As the final week of preparation for Super Bowl XLIX continues, we move to the third part of a six-part examination on some key stories heading into the big game. Each part will use regression analysis, comparative analysis or playoff precedence to examine each chapter of this narrative. Today, we examine how the postseason reign for the New England Patriots stacks up to past postseason reigns in the Super Bowl. We focus on the 2001-14 Patriots as they compare to the 1966-85 Cowboys and the 1981-98 49ers.
Despite all the time the Mainstream Media focused on “Deflate-Gate” and all that surrounding controversy, there are actually several much more interesting narratives heading into Super Bowl XLIX. Over the previous two days, we examined the respective turning points of regression for each conference champion. It comes as an interesting narrative that both teams overcame unimpressive starts to each earn home-field advantage in their respective conferences. Each team hit the .500 mark at one point of the season, with New England starting 2-2 and Seattle starting 3-3. It took the Gronk effect and Seattle’s red zone defensive regression reverse those fortunes.
For both teams to finish as conference champions in both the regular season and postseason, it makes a large statement. Perhaps it could be that there was no truly great NFL team this season, but don’t see it that way. In fact, this Super Bowl features the top seed from both conferences for the second consecutive season. Before this, the previous two times this happened were in 2009… and 1993. Since the league implemented a seeding system in 1975, the AFC1 v. NFC1 Super Bowl only happened in consecutive seasons thrice. Besides now, the other two times were in 1976-77 and 1983-84. That means this match-up was 30 years in the making.
Or perhaps this type of match-up was even longer in the making. Rarely have we ever seen the type of postseason match-up we will on Sunday, one that pits a long-established playoff power against an up-and-coming team that could establish itself a mega power to be. If the former team wins, it continues to reign over the NFL. If the latter team wins, it could end up being a passing of the torch. We’ve seen this before at the conference championship level (re: The Catch), but perhaps never in the Super Bowl. This rare narrative invites the conversation about how the New England Patriots fit in with past long-established playoff powers.
For today’s study, we will examine how the 2001-14 Patriots to other multi-decade dynastic postseason reigns in the Super Bowl era. We will compare these reigns using era-adjusted regular season success, postseason advancement rates and championship credentials. Have the Patriots already surpassed these past giants of the second season, or do they need another Super Bowl championship to reach or get closer to the previous kings of the NFL?