Over two weeks, we’re conducting a super study to assess Super Bowl teams. With this painstakingly-detailed look at playoff team precedence, a few key outliers can illustrate which future playoff teams are likely to win the Super Bowl and which future playoff teams are likely to come up short. This study includes 13 statistical factors that impact a playoff team’s championship viability.
Today, the study focuses on the impact of per-play efficiency, both on offense and defense, for the Super Bowl combatants. The chart below examines each Super Bowl team’s yards per play differential.
Table 13: Yards per Play Differential (rounded to the nearest tenth)
| SB | Winner | PRD | SB | Loser | PRD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 66 Packers | +1.1 | I | 66 Chiefs | +1.5 | |
| II | 67 Packers | +1.0 | II | 67 Raiders | +1.5 | |
| III | 68 Jets | +1.4 | III | 68 Colts | +1.5 | |
| IV | 69 Chiefs | +1.1 | IV | 69 Vikings | +1.3 | |
| V | 70 Colts | +0.4 | V | 70 Cowboys | +1.0 | |
| VI | 71 Cowboys | +1.4 | VI | 71 Dolphins | +0.9 | |
| VII | 72 Dolphins | +1.3 | VII | 72 Redskins | +1.0 | |
| VIII | 73 Dolphins | +1.6 | VIII | 73 Vikings | +0.4 | |
| IX | 74 Steelers | +1.0 | IX | 74 Vikings | +0.6 | |
| X | 75 Steelers | +0.9 | X | 75 Cowboys | +0.9 | |
| XI | 76 Raiders | +0.7 | XI | 76 Vikings | +0.5 | |
| XII | 77 Cowboys | +1.3 | XII | 77 Broncos | +0.3 | |
| XIII | 78 Steelers | +0.6 | XIII | 78 Cowboys | +1.3 | |
| XIV | 79 Steelers | +1.7 | XIV | 79 Rams | +0.4 | |
| XV | 80 Raiders | +0.1 | XV | 80 Eagles | +1.0 | |
| XVI | 81 49ers | +0.3 | XVI | 81 Bengals | +0.5 | |
| XVII | 82 Redskins | +0.4 | XVII | 82 Dolphins | +0.4 | |
| XVIII | 83 Raiders | +0.6 | XVIII | 83 Redskins | +0.0 | |
| XIX | 84 49ers | +1.0 | XIX | 84 Dolphins | +1.3 | |
| XX | 85 Bears | +1.0 | XX | 85 Patriots | +0.7 | |
| XXI | 86 Giants | +0.2 | XXI | 86 Broncos | +0.2 | |
| XXII | 87 Redskins | +0.7 | XXII | 87 Broncos | +0.2 | |
| XXIII | 88 49ers | +1.0 | XXIII | 88 Bengals | +1.2 | |
| XXIV | 89 49ers | +1.4 | XXIV | 89 Broncos | +0.3 | |
| XXV | 90 Giants | +0.4 | XXV | 90 Bills | +1.0 | |
| XXVI | 91 Redskins | +1.3 | XXVI | 91 Bills | +0.9 | |
| XXVII | 92 Cowboys | +1.0 | XXVII | 92 Bills | +0.8 | |
| XXVIII | 93 Cowboys | +0.9 | XXVIII | 93 Bills | -0.1 | |
| XXIX | 94 49ers | +0.9 | XXIX | 94 Chargers | +0.1 | |
| XXX | 95 Cowboys | +0.8 | XXX | 95 Steelers | +0.4 | |
| XXXI | 96 Packers | +1.1 | XXXI | 96 Patriots | -0.1 | |
| XXXII | 97 Broncos | +0.6 | XXXII | 97 Packers | +1.0 | |
| XXXIII | 98 Broncos | +1.0 | XXXIII | 98 Falcons | +0.5 | |
| XXXIV | 99 Rams | +1.8 | XXXIV | 99 Titans | -0.1 | |
| XXXV | 00 Ravens | +0.4 | XXXV | 00 Giants | +0.5 | |
| XXXVI | 01 Patriots | -0.4 | XXXVI | 01 Rams | +1.9 | |
| XXXVII | 02 Buccaneers | +0.7 | XXXVII | 02 Raiders | +0.8 | |
| XXXVIII | 03 Patriots | +0.4 | XXXVIII | 03 Panthers | +0.4 | |
| XXXIX | 04 Patriots | +0.5 | XXXIX | 04 Eagles | +1.0 | |
| XL | 05 Steelers | +0.8 | XL | 05 Seahawks | +0.9 | |
| XLI | 06 Colts | +0.5 | XLI | 06 Bears | +0.4 | |
