The majority of experts agreed on most of the Week 3 games, so there’s not much to discussing this week. There were only four outcomes of note as it relates to the Pick’em competition. First, our Cowboys prediction failed, thanks to a miserable second half overshadowing a strong first half. Second, our Ravens prediction failed. Baltimore overcame a 14-point deficit at one point with a defensive touchdown, but the team allowed an 80-yard touchdown pass on the next play from scrimmage. That’s oh so fitting of a Bengals-Ravens game over the past few years. Third, we rue not pulling the trigger on amending the Jets prediction and taking the Eagles for our upset special. This was in our gut, but we trusted the system we place in place the last two years. Fourth, the Bills beat the Dolphins for our most helpful outcome of the week. Odds are that wasn’t enough to help us gain ground on the competition. We probably actually lost some ground. Let’s get to the Pick’em results, where you see how the big losses hurt us.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(6) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at (16) Baltimore Ravens (0-2) **Upset of the Week**
(11) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at (5) Dallas Cowboys (2-0)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) Washington Redskins (1-1) at (27) New York Giants (0-2)
(29) New Orleans Saints (0-2) at (7) Carolina Panthers (2-0) **Amended Pick**
(14) Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at (26) Tennessee Titans (1-1)
(17) San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
(10) Buffalo Bills (1-1) at (15) Miami Dolphins (1-1)
The Rest (1 point each)
(28) Oakland Raiders (1-1) at (19) Cleveland Browns (1-1)
(31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at (23) Houston Texans (0-2)
(18) San Diego Chargers (1-1) at (22) Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at (1) New England Patriots (2-0)
(24) Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at (12) New York Jets (2-0)
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at (21) St. Louis Rams (1-1)
(32) Chicago Bears (0-2) at (8) Seattle Seahawks (0-2) **Lock of the Week**
(3) Denver Broncos (2-0) at (20) Detroit Lions (0-2)
(13) Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) at (2) Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Just note that it’s never a good thing to lose all your Games of the Week picks. That’s unfortunately what happened to us in Week 3, making a solid week look not so good in context. Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 12-4 and 17 points (out of 25 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 29-19 and 48 points (60.42 win and 60 point percentage)
- Games of the Week: 0-2 this week (5-4 overall… 55.56 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 5-1 this week (10-4 overall… 71.42 win percentage) [includes 1-2 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 0-3 overall (0 ranking points… 0 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 2-1 overall (current streak: Seahawks… best streak: one week)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 33-15 | 1 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 55 | |
| 1 | K. Johnson | 33-15 | 1 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 53 | |
| 3 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 32-16 | 1 | T. Jackson | 53 | |
| 4 | C. Carter | 31-17 | 4 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 52 | |
| 4 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 31-17 | 5 | M. Faulk | 51 | |
| 4 | V. Iyer | 31-17 | 5 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 51 | |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 30-18 | 7 | J. Bell | 50 | |
| 7 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 30-18 | 8 | Don Banks, SI | 49 | |
| 7 | K. Joyner | 30-18 | 8 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 49 | |
| 7 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 30-18 | 8 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 49 | |
| M | Mean Record | 29.04-18.96 | 8 | S. Wickersham | 49 | |
| 11 | D. Banks | 29-19 | 12 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 48 | |
| 11 | A. Dobrowolski | 29-19 | 12 | FiveThirtyEight | 48 | |
| 11 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 29-19 | 12 | R. Jaworski | 48 | |
| 11 | M. Irvin | 29-19 | M | Mean Points | 47.68 | |
| 11 | P. Prisco | 29-19 | 15 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 47 | |
| 16 | Nate Davis, USAT | 28-20 | 15 | M. Hoge | 47 | |
| 16 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 28-20 | 17 | N. Davis | 46 | |
| 18 | Football Outsiders | 27-21 | 17 | M. Ditka | 46 | |
| 18 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 27-21 | 17 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 46 | |
| 18 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 27-21 | 20 | FB Outsiders | 45 | |
| 18 | C. Mortensen | 27-21 | 21 | S. Mariucci | 44 | |
| 18 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 27-21 | 21 | M. Schlereth | 44 | |
| 18 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 27-21 | 23 | M. Golic | 43 | |
| 24 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 26-22 | 24 | K. Warner | 41 | |
| 24 | A. Caplan | 26-22 | 25 | E. Allen | 38 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Three brothers from ESPN (Jackson, Johnson and Carter) are currently running the show. It’s a huge step for Johnson too. Meanwhile, we clearly still have work to do here, both local and abroad. After beating all experts two years in a row, according to our comparisons to the NFL Pickwatch prediction logs, we rank in a tie for 57st out of the 134 experts who predicted all 48 games from Weeks 1 through 3.
Leading up to Week 4, we have one more week of considering our 2015 NFL Season Predictions for our picks. However, that will only account for 25 percent of the equation. How much will change for us during those predictions? Find out Saturday night!