After an extremely strong start to the NFL 2013 Pick’em, I look keep it up with a great showing this week. There’s not much stray from what I did last week, in that put focus much on how the 2013 NFL Season Predictions panned out. There will be a few changes made, as some teams already look notably better or worse than expected. Such changes will be noted.
Remember, using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, as well as the challenge of predicting each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Next week, the season predictions will be phased out a bit more, depending on what happens for teams here in Week 2. If the results are as good or better this week, the season predictions might be used as a general playoff again.
For now, let’s get down to business.
Note: With everyone in this “competition” selecting the Patriots, there was simply no need note who I was going with in the Thursday Night Football game. As expected, the Patriots won, albeit in less than impressive fashion.
Games of the Week (3 points)
(11) St. Louis Rams (1-0) at (9) Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
I chose the Falcons to go 3-1 in their intra-conference match-ups against the NFC West. Meanwhile, I chose the Rams to go 1-3 against the NFC South. Note that Atlanta QB Matt Ryan holds a 34-7 home record as a starter. Don’t expect the exception for both teams to come here in Week 2, even though the Rams would love to be two games over .500 for the first time since their Week 7 bye date in 2006.
(14) Washington Redskins (0-1) at (7) Green Bay Packers (0-1)
En route to a 12-4 record and an NFC North crown, the prediction took into consideration a clean sweep of the NFC East. With Robert Griffin III’s slow first-half play last Monday, due in large part to his recovering knee and rusty play, there’s absolutely no reason to think that this will be any different through Week 2. Maybe that 0-2 start is enough to keep Washington out of the playoffs, as expected.
(15) Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at (8) Chicago Bears (1-0)
Just like with last week’s match-up, I don’t see Minnesota getting the road victory despite an expected split for this NFC North season series. Funny how home sweet home can make a difference between 2-0 and 0-2 — for both teams.
(3) Denver Broncos (1-0) at (12) New York Giants (0-1)
Bad things happen to Super Bowl hosts, especially as of late. The 2010 Cowboys lost Tony Romo for the season after six starts. The 2011 Colts never had Peyton Manning on the field. The 2012 Saints never had Sean Peyton on the sideline. Remember, the last Super Bowl host to make the postseason was the 2000 Buccaneers. That’s a big reason why the Giants were expected to start 0-2. Given what Peyton Manning did in Week 1 to Baltimore, this one could be even uglier than initially expected.
(2) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
Remember last year’s game in Seattle? I’m sure the 49ers do, but probably not as much as the Super Bowl XLVII loss to Baltimore. This rivalry isn’t being overhyped, as it’s tough to remember two teams being this balanced and this good play in the same division the same season. However, the revenge is totally being overhyped. I didn’t expect the 49ers to win this game when I made the predictions, and virtually nothing has changed now. Seattle takes its first step to an NFC West crown with this win.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(25) New York Jets (1-0) at (1) New England Patriots (1-0)
In certain ways, the Patriots were considerably outplayed the Bills outplayed last week. However, nothing either New York or New England did last week makes me think this game will be the exception to my prediction of the Patriots going 6-0 in AFC East.
(23) Tennessee Titans (1-0) at (5) Houston Texans (1-0)
As mentioned in my weekly “Stat Pack” podcast, available exclusively on Cold, Hard Football Facts, Houston’s first half stupidity was the primary cause for their 28-7 deficit in San Diego last Monday. Yet, the Texans showed perseverence and still came out on top against the Chargers. The Texans are expected to win the division, and they’re going to do so in part with home wins within in the division.
(30) Cleveland Browns (0-1) at (6) Baltimore Ravens (0-1) **Lock of the Week**
The Browns aren’t doing much to move up in the AFC North ranks. That’s why they were predicted to go 1-5 against the division and finish in last place. So far, they are doing everything to seem like they’ll continue to go down those tracks. With the Ravens raising a banner and celebrating the Super Bowl XLVII victory, I’ll lock in this choice.
