By looking at the final results of the four games, it looks like we were one botched officiating job away from having a rousing success for Wild Card Weekend. However, with two games featuring some extent of the loser blowing the game and a third game featuring an 11-point comeback, there were many times over the weekend in which we had to sweat it out. In the end, the most telling part of our predictions did not directly involve the Four Postseason Factors. Rather, it was our predicted scores. Check them out:
- Kansas City at Houston: Chiefs 23, Texans 6 (predicted) v. Chiefs 30, Texans 0 (actual)
- Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Bengals 17, Steelers 16 (predicted) v. Steelers 18, Bengals 16 (actual)
- Seattle at Minnesota: Seahawks 13, Vikings 10 (predicted) v. Seahawks 10, Vikings 9 (actual)
- Green Bay at Washington: Packers 27, ‘Skins 17 (predicted) v. Packers 35, ‘Skins 18 (actual)
We predicted five of the eight teams within three points of their actual total. Meanwhile, no team tallied more than an eight-point differential from our predictions. The Four Postseason Factors helped us to almost perfectly understand the game flow for each match-up, and we think that had our Wild Card Weekend as good as any in the land. Only minor nuanced things (e.g.: Chiefs return touchdown, Texans failed garbage time touchdown, Steelers gifted field goal opportunity) were overlooked. That can only be expected.
Of course, functionally speaking for the Pick’em competition, that Bengals loss hurts a lot. While the ending will certainly replay in many minds, we can only wonder what would’ve happened if the offense didn’t wait until the fourth quarter to make up for lost time. Cincinnati overcame a 15-0 lead after several flubbed opportunities. This includes other nitpicks about the officiating, but we will spare the whining. Regardless, had the Bengals won, it would’ve been us and FiveThirtyEight duking it out until the end. Instead, we have some company…
Now let’s get to the results from Wild Card Weekend and the standings in the Pick’em competition.
Wild Card Weekend (6 points each)
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at (11) Houston Texans (9-7)
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at (3) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
(5) Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at (9) Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
(10) Green Bay Packers (10-6) at (14) Washington Redskins (9-7)
Check out where we stand:
- This week’s record and points: 3-1 and 18 points (out of 24 possible points)
- Overall record and points: 167-93 and 295 points (64.23 win and 64.69 point percentage)
- Postseason: 3-1 and 18 points (75 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 29-17 overall (63.04 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 62-34 overall (64.8 win percentage) [includes 7-8 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 6-10 overall (94 ranking points… 37.5 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 13-3 overall (best streak: 10 weeks)
Now for the competition. This is a 25-person battle, led by the two-time champion TABMathletics. The rest includes both Mainstream Sports Media outlets and the “next gen” statistical website. Thus, the competition includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and four experts from NFL Network who work on Gameday Morning. The competition panel also includes Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Jarrett Bell of USA Today, Nate Davis of USA Today and Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News. All of these pundits have been around the block since Dobrowolski first got into football statistical analysis way back in 2005. As for our fellow analytical brethren, we will include Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight.
Below, we have a table to show the weekly standings. This includes both the gross record and gross points for the season.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight Elo | 170-90 | 1 | FiveThirtyEight | 296 | |
| 2 | Adam Dobrowolski, TABM | 167-93 | 2 | Vinnie Iyer, SN | 296 | |
| 3 | V. Iyer | 166-94 | 3 | A. Dobrowolski | 295 | |
| 4 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 165-95 | 4 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 292 | |
| 5 | Jarrett Bell, USAT | 164-96 | 5 | J. Bell | 291 | |
| 6 | K. Johnson | 163-97 | 6 | C. Mortensen | 290 | |
| 7 | Don Banks, SI | 162-98 | 7 | Nate Davis, USAT | 287 | |
| 7 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 162-98 | 8 | M. Hoge | 286 | |
| 9 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 161-99 | 9 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 285 | |
| 9 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 161-99 | 10 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 283 | |
| 11 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 160-100 | 11 | D. Banks | 281 | |
| 11 | N. Davis | 160-100 | 11 | Adam Caplan, ESPN | 281 | |
| 11 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 160-100 | M | Mean Points | 279.6 | |
| 11 | K. Joyner | 160-100 | 13 | C. Carter | 278 | |
| M | Mean Record | 159.64-100.36 | 13 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 278 | |
| 15 | M. Irvin | 159-101 | 14 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 277 | |
| 15 | M. Schlereth | 159-101 | 16 | Pete Prisco, CBSS | 276 | |
| 17 | Football Outsiders | 157-103 | 17 | R. Jaworski | 275 | |
| 17 | P. Prisco | 157-103 | 17 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 275 | |
| 19 | A. Caplan | 156-104 | 17 | K. Warner | 275 | |
| 19 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 156-104 | 20 | M. Faulk | 274 | |
| 19 | S. Mariucci | 156-104 | 21 | FB Outsiders | 271 | |
| 22 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 155-105 | 22 | T. Jackson | 270 | |
| 22 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 155-105 | 23 | M. Ditka | 269 | |
| 24 | S. Wickersham | 153-107 | 24 | M. Golic | 263 | |
| 25 | Eric Allen, ESPN | 147-113 | 25 | E. Allen | 246 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors)
Vinnie Iyer now seems to be our biggest threat besides FiveThirtyEight. In the win-loss standings, Chris Mortensen and Jarrett Bell merely have an outside chance of surpassing us. As for the points standings, a one-game swing could be difference between first and sixth place, so we’re far from trouble-free in that area. Moving forward, we look at the Divisional Round. The tide has turned, as the home teams are now the early favorites. We’ll once again look to the Four Postseason Factors to determine if things pan out as expected.