Super Bowl Super Study, Part 11: Point Differential per Game

Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.

Today, the study focuses on each Super Bowl team’s point differential, balancing the scoring offense and scoring defense. To be fair in regards to the change of a 14-game schedule to a 16-game schedule in the 1978 season, we will look the margin on a per-game basis. The chart below examines each Super Bowl team’s point differential per game.

Table 11: Point Differential per Game (rounded to the nearest hundredth)

Red flag: Average scoring margin WORSE THAN +2.5 per game
Amber flag: Average scoring margin of at least +2.5 per game WORSE THAN +5 per game

If there’s any trend, it came either from changing the 14-game schedule to the 16-game schedule or from the Mel Blount-inspired illegal defensive contact rules that ended the Dead Ball Era. Both changes occurred in 1978, which was at a time in which no teams received a flag for this factor. With more games and better offense, it’s arguably tougher to maintain a sterling average scoring margin.

Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:

• Seven red flags, one amber flag: 2007 Giants
• Six red flags, one amber flag: 2011 Giants
• Two red flags, one amber flag: 1988 49ers
• Two red flags: 1999 Rams, 2010 Packers
• One red flag, three amber flags: 2012 Ravens
• One red flag, two amber flags: 1979 Steelers, 2006 Colts
• One red flag, one amber flag: 1970 Colts, 1981 49ers, 2001 Patriots
• One red flag: 1972 Dolphins, 1983 Raiders, 1993 Cowboys
  
• Three amber flags: 1987 Redskins
• Two amber flags: 1980 Raiders, 2000 Ravens, 2009 Saints
• One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1974 Steelers, 1976 Raiders, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2005 Steelers

Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:

• Five red flags: 2008 Cardinals
• Three red flags, four amber flags: 1979 Rams
• Two red flags, three amber flags: 2003 Panthers
• Two red flags, one amber flag: 1981 Bengals
• Two red flags: 1998 Falcons
• One red flag, one amber flag: 1988 Bengals, 1996 Patriots, 2000 Giants
• One red flag: 1980 Eagles, 2001 Rams, 2002 Raiders, 2005 Seahawks
  
• Four amber flags: 1970 Cowboys, 1986 Broncos
• Three amber flags: 1985 Patriots, 1992 Bills
• Two amber flags: 2004 Eagles, 2012 49ers
• One amber flag: 1969 Vikings, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1982 Dolphins, 1984 Dolphins, 1987 Broncos, 1989 Broncos, 1994 Chargers, 1999 Titans, 2006 Bears, 2009 Colts, 2010 Steelers, 2011 Patriots

We shouldn’t be surprised to see four teams (1979 Rams, 2007 Giants, 2008 Cardinals and 2011 Giants) continue to stand out among the rest. However, we’re going to start monitoring the frequency of red flags, compared to yellow flags. That may determine the relative values for the respective colors of flags when we conclude this study.

Up next: Passer Rating Differential