Writer Adam Dobrowolski is at Kutztown University Homecoming this weekend, so there will be no commentary beyond the game-by-game pick rationale. Just note that most of these picks fit the expert consensus.
The predictions involve the “straight-up” choice, meaning that no spread will be considered. Meanwhile, there will also be a points system used to put some emphasis on correctly predicting the tough games. Using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other, unless both teams are within top 12. (Theoretically, 1 v. 12 is a playoff-quality match-up.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Note that we’re only looking at 2015 data from now on to make our picks. Our 2015 NFL Season Predictions made back in August no longer have any say in these picks. Check out our picks below, along with our submission to NFL Pickwatch.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(4) New York Jets (4-1) at (1) New England Patriots (5-0)
At the end of the day, as much as the Jets are currently impressing us, it all comes down to the match-up between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady. New York would have to completely handcuff the flow of this game to limit Brady’s opportunity. Also, the Jets would need to win the turnover battle. The problem is Fitzpatrick has a knack for getting a bit wreckless at times, which leads to the potential for interceptions. As that comes into play, we have no choice but to pick the Patriots to remain undefeated.
(11) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at (6) Carolina Panthers (5-0)
We expect this one to be a defensive struggle. Josh Norman and the Carolina pass defense should limit the Philly receivers, which will only make matters tougher for an offense that’s still struggling to establish a rhythm. Meanwhile, we’re not convinced Cam Newton has improved enough to get past a strong Eagles defense. Most experts are picking the Panthers at home, but we think the disparity of picks is quite misleading. This will be a closer game than the consensus percentage will suggest. However, we will join the pack in picking the Panthers. There just isn’t a convincing enough argument for us to go against the grain in this GotW.
Non-GotW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(16) Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at (27) San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
We correctly predicted this match-up for Thursday Night Football.
(13) Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at (30) Detroit Lions (1-5)
On the plus side for the Vikings, they lead the league with 21.19 Yards per Point Allowed and rank in the top five in Relative Scoring Defense. On the down side, they also rank last in Net Yards per Dropback and last in Relative Scoring Offense. It seems like the Mainstream Sports Media isn’t focusing much on this dynamic because the team is one of the few who have actually worked through its problems to get a winning record. As this applies to Detroit, it means we don’t think the Vikings will exploit Detroit’s poor defensive play as much as they could. Ultimately, our pick comes down to the quarterback battle, and we trust Teddy Bridgewater over Matt Stafford.
(21) Oakland Raiders (2-3) at (18) San Diego Chargers (2-4)
The Chargers and Raiders both are in a tricky spot. Both teams own a pair of losses to 6-0 teams. Both teams let one late lead get away. For all intents and purposes, either team could make a run if the cards fall favorably. For what it’s worth, these two teams are generally evenly matched, save for two areas. San Diego owns the clear quarterback advantage, but that is in part negated by the team’s horrific negative-5.90 Net Yards per Point Scored. Imagine where the Chargers could be if they were handling their business on the scoreboard. We see some eventually regression for San Diego, so why not start now? Urgency is the key for the home team.
(15) Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at (12) New York Giants (3-3)
The Cowboys are honestly one of the toughest teams to figure out for Week 7. The quarterback change from Brandon Weeden to Matt Cassel isn’t a huge step forward in efficiency, but it leaves the potential for different looks on offense. Meanwhile, the defense has only one-game sample size with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain on the field. This comes at a time for a must-win game. Sure, the Giants are coming off an embarrassment that in the same spot set them up for a horrid close to the 2014 season, but at least they’re save at quarterback. Dallas has to play Seattle and Philadelphia during the next two weeks without Tony Romo. A loss here could very much mean a possible 2-6 start. We give the Cowboys a similar tag we gave to the Dolphins last week. Let’s the ‘Boys prove us right.
The Rest (1 point each)
(10) Buffalo Bills (3-3) v. (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London, England
The Bills will have to start E.J. Manuel for a second consecutive game, which could make this game a close one. However, the Jaguars are ill fit to fully take advantage of the missing elements of the Buffalo offense. Meanwhile, despite the Bills struggling to figure out its front seven situation under new head coach Rex Ryan, the secondary is playing more than well enough to give Blake Bortles some problems. As a result, we’ll go along with the majority and claim that the Bills win in London.
