After spending the week to preview the Four Postseason Factors and to use that information to analyze the 12 NFL playoff teams, we’ve finally reached the time to start giving our predictions. We will finally piece everything together from the Four Postseason Factors study for 2015 and put it into the context of each individual playoff match-up. Today, we focus on the final two games of Wild Card Weekend.
Note that our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value per week (27).
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t want the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 510 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we have just one more reminder of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
This weekend features three home underdogs, thanks to the disparity in starting quarterback experience. With A.J. McCarron getting the start in Cincinnati tonight, no home quarterback has started a previous playoff game. Meanwhile, the road quarterbacks have 37 previous postseason starts under their belt. Will the Four Postseason Factors prove that dynamic to be meaningless? Let’s find out!
(5) Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at (9) Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
It’s another year, and the Seahawks are once again red hot heading into the postseason. Seattle finished the season winning six of its final seven games, all the while outscoring its opponents 156-55 within the last five. In fact, the 2015 Seahawks are only the ninth team since 1987 to outscore its final five opponents by at least 100 points. The previous eight teams (1984 49ers, 1987 49ers, 1995 Lions, 1996 Packers, 1997 Chiefs, 2000 Ravens, 2010 Patriots and 2012 Seahawks) featured three Super Bowl champions and four one-and-done playoff teams. Only the previous Seahawks team (during Russell Wilson’s rookie season) suffered neither fate, so there’s a twist to the trend. Will the ‘Hawks break the chain once again, or will add them to the list of one-and-dones? Note that Minnesota will have to win a rematch of their 31-point home loss in Week 13 that kickstarted this Seattle run. Note that since 1990, teams that hosted a rematch of a non-divisional blowout loss (re: 20+ points) own a 5-1 record. The lone loss was suffered by the 2009 Bengals (see: Marvin Lewis’ 0-7 postseason record).
Seahawks balance: 7.6 pass O (6th), 7.6 run O (t-5th), 6.6 pass D (5th), 7.0 run D (t-5th), 4.2 scoring (1st), 5.5 tested (1st)
Vikings balance: 12.0 pass D (11th), 18.4 run D (19th), 22.4 pass O (t-23rd), 6.6 run O (3rd), 8.2 scoring (t-5th), 13.4 tested (t-10th)
We think the blue says it all. The Seahawks are an asset in all phases of the game, which pretty much automatically wins them this factor. To be honest, Seattle may be its most balanced ever, even more so than when winning Super Bowl XLVIII. We can move on now.
Coaching quality: Seahawks 6.75 average rank, Vikings 8.25 average rank
We had high ranks for Pete Carroll’s crew heading into last year’s postseason, but that awful play-call at the end of Super Bowl XLIX almost single-handedly caused us to reassess them. Meanwhile, Mike Zimmer and staff are rising the ranks, only needing more experience winning big games to work their way near the top. The biggest rank differential falls under the “motivation” category, and that’s perhaps the biggest area where Zimmer will undoubtedly improve with a greater sample size. Minnesota hasn’t won many big games yet, but Zimmer’s proven by getting the Vikings this far that he knows how to push the correct buttons even when the team needs to step it up. We say this factor is a push, given the close overall rank differential and the rising Zimmer stock.
TABRankings: Seahawks 407.62 points (Super Bowl contender), Vikings 330.56 points (Super Bowl pretender)
Chalk this up to another factor advantage for the Seahawks. Our conclusion to the third part of the study classified Seattle as a contender and Minnesota as a pretender. Furthermore, the Vikings deficits in several key efficiency stats (i.e.: Pythagorean win percentage, third-fourth down differential, Real Quarterback Rating Differential and Relative Scoring Average. Seattle is a road favorite for good reason.
Seahawks precedence: two red flags, no amber flags (six points, 22nd percentile)
Vikings precedence: two red flags, one amber flag (seven points, 15th percentile)
Seattle got its two red flags based on record. Its 2-4 start was one problem. The 3-3 record against NFC West opponents was the other. Meanwhile, Minnesota collected both of its red flags based on efficiency. Negative marks in Passer Rating Differential and Yards per Play Differential caused those flags to be assessed. Luckily, the amber flags were kept nearly to a minimum, as only Minnesota earned one. The Vikings were flagged for their worrisome point differential. These two teams push in the end, as both were considered fringe contender during our analysis for the fourth factor. The dynamic might be different, but the implications are similar.
