Super Bowl XLIX: Examining the Postseason Emergence of the Seattle Seahawks

As the final week of preparation for Super Bowl XLIX continues, we move to the fourth part of a six-part examination on some key stories heading into the big game. Each part will use regression analysis, comparative analysis or playoff precedence to examine each chapter of this narrative. Today, we examine how the postseason emergence of the Seattle Seahawks looks eerily familiar to that of a franchise that won three Super Bowls in four seasons. We compare the 2011-14 Seahawks to the 1990-93 Dallas Cowboys.

As we mentioned yesterday, rarely have we ever seen the type of postseason match-up we will on Sunday, one that pits a long-established playoff power against an up-and-coming team that could establish itself a mega power to be. If the former team wins, it continues to reign over the NFL. If the latter team wins, it could end up being a passing of the torch. We’ve seen this before at the conference championship level (re: The Catch), but perhaps never in the Super Bowl.

This rare narrative invites the conversation about how the Seattle Seahawks fit in with previous emerging powers. In just a few years, the Seahawks overcame a recent string of mediocrity to get in position for a Super Bowl repeat. This flip of the switch, so to say, is quite rare and impressive in the National Football League. With a win Sunday night, Seattle will become the ninth repeat champion. Compare this to the previous repeat champions, and you’ll see where the Seahawks differ from the pack.

• 1967 Packers: 9th-year head coach with team, 12th-year quarterback, pre-merger postseason run, 29.2 AV-adjusted age
• 1973 Dolphins: 4th-year head coach with team, 7th-year quarterback, 4-year postseason run, 27.7 AV-adjusted age
• 1975 Steelers: 7th-year head coach with team, 6th-year quarterback, 4-year postseason run, 27.2 AV-adjusted age
• 1979 Steelers: 11th-year head coach with team, 10th-year quarterback, 8-year postseason run, 28.8 AV-adjusted age
• 1989 49ers: 1st-year head coach with team, 11th-year quarterback, 9-year postseason run*, 28.2 AV-adjusted age
• 1993 Cowboys: 5th-year head coach with team, 5th-year quarterback, 3-year postseason run, 27.2 AV-adjusted age
• 1998 Broncos: 4th-year head coach with team, 16th-year quarterback, 3-year postseason run, 30.1 AV-adjusted age
• 2004 Patriots: 5th-year head coach with team, 5th-year quarterback, 4-year postseason run*, 28.2 AV-adjusted age
• 2014 Seahawks: 5th-year head coach with team, 3rd-year quarterback, 3-year postseason run, 26.1 AV-adjusted age**

Note that the single asterisk denotes a postseason run that involved the franchise missing the playoffs one year after winning the Super Bowl, only to rebound and making the postseason the following seasons. We firmly believe the 1982 49ers and 2002 Patriots were outlier teams victimized by regression. Also note that the double asterisk denotes an AV-adjusted age we personally calculated. We’re not sure if it’s the same exact method Chase Stuart used, as he didn’t fully explain his methods in his Checkdowns article.

Can the Seahawks repeat as Super Bowl champions?

If that bit of information is accurate, we see two truly comparable situations to that of the 2014 Seahawks. In the early 1970s, Steelers were a young team trying to put together a winning formula that the franchise never saw before in nearly four decade. The franchise was putting the pieces together, but the process sped up when the Steelers selected four eventual Hall of Famers in the 1974 NFL Draft. That season led to the first of four Super Bowl championships in six seasons. However, the similarities to Seattle pretty much end there.

The other comparable situation is an uncanny one. At the turn of the decade into the 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys were reeling from the winds of change. As the franchise got a new owner in Jerry Jones, he new head coach in Jimmy Johnson joined him. It was the darkest day in Cowboys history to see the great Tom Landry go, but an adage held true. It’s darkest before dawn, and Johnson made sure a positive new dawn arrived. After a forgettable 1-15 season saw Johnson and rookie quarterback Troy Aikman cut their teeth. In 1990, the progress truly started with a 7-9 record. By 1991, the team showed flashes of future greatness with an 11-5 record and an upset victory over the then-undefeated Redskins. Then came back-to-back Super Bowl championships.

And that’s just the start of it. Both head coaches came off of a stint as a championship-winning college head coach. Both tenures (Johnson with “the U” Miami and Pete Carroll with USC) involved their share of controversy. Both teams employed a run-heavy offense that compliments a passing game that uses the deep ball quite well. Both teams also enjoyed a young defense the peaked during its first Super Bowl championship run. That Cowboys squad had the future in its hands, but the Jones-Johnson breakup ended up being a long-lingering blow that saw the franchise settle for three championships in four seasons and an ensuing history of mediocrity.

With a win on Sunday, this Seahawks team can follow the footsteps of the 1990-93 Cowboys and become repeat Super Bowl champions with a great future ahead of them. Pete Carroll doesn’t seem at odds his ownerships, and he doesn’t seem ready to slow down. Russell Wilson is younger than what Aikman was by his second championship, and he has an added element with his scrambling ability. In fact, we think that ability is reminiscent of another Cowboys quarterback that won multiple Super Bowl, one in Roger Staubach.

It’s funny to claim that the 1990s Cowboys “settled for three championships,” but it’s a sentiment that reflects a notion that the franchise had unfinished business despite a Super Bowl repeat. Could the same be lying in the sand for the 2010s Seahawks? Check out the eerie similarities below between the 1990-93 Cowboys and the 2011-14 Seahawks.

Table 1: Comparing the ‘Boys to the ‘Hawks

Pyth W: Pythagorean Wins (with exponent 2.37 from 1990-93 and 2.40 from 2011-14); Pass O: Average Pass Offense Rank (used in Four Factors Team Balance study); Rush O: Average Rush Offense Rank; Pass D: Average Pass Defense Rank; Rush D: Average Rush Defense Rank

Note that the stats aren’t complete for some years. First, the stats for first down percentage were not available in 1990. Second, the Offensive and Defensive Hog Indexes were created by Cold, Hard Football Facts well after the 1990s Cowboys made their run. Finally, the Offensive and Defensive Rush Ratings were not calculated by CHFF until 2012.

Anyways, the parallels were quite striking. Both teams experienced a huge spike in production offensively during their respective 11-5 seasons. By the Super Bowl seasons, each team became dominant on one side of the football while holding up fairly on the other side. However, both teams were dominant offensively and defensively in their respective first Super Bowl seasons. The 1992 Cowboys averaged a top-10 rank in pass offense, rush offense, pass defense and rush defense. The 2013 Seahawks had net scoring and net passing efficiency that rival the best Super Bowl champions ever. Eventually, by the second Super Bowl season, the less dominant of the two units took a step back. Still, both teams were among the most balanced teams (if not the most balanced) in their respective seasons.

If the Seahawks emerge victorious in Super Bowl XLIX, we can begin to speculate what Seattle can do in the offseason to avoid the fate that derailed hopes of a Dallas dynasty. Maybe there’s even talk about a three-peat. With this win, perhaps we also see the torch passed from the Patriots to the Seahawks, allowing Seattle to become to NFL’s best franchise in the business.