After spending the week to preview the Four Postseason Factors and to use that information to analyze the 12 NFL playoff teams, we’ve finally reached the time to start giving our predictions. We will finally piece everything together from the Four Postseason Factors Preview and put it into the context of each individual playoff match-up. Today, we focus on the final two games of the Wild Card Weekend. The match-ups feature two teams on a playoff drought looking to end their misery with a road playoff win.
Remember, our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value (26.29) per week.
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 525 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we have just one more reminder of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
Now, let’s get to the games!
(10) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at (5) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Another year, another playoff appearance for the Bengals. Could it mean another one-and-done for them as well? With a playoff loss today, Andy Dalton joins Y.A. Tittle as the only two quarterbacks to start 0-4 in the postseason. Tittle finished his career with the same record, but teams didn’t have as many playoff opportunity back in his day. Then again, many people will continue to call for Dalton’s job if he can’t get this win. We don’t think that’s fair. The 0-3 record isn’t the problem, as two losses came in Houston against a superior Texans team. The problem is instead his poor numbers in the playoffs and other big spots in the regular season. Still, Cincinnati would need to find a better quarterback before making that switch. The Bengals, though, hope to make the whole discussion moot. They will have a tall task after losing 27-0 in Indy earlier this season.
Bengals team balance: 18.2 pass O, 8.4 rush O, 12.0 pass D, 24.1 rush D, 10.8 scoring, 11.7 battle-tested
Colts team balance: 10.8 pass D, 19.0 rush D, 7.0 pass O, 24.0 rush O, 11.4 scoring, 11.4 battle-tested
Looking at the unit match-ups, we can see how the game-changing moments will likely come when the Bengals have the football. The Indianapolis secondary is playing like one of the best in the league, but the front seven struggles to hold at the point of attack. This limits passing opportunities for Dalton and crew, which won’t have the services of A.J. Green, but potentially opens up lane for big gains on the ground. Without Green, can Indianapolis cover one-on-one out wide and focus its attention on the run? Ultimately, context might matter the most here. Not only do the Bengals struggle offensively in big games, but the Colts thrive defensively at home. We see an awakening for the front seven on the Lucas Oil Stadium turf. Thus, we give the advantage to Indianapolis for team balance.
Coaching quality: Colts 6.00 average rank, Bengals 9.75 average rank
In a short time with the Colts, Chuck Pagano’s crew instilled some great discipline. Pagano also does a great job of motivating his team. These two factors help the team to go 11-5 in the past three season despite having some serious roster issues amid a rebuilding movement. It’s more than Andrew Luck helping this franchise to win. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis took a hit by losing both his offensive and defensive coordinator after last season’s wild card loss. He somehow kept the franchise’s stability this season, which he speaks to the system he’s established. Still, there are serious issues about his ability to motivate in big game and handle the tough playoff situations. We’ve seen more from Pagano in shorter time. Thus, we give the advantage to Indianapolis for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Colts 346.74 points, Bengals 301.87 points
Indianapolis owns a considerable advantage in Raw TABR, but the opponent adjustments make this much closer to a fair fight. The Colts played five games against teams with a negative Raw TABR. Meanwhile, the Bengals only played two such games. Cincinnati might be five spots away from the home team, but it’s not by a large margin. The Bengals are closer to the Colts than the 16th-ranked team, which is what should be expected. No advantage will be given for the TABRankings.
Bengals playoff team precedence: four red flags, one amber flag (13 points, 1st percentile)
Colts playoff team precedence: one red flag, two amber flags (five points, 30th percentile)
While the Colts are a fringe Super Bowl contender, the Bengals are an unlikely Super Bowl contender. Once again, the team’s problem in big games comes back to haunt them. Dalton’s 0-3 playoff record has the same effect as four blowout losses, a plus-1.3 average scoring margin and a 3-3 record against the AFC North. Those red flags make the Bengals quite simply a team that doesn’t fit the making of a normal Super Bowl team. Indianapolis got a red flag for its 0-2 start, but that is attributed to two one-possession losses against quality teams. The Colts can worry about those issues at a later date. We give the advantage to Indianapolis for playoff team precedence.