Four Postseason Factors advantage breakdown: Seahawks 2, Vikings 0
We’re honestly grossed out to learn that nearly 95 percent of experts are picking the Seahawks to win, according to NFL Pickwatch. Worse yet, many of them are downright dismissing the Vikings. We only the due-earned respect given to Minnesota by a few, like Pete Prisco, who wrote: “The Seahawks blew out the Vikings in early December, but that was a banged-up Minnesota team. They played most of the game without some key defenders, including safety Harrison Smith and linebacker Anthony Barr. Russell Wilson carved them up that day, and he’s continued on a hot pace. But the Minnesota defense has the speed and the talent to be better this time.” That injury factor was largely ignored during the week’s analysis leading up to this game. Frankly, we only need to look at recent playoff history to know that the Vikings will give Seattle a very tough challenge. Prisco only fails in one way: he predicted a 27-23 win for Seattle. Given the ice cold forecast in Minnesota, as well as the Vikings’ style of play, we say this is a much lower-scoring one-possession win for the Seahawks. A late field goal will be the difference. Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 13, Minnesota Vikings 10
(10) Green Bay Packers (10-6) at (14) Washington Redskins (9-7)
We kicked off the 2015 season analysis by claiming Kirk Cousins wasn’t a good fit as Washington’s starter. We’ve since admitted we were wrong, after we watched Cousins play well down the stretch. In fact, Cousins put together one of the most impressive stretches in recent memory during the final six games of the season. He put together a streak of 6+ consecutive games with a 100+ passer rating for only the 21st time since 1960 (per Pro Football Reference). Some quarterbacks carried their respective streak into the postseason. Others needed some postseason games to get their respective streak to be so lengthy. Neither can predict what will happen for Cousins in his first postseason start. However, he may actually have the advantage on Aaron Rodgers. The latter has yet to post a 100+ passer rating in 10 games since Green Bay’s bye. Rodgers owns a meager 5.97 yards per pass attempt, which falls short of his 6.34 yards per rush attempt in that span. Can Washington keep up its winning ways?
Green Bay balance: 22.4 pass O (t-23rd), 16.0 run O (16th), 7.8 pass D (9th), 21.2 run D (21st), 14.8 scoring (13th), 9.4 tested (7th)
Washington balance: 21.0 pass D (22nd), 23.4 run D (24th), 5.4 pass O (3rd), 28.8 run O (30th), 9.6 scoring (7th), 24.2 tested (28th)
In short, our first factor suggests that Washington is almost guaranteed to not keep up its winning ways. Washington is a liability in four of six areas of the game. This includes having the third-worst rushing attack and the fifth-worst battle-tested team in the league. In fact, Washington is only the 12th team since 1978 to make the playoffs despite not winning a single game against a winning team. Only two of those teams (1982 Falcons and 1998 Cardinals) had fewer than or equal to Washington’s one win against a .500 team. (Note: Those Falcons played a nine-game season.) This doesn’t bode well for Washington, as six of those 11 teams went one-and-done. As for this factor, it confirms the advantage for Green Bay. Heck, Aaron Rodgers should even finally get that triple-digit passer rating.
Coaching quality: Green Bay 3.75 average rank, Washington 10.25 average rank
There is a straight sweep for this factor in favor of Green Bay, largely because McCarthy’s staff is much more established while having a similar dynamic. In fact, Green Bay owns at least a five-rank advantage in each of the four categories. Gruden’s strongest suit is play-calling — but so is McCarthy (despite the change of hands this season). In the end, there isn’t much more of Gruden to climb the ranks until he gets this big wins and cuts down on the sloppiness (re: penalties, turnovers and failed challenges).
TABRankings: Green Bay 324.63 points (Super Bowl pretender), Washington 267.87 points (Super Bowl pretender)
Neither team is a contender to win the Super Bowl by our standards. Therefore, we intend to consider the match-up a push for this factor. Note that Washington is closer to Green Bay than 16th-ranked Oakland. Furthermore, Washington actually owns a better Raw TABR (302.39 to 297.26) than Green Bay. See what that opponent adjustment can do? At least it doesn’t hurt Washington here.
Green Bay precedence: three red flags, two amber flags (11 points, 3rd percentile)
Washington precedence: five red flags, three amber flags (18 points, 1st percentile)
Much like with team balance, things don’t bode well for either team in playoff team precedence. We consider this factor a wash, though. Washington got flagged in eight of 13 categories, while Green Bay got flagged in five. Whether it’s problems record-wise (e.g.: Green Bay went 4-6 over its final 10 games, while Washington went 5-7 during its first 12) or efficiency problems (e.g.: both earned red flags for having a negative Yards per Play Differential), these teams are definite long shots at making the Super Bowl.
Four Postseason Factors advantage breakdown: Green Bay 2, Washington 0
This is the only game of the weekend in which the experts favor the home team, according to NFL Pickwatch. We think this has to do with the narrow-sighted discussion about the respective passing offenses. Truth is that the recent run of Cousins is about the only playoff-worthy argument going for Washington. Let’s briefly go back to the winless record against winning teams. The four teams of this subset that won in the playoffs (1998 Cardinals, 1999 Jaguars, 1999 Rams and 2011 Patriots) have different stories to tell. Just note that there were nine teams with a .500 record in 1999, as well as eight more such teams in 2011. Therefore, three of those teams are excused when we access “quality wins.” The 1998 Cardinals might be the most relevant comparison. They earned all nine of their regular season wins against double-digit loss teams, only to beat a familiar NFC East foe in the postseason. (Writer Adam Dobrowolski shudders as he remembers that Cowboys loss.) Washington doesn’t have such a luxury. The team is frankly outmatched, even by a Packers team that is one of the three least-qualified teams in this postseason. Prediction: Green Bay Packers 27, Washington Redskins 17