(20) New Orleans Saints (2-4) at (19) Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
For a change, Andrew Luck looked lively in a loss. Meanwhile, the Saints are also starting to eventually get better offensively as Drew Brees improves his health. As we look at this match-up, this is the ultimate crossroads game for the Saints. They have a chance to prove they are over their early season swoon. Then again, a loss would mean that their chances of making the playoffs are virtually no more. In the end, we’ll pick the Colts because our confidence in the Saints is burned by their recent failures.
(9) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at (25) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) **Upset of the Week**
Sure, the Steelers got a huge win against Arizona last week, in which they used third-stringer Landry Jones to pull off comeback. However, leave it to the Mike Tomlin Era Steelers to lose a game or two they totally should win. Remember, this is almost the same team that lost to the Buccaneers (2-14) at home and Jets (4-12) on the road last year. In total, the 2014 Steelers (11-5) lost four times to losing teams. The 2009 Steelers (9-7) also lost four such games, while the 2007 Steelers (10-6) lost three. Since 2007, Pittsburgh has most losses against losing teams (12) when finishing with a winning record. With a home battle against the 6-0 Bengals looming, we smell this one being a trap game for the Steelers. Jones won’t be as much of a surprise this week, so the Chiefs avoid the 1-6 start.
(23) Houston Texans (2-4) at (24) Miami Dolphins (2-3)
We have only a one-game sample size for the Dan Campbell Era Dolphins, so we certainly don’t know for sure if this sudden turnaround is for real. Odds are that Miami used their two weeks of change to come back firing in Tennessee. Naturally, this game won’t have the same juice. This likely make this an even match-up between two poor teams. This is a game we think the Mainstream Sports Media favors too much (there’s nearly a 9:1 edge in favor of Miami from the experts, according to NFL Pickwatch), but it’s not really one we see the Texans definitely proving all the doubters wrong. We’ll give an oh-so-slight edge to the Dolphins.
(22) Cleveland Browns (2-4) at (14) St. Louis Rams (2-3)
We see a similar dynamic for the Browns compared to last week. They have an offense is moving the football surprisingly well, but it’s also struggled at times with negative plays. That fits well for a dangerous Rams front seven. However, St. Louis struggles to outgun teams on the scoreboard, which creates a penchant for upsets on the both sides (re: winning and losing in upset fashion for the Rams). We tried to trust Josh McCown and the Browns once, but totally flubbed in overtime last week. Seriously, they intercept the ball in Denver territory, only to go backwards and relegate themselves to a three-and-out on the next drive. We’re not trying them again.
(8) Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at (29) Tennessee Titans (1-4) **Lock of the Week**
The Titans are forced to start Zach Mettenberger, which suddenly limits the upper (and lower) bound of the Tennessee offense. While the Falcons aren’t exactly dominating, they are capable of moving the ball on any defense. Combine those two factors, and we have a match-up that the Falcons should win without the need of a fourth-quarter comeback.
(28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at (17) Washington Redskins (2-4)
We could very easily mock Washington for the predictable outcome of this Kirk Cousins project. However, the truth is that this team could very well be leading the NFC East if Colt McCoy or Robert Griffin got the starting nod at the beginning of 2015. Not only is Cousins struggling with interceptions, but he’s led his team to rank last in yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, the running game and defense plays relatively fair. At least Washington is winning at home, so we’ll take them this week.
(26) Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at (7) Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
It’s hard to fathom that the Ravens will start 1-6, but we see that way. Frankly, the Baltimore pass defense is just awful, and the Cardinals are well equipped to take serious advantage of that. Furthermore, with the Big Red crowd getting active for Monday Night Football, it could ignite some big plays in favor of the home team. We have enough respect for the struggling Ravens to keep the “lock” label away from this one, but there’s a convincing argument that the Cardinals win without much resistance.
Bye teams: (2) Cincinnati Bengals (6-0), (3) Green Bay Packers (6-0), (5) Denver Broncos (6-0), (31) Chicago Bears (2-4)