| XLII | 07 Giants | +0.1 | XLII | 07 Patriots | +1.3 | |
| XLIII | 08 Steelers | +1.0 | XLIII | 08 Cardinals | +0.6 | |
| XLIV | 09 Saints | +0.8 | XLIV | 09 Colts | +0.9 | |
| XLV | 10 Packers | +0.6 | XLV | 10 Steelers | +1.1 | |
| XLVI | 11 Giants | +0.4 | XLVI | 11 Patriots | +0.1 | |
| XLVII | 12 Ravens | +0.2 | XLVII | 12 49ers | +1.3 | |
| XLVIII | 13 Seahawks | +1.2 | XLVIII | 13 Broncos | +1.0 | |
| XLIX | 14 Patriots | +0.2 | XLIX | 14 Seahawks | +1.3 |
Red flag: Negative yards per play differential
Amber flag: Positive yards per play differential of +0.2 yards or worse
There is no era-related trend, although all the flagged teams are from the Live Ball Era. It seemed that teams more frequently dominated in yards per play differential while winning Super Bowl back during the Dead Ball Era.
Now let’s compile a list of Super Bowl teams that earned red or amber flags in the 13 factors for playoff team precedence. This will allows us to see how many Super Bowl teams compiled flags and determine how many flags a normal Super Bowl team should own. We’ll then determine the most unlikely Super Bowl combatants. First, here’s the overall Super Bowl champions flag count:
- Eight red flags, two amber flags: 2007 Giants
- Six red flags, one amber flag: 2011 Giants
- Two red flags, one amber flag: 1988 49ers, 2001 Patriots
- Two red flags: 1999 Rams, 2010 Packers
- One red flag, five amber flags: 2012 Ravens
- One red flag, two amber flags: 1979 Steelers, 2006 Colts
- One red flag, one amber flag: 1970 Colts, 1981 49ers
- One red flag: 1972 Dolphins, 1983 Raiders, 1993 Cowboys
- Three amber flags: 1980 Raiders, 1987 Redskins
- Two amber flags: 1974 Steelers, 2000 Ravens, 2009 Saints
- One amber flag: 1967 Packers, 1969 Chiefs, 1976 Raiders, 1986 Giants, 1995 Cowboys, 1997 Broncos, 2005 Steelers, 2014 Patriots
Next, here’s the overall Super Bowl losers flag count:
- Six red flags: 2008 Cardinals
- Four red flags, four amber flags: 1979 Rams
- Two red flags, four amber flags: 2003 Panthers
- Two red flags, one amber flag: 1981 Bengals, 1996 Patriots
- Two red flags: 1998 Falcons
- One red flag, two amber flags: 1994 Chargers, 1999 Titans
- One red flag, one amber flag: 1988 Bengals, 2000 Giants
- One red flag: 1980 Eagles, 1993 Bills, 2001 Rams, 2002 Raiders, 2005 Seahawks
- Six amber flags: 1986 Broncos
- Four amber flags: 1970 Cowboys, 1992 Bills
- Three amber flags: 1985 Patriots
- Two amber flags: 1987 Broncos, 2004 Eagles, 2011 Patriots, 2012 49ers
- One amber flag: 1969 Vikings, 1971 Dolphins, 1972 Redskins, 1982 Dolphins, 1983 Redskins, 1984 Dolphins, 1989 Broncos, 1995 Steelers, 2006 Bears, 2009 Colts, 2010 Steelers
In total there were 57 red flags and 88 amber flags handed down to the 98 Super Bowl teams, making approximately a 1.48-flag average per team. In total, 37 Super Bowl combatants (37.76 percent) didn’t receive a single flag.
Tomorrow, we will put a wrap to this study with some final observations about the frequency of red flags and amber flags, as well as a rankings list to determine the most unlikely Super Bowl participants.