.9 | XXXII | 97 Packers | +32.9 | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | +13.0 | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | +15.9 | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | +42.5 | XXXIV | 99 Titans | +0.8 | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | +10.2 | XXXV | 00 Giants | +9.4 | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | +16.7 | XXXVI | 01 Rams | +32.3 | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | +37.9 | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | +19.9 | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | +28.1 | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | +4.8 | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | +17.2 | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | +20.6 | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | +15.4 | XL | 05 Seahawks | +19.4 | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | +20.6 | XLI | 06 Bears | +7.0 | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | -10.4 | XLII | 07 Patriots | +37.9 | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | +18.5 | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | -0.8 | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | +37.4 | XLIV | 09 Colts | +14.8 | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | +31.7 | XLV | 10 Steelers | +22.1 | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | +6.8 | XLVI | 11 Patriots | +19.6 | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | +5.8 | XLVII | 12 49ers | +23.2 | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | +39.0 | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | +29.9 | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | +13.5 | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | +14.7 |
Red flag: Negative passer rating differential
Amber flag: Positive passer rating differential WORSE THAN plus-6 points
There is no era-related trend, but it’s interesting that only three Super Bowl winners get flagged. This helps to show how important of a role passer rating differential plays in the game, especially at the playoff level.
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- Eight red flags, one amber flag: 2007 Giants
- Six red flags, one amber flag: 2011 Giants
- Two red flags, one amber flag: 1988 49ers
- Two red flags: 1999 Rams, 2010 Packers
- One red flag, four amber flags: 2012 Ravens
- One red flag, two amber flags: 1979 Steelers, 2006 Colts
- One red flag, one amber flag: 1970 Colts, 1981 49ers, 2001 Patriots
- One red flag: 1972 Dolphins, 1983 Raiders, 1993 Cowboys
- Three amber flags: 1987 Redskins
- Two amber flags: 1974 Steelers, 1980 Raiders, 2000 Ravens, 2009 Saints
- One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1976 Raiders, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2005 Steelers
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- Six red flags: 2008 Cardinals
- Four red flags, four amber flags: 1979 Rams
- Two red flags, four amber flags: 2003 Panthers
- Two red flags, one amber flag: 1981 Bengals
- Two red flags: 1998 Falcons
- One red flag, one amber flag: 1988 Bengals, 1994 Chargers, 1996 Patriots, 2000 Giants
- One red flag: 1980 Eagles, 2001 Rams, 2002 Raiders, 2005 Seahawks
- Five amber flags: 1986 Broncos
- Four amber flags: 1970 Cowboys, 1992 Bills
- Three amber flags: 1985 Patriots
- Two amber flags: 1999 Titans, 2004 Eagles, 2012 49ers
- One amber flag: 1969 Vikings, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1982 Dolphins, 1984 Dolphins, 1987 Broncos, 1989 Broncos, 1995 Steelers, 2006 Bears, 2009 Colts, 2010 Steelers, 2011 Patriots
With one factor left to go, we see that the 2007 Giants will finish with the most red flags. To think, they received eight red flags and one amber flag over 12 factors. Yet, they defeated two 13-3 teams and a 16-0 team to win the Super Bowl. It’s clearly the greatest underdog run in NFL postseason history. Only the 2011 Giants can compare.
Up next: Yards per Play Differential