When Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone during the Dallas Cowboys victory in Week 2, it was a great letdown for a team that had great potential to contender for Super Bowl 50. Not only did Romo lead a balanced offense with great efficiency, but the defense forced three turnover while dominating the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since then, the Cowboys now have lost all four starts without Romo, dropping to a disappointing 2-4 in the process. Most will put this simply on the injury factor, as Romo and lead wide receiver Dez Bryant headline the list of players missing games during this four-game losing streak. However, as yesterday’s loss on the road against the New York Giants shows, the problems go beyond the quarterback situation. The defense is falling short as well, despite improvements in efficiency, primarily because the unit is struggling to force turnovers. As you’ll see, this problem is an outlier that cost the Cowboys several chances of winning without Romo.
The Cowboys allowed a rushing touchdown to Giants running back Orleans Darkwa. (photo rights to Chris Faytok / NJ Advance Media)
ROLE REVERSAL: COWBOYS FROM FIRST TO WORST IN TAKEAWAY PERCENTAGE
If you were to look at the box score from yesterday’s game, you could see several areas in which the Cowboys thrived more than well enough to defeat the Giants. They lead the yardage battle, 460-289, and first down battle, 27-13. This includes a near symmetrical balance of 233 rush yards and 227 pass yards. Dallas also held a 13-10 haltime lead, giving the team a halftime lead for the third time during this current losing streak. However, the team imploded with four turnovers and a kick return touchdown allowed in the second half. It was honestly a wonder that the Cowboys only lost by seven points, but it speaks to where this can be if it wins the turnover battle.
That’s where the problem lays: the Cowboys don’t have a single takeaway since Week 2. Stew on that for a bit. Here’s a team that loses its star quarterback, but the defense cannot force one turnover throughout the next four games. They couldn’t get one while being outscored 22-0 in the second half at home against Atlanta. They couldn’t get one while fighting to overtime in New Orleans. And they couldn’t get one to swing momentum back in the team’s favor yesterday afternoon.
On average, the Cowboys outgained the Giants 6.67 to 5.67 per play, meaning they gained an extra yard for each snap. That was quickly negated by losing the turnover battle, 4-0, all of which happened in the second half. There are reasons why Dallas was outscored 75-20 over the last four games, and the inability for the defense to provide good field position for a limited and injury-riddled offense is definitely a major one. It feels like this team trying to hold on, but falls apart late week after week.
What’s most astounding about this is that the Cowboys ranked first last season in takeaway percentage, based on drive stats. In 179 drives faced last season, the defense forced 30 of the team’s 31 takeaways. That lead to a league-best 16.76 drive-based takeaway percentage. Dallas also forced a turnover in each its final 15 regular season games. We projected regression for the Cowboys for 2015 in this area, but little did we expect the dynamic to change this much.
In 2015, the Cowboys have a league-low three takeaways in 66 drives, leading to a league-low 4.55 drive-based takeaway percentage. Furthermore, the team failed to force a turnover in five of its six games. That puts the team in rare company.
Table 1: Most Games with No Takeaways (Games 1-6; since 1940)
| Team | Count | Start | Finish | Team | Count | Start | Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Cowboys | 5 | 2-4 (-9) | TBD | 2004 Cowboys | 4 | 2-4 (-5) | 6-10 (-15) | |
| 2013 Steelers | 5 | 2-4 (-10) | 8-8 (-4) | 2004 Rams | 4 | 4-2 (-5) | 8-8 (-24) | |
| 2015 Jaguars | 4 | 1-5 (-6) | TBD | 2002 Bills | 4 | 3-3 (-5) | 8-8 (-12) | |
| 2014 Chiefs | 4 | 3-3 (-2) | 9-7 (-3) | 2001 Bills | 4 | 1-5 (-8) | 3-13 (-14) | |
| 2014 Jaguars | 4 | 0-6 (-8) | 3-13 (-6) | 1996 Ravens | 4 | 2-4 (-5) | 4-12 (-11) | |
| 2013 Jets | 4 | 3-3 (-11) | 8-8 (-14) | 1994 Lions | 4 | 2-4 (-3) | 9-7 (-1) | |
| 2013 Texans | 4 | 2-4 (-12) | 2-14 (-20) | 1990 Dolphins | 4 | 5-1 (-8) | 12-4 (E) | |
| 2011 Steelers | 4 | 4-2 (-10) | 12-4 (-13) | 1980 49ers | 4 | 3-13 (-15) | 6-10 (-6) | |
| 2005 ‘Skins | 4 | 4-2 (-6) | 10-6 (+1) | 1979 Broncos | 4 | 4-2 (-3) | 10-6 (-3) | |
| 2005 Texans | 4 | 0-6 (-7) | 2-14 (-8) |
Source: Pro Football Reference’s Team Game Finder
Yesterday, the Jaguars were one to show what can happen if a team can get some mid-season takeaway regression. They won the turnover battle over the Bills, 4-1, including scoring touchdowns on a fumble return and an interception return. That lead to a 34-31 victory in London. However, that one game pales in comparison to the precedent set forth from previous years. ALL double-digit winning teams already owned a winning record by six games, so the Cowboys may very well be limited to the race for the NFC East championship. The good news, though, is that only two teams (both in 2004) failed to regress in turnover margin per game.
As it pertains to the 2015 Cowboys, maybe return of Tony Romo will help, but the team needs to survive three more games without Romo. When he returns, the most comparable situations would be to the 2005 Patriots (three takeaways in first six games; started 3-3 and finished 10-6), 2013 Chargers (three takeaways; started 3-3, finished 9-7) and 2013 Steelers (two; started 2-4, finished 8-8). Those three teams had strong offenses led by great quarterbacks. However, because of those three games sans Romo, the Cowboys will need heavier turnover regression than the rest. Unless the Dallas defense immediately starts to make big plays, the season will soon be over.