The 2015 NFL Postseason is set to begin this weekend, with Super Bowl 50 on the line. We need to figure out which teams have the best chance of advancing in the postseason, given the possible match-ups. Furthermore, we need to also pick the postseason games effectively so we can have a chance to win the 2015 Pick’em championship. After winning 18 of 22 postseason games from the previous two postseasons, we know at least one way to achieve this. Therefore, we will detail the Four Postseason Factors as it relates to the 12 current NFL playoff teams. We’ll continue this analysis today with the third factor, which is the TABRankings.
We previously explained the reason for using the TABRankings as such:
We use these rankings merely a loose guideline to determine each team’s overall quality of play. Don’t look to split hairs here. Only give the advantage to a team that owns a notable advantage in the points total.
Therefore, we will finish our business with the Regular Season TABRankings for the 2015 season. Remember, the formula for the 2015 TABRankings in the regular season looks like so:
The TABRankings formula:
(Win Pct x 2)+(Pyth Pct)+(Div Pct x 0.5)+(Qual Pct x 0.5)+(3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(TO Margin x 4)-(FK Diff x 0.75)+(Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.25)+(Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)
The 2015 totals from the above formula make up the Raw TABR, which make up the core factor of the rankings. Add in the Opponent Adjustment, based on strength of schedule, and this will create the True TABR for the regular season.
The TABRankings opponent adjustment formula:
[(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR] * X
NOTE: The multiple X will be determined as the variable that fits the equation: (1/6) * TABR IQR = X * Adjustment IQR.
For this week, the multiple was determined to be 1.4.
With now all that put together, the results for the 2015 regular season are available below. Note that we compare to these rankings to last year, instead of last week. Last year’s rankings are indicated in the “LY” column. Also note that the 12 playoff teams are indicated in blue, so you can see how far these teams are separated in the rankings.
The TABRankings top eight:
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True TABRankings — Regular Season
| Rank | LY | Team | Record | Raw TABR | Adjustment | True TABR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | Carolina Panthers | 15-1 | 570.77 (1st) | -67.70 (32nd) | 503.07 |
| 2 | 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 | 474.76 (2nd) | -20.89 (25th) | 453.87 |
| 3 | 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 | 442.29 (4th) | -10.02 (20th) | 432.27 |
| 4 | 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-5 | 432.60 (5th) | -9.81 (19th) | 422.79 |
| 5 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | 396.04 (6th) | 11.58 (14th) | 407.62 |
| 6 | 1 | New England Patriots | 12-4 | 446.24 (3rd) | -38.75 (30th) | 407.49 |
| 7 | 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | 329.16 (9th) | 14.41 (9th) | 343.57 |
| 8 | 4 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 | 325.77 (10th) | 13.50 (12th) | 339.27 |
| 9 | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 11-5 | 329.23 (8th) | 1.33 (16th) | 330.56 |
| 10 | 2 | Green Bay Packers | 10-6 | 297.26 (13th) | 27.37 (7th) | 324.63 |
| 11 | 15 | Houston Texans | 9-7 | 308.62 (11th) | -13.43 (22nd) | 295.19 |
| 12 | 27 | New York Jets | 10-6 | 347.08 (7th) | -62.62 (31st) | 284.46 |
| 13 | 9 | Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | 258.61 (14th) | 13.33 (13th) | 271.94 |
| 14 | 29 | Washington Redskins | 9-7 | 302.39 (12th) | -34.52 (29th) | 267.87 |
| 15 | 23 | St. Louis Rams | 7-9 | 218.84 (15th) | 30.25 (6th) | 249.09 |
| 16 | 28 | Oakland Raiders | 7-9 | 196.96 (17th) | 9.84 (15th) | 206.80 |
| 17 | 8 | Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 170.42 (20th) | 30.87 (5th) | 201.29 |
| 18 | 24 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 205.96 (16th) | -8.06 (17th) | 197.90 |
| 19 | 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7-9 | 159.55 (22nd) | 18.06 (8th) | 177.61 |
| 20 | 20 | New York Giants | 6-10 | 177.64 (18th) | -10.60 (21st) | 167.04 |
| 21 | 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-9 | 173.84 (19th) | -9.09 (18th) | 164.75 |
| 22 | 26 | Chicago Bears | 6-10 | 110.95 (24th) | 47.63 (4th) | 158.58 |
| 23 | 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-8 | 167.80 (21st) | -26.88 (27th) | 140.92 |
| 24 | 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-10 | 135.74 (23rd) | -23.38 (26th) | 112.36 |
| 25 | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 86.86 (26th) | 14.32 (10th) | 101.18 |
| 26 | 19 | San Diego Chargers | 4-12 | 79.09 (27th) | 14.20 (11th) | 93.29 |
| 27 | 18 | San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 24.53 (29th) | 56.14 (1st) | 80.67 |
| 28 | 17 | Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 88.42 (25th) | -18.91 (24th) | 69.51 |
| 29 | 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 | 8.38 (30th) | 48.73 (2nd) | 57.11 |
| 30 | 22 | Cleveland Browns | 3-13 | -13.12 (31st) | 48.10 (3rd) | 34.98 |
| 31 | 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 46.21 (28th) | -29.54 (28th) | 16.67 |
| 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3-13 | -26.45 (32nd) | -15.26 (23rd) | -41.71 |
Mean: 227.27 points; Standard Deviation: 142.68 points
As you can see, the TABRankings are totally satisfied with the way the postseason picture played out. The top six AFC teams and top six NFC teams all reached the playoffs, giving us the most relatively complete group in the past four seasons. Remember, the previous three seasons saw a 19th-ranked teams and a pair of 20th-ranked teams win their divisions. Here, Washington is the worst team at the 14th spot, but two AFC East teams finish ahead of them. It ended up that the AFC was the more top heavy conference, but it also had six of the worst eight teams in the regular season rankings. We think that dynamic will have no impact on the postseason.
Now looking at the 12 playoff teams, it’s important to note that six of the teams own a point total at least one standard deviation above the mean (369.95 points or better). Meanwhile, no team is two standard deviations above the mean (512.63 points or better), although Carolina is the only team to be close. Considering that, we think there’s good reason to split this group up into two categories: (1) Super Bowl contenders and (2) Super Bowl pretenders. Note that the seventh-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers are closer to the 12th-ranked New York Jets than the sixth-ranked Patriots. Thus, the gap is quite legitimate. When one group goes up against another, it’s clear who we think will have the advantage. When two teams of the same group match up, the advantage will be determined by TABR differential.
Note that these rankings will change week to week, so maybe of the six pretenders can suddenly emerge as a legitimate contenders. For now, though, we have our clear contenders and pretenders. This will be applied to our Four Postseason Factors breakdown in a head-to-head context. Now that this factor is complete, we will reveal the results of Playoff Team Precedence for our fourth and final factor. Make sure to check that out tomorrow as continue we will conclude our week-long postseason study!