(10) New Orleans Saints (1-0) at (21) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
It cannot be understated how tough road divisional games are for the NFC South. For that reason, the season predictions considered a Tampa Bay victory in Week 2. However, this is one of two changes from the original publication. As much as it pains to say, it already seems apparent by Week 1 that Josh Freeman isn’t going to improve his accuracy or consistency. The former problem bothers me more, and I simply don’t have any confidence that Freeman can keep up with Drew Brees. I felt the need to make the change.
(26) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) at (17) Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
With the Steelers laying the stinkiest of eggs in Week 1, this one seem like the game they steal a victory. The experts are all going for the Bengals, and that just seems wrong after all these years of stellar Steelers football. However, there’s good reason to remain stubborn to the season predictions. It worked in 12 games last week, after all. One of the landmark decisions in these predictions were to choose Cincinnati to win the division and finally earn a postseason win in the Marvin Lewis Era. Let’s stick with it, especially when Cincinnati fields the better team. I do this with some hesitation, but it’s not like I have much to lose by taking the Bengals.
The Rest (1 point each)
(24) San Diego Chargers (0-1) at (27) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
En route to a prediction of winning the NFC East, the Eagles were chosen to go 3-1 against the AFC West in those conference crossover games. With San Diego having the 10am local time cross-country trip, don’t expect that loss to happen here.
(13) Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at (29) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) **Upset of the Week**
The Cowboys got a decent projection and were predicted to finish one game behind the Eagles. That difference wasn’t expected to come against the AFC West, as I too think the Cowboys will go 3-1 in their crossover games. However, I actually think their loss comes here. Dallas strangely plays well in regular-season games against the elite teams that are supposed to “overmatch” them. Tony Romo and crew defeated the 2006 Colts (9-0) and 2009 Saints (13-0). So I think, as of now, they have a chance to beat the Broncos. Meanwhile, I chose KC to go an even 2-2 against the tough NFC East. Dallas didn’t play very well last week, so it carries over. Remember, the Cowboys haven’t started 2-0 since they did so back-to-back years in 2007 and 2008. Finally, with Tony Romo’s consistent first-quarter struggles, that allows the Arrowhead crowd to juice up a promising front seven.
(16) Miami Dolphins (1-0) at (20) Indianapolis Colts (1-0)
This game is one of the two changes I made from the season predictions. Both teams were expected to split their “plus-2” games. For Indy, the road game in Cincinnati counts as the second such game. For the Dolphins, their other such game was an early home game against San Diego. The two outcomes (Colts loss, Dolphins win) still look very likely. However, for the purpose of this game, I could not ignore the uninspiring performance by Indianapolis in Week 1. The Colts barely beat the Raiders at home, in a game that Oakland played at 10am local time. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense looked very strong against the Browns. I think Miami makes the trusty pick.
(19) Carolina Panthers (0-1) at (28) Buffalo Bills (0-1)
As expected, the Panthers are dangerously close to another poor start. Much of that original prediction, and the reality as it stands right now, involved the tough task of getting the Seahawks in Week 1. I predicted Carolina to go 3-1 in their crossover games against the AFC East. Considering I expect this to happen along the way to a playoff berth, this was and is one of those crossover victories.
(18) Detroit Lions (1-0) at (22) Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
The season predictions didn’t express much confidence for the Cardinals to see their record improve along with the inevitable regression in offensive play. However, it did think that the Cardinals would split their “plus-2” games. Arizona’s two such games include this one and an early road game (11am Arizona time) in Philadelphia later in the year. Even though the Lions might seem to be feeling high after their Week 1 victory, this seems like a logical step back in the long road trip to the desert.
(32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at (31) Oakland Raiders (0-1)
Two weeks. Two match-ups with #32 at #31. Two times this involves the Jaguars. Two times we’ll wait to have the Jaguars get their lone win against the AFC West. (If that even happens. The predictions considered Jacksonville winning a home game against a San Diego traveling across the country for the 10am local time. If the Jags play as bad as they did last week, then it will mean 0-4 v. the AFC West.)