According to the Four Postseason Factors, this game has a clear and firm favorite. Indianapolis plays well defensively at home. It also can dominate offensively when Andrew Luck avoid the turnover bug. Without A.J. Green on the field for the Bengals, the Colts can focus more numbers on stopping the Bengals rush attack. That will help the Colts to cruise to a multiple-possession victory and put Andy Dalton into Tittle territory for playoff futility. Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 31, Cincinnati Bengals 14
(9) Detroit Lions (11-5) at (8) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
If it seemed like the Bengals were having a tough go with the playoffs, it pales into comparison to the what the Lions faced over the past half-decade plus. As we mentioned before the Week 17 games, Detroit has history strongly going against their playoff hopes, which made the Lions the team with the most to prove. Detroit failed at its first step, losing in Green Bay to drop to the NFC’s sixth seed. Matt Stafford dropped to 0-17 on the road against teams that finished with a winning record, remaining behind quarterbacks like Stephen McGee (one career start) and Joe Webb (four career starts). Meanwhile, the Lions franchise owns a nine-game road losing streak, with the last such victory coming in the 1957 NFL playoff game famous for a historic comeback. Detroit hopes those terrors ends against Dallas. The Lions beat Cowboys in 1991 for its only playoff win since 1957.
Lions team balance: 19.4 pass O, 26.3 rush O, 11.6 pass D, 2.2 rush D, 17.8 scoring, 18.2 battle-tested
Cowboys team balance: 21.2 pass D, 22.6 rush D, 5.0 pass O, 8.2 rush O, 10.0 scoring, 10.6 battle-tested
Stafford owns two very memorable fourth-quarter comeback victories in last the two meetings between the two teams (in 2011 and 2013). However, that Stafford is not this year’s Stafford. This year’s Stafford does not show as much firepower. In fact, the Lions averaged 13.6 points per game in five meetings against teams with a winning record. Although Dallas has some serious defensive concerns, we don’t think Detroit can take advantage on this. The Lions scored more than 24 points only three times this season. On the flip side, the Cowboys offensive firepower will be limited by this playoff-caliber Lions defense. With Ndamukong Suh’s successful appeal to play today, the Lions have new life to remain dominant and stop DeMarco Murray and the Dallas rush attack. That puts the ball in Romo’s hands. Our numbers say he will more often succeed than fail, but avoid big mistakes will be key. The scoring efficiency and battle-tested quality play suggest that Romo should be able to avoid those big mistakes. Thus, we give the advantage to Dallas for team balance.
Coaching quality: Lions 9.00 average rank, Cowboys 10.88 average rank
It’s hard to discern the impact Jim Caldwell played for the Colts as head coach from 2009 to 2011. He didn’t make or break that franchise’s fortunes, but they chose to move on from him. Caldwell then helped the Ravens to win a Super Bowl in 2012 after replacing Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator. Now in Detroit, Caldwell is still better discipline, but it’s still a work in progress. Meanwhile, the Cowboys coaching staff is considered the worst of the 12 in this postseason, but those grades have more to do the job done in previous years. This year seems to be a breakout year for Jason Garrett’s staff, as the Cowboys are committed to balanced and mentally-tough play. We’re still learning to trust this staff, but they at least build the case for a draw. No advantage will be given for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Cowboys 329.07 points, Lions 313.03 points
A late December surge allowed the Cowboys to move ahead of the Lions, but the opponent adjustments make this advantage quite slim. Dallas faced the second-worst schedule according to the rankings and lost nearly 55 points in the process. Detroit didn’t exactly face a much tougher schedule, but it at least falls in line with most teams in the league. We won’t split any more hairs, as these two teams are ranked next to each other in the regular season rankings. No advantage will be given for the TABRankings.
Lions playoff team precedence: one red flag, four amber flags (seven points, 16th percentile)
Cowboys playoff team precedence: one red flag (three points, 47th percentile)
The Cowboys are considered one of five true Super Bowl contenders, according to our Super Bowl Super Study. The team’s lone red-flag flaw was having a 4-4 record. However, if you take out the game Tony Romo missed, the Cowboys would be 4-3 at home and have no points in the study. On the flip side, the Lions are considered a fringe Super Bowl contender. The team owns a 1-4 record against playoff team, which draws a red flag. Furthermore, the team averaged just 12.2 points per game in those five meetings. Also note that Detroit went 4-4 on the road, so that amber flag is equal to the Dallas red flag when put into context. The other amber flags were given in part because Detroit lacked strong efficiency in differential stats and lacked the ability to dominate inferior opponents. The extra firepower can go a long way for the Cowboys, especially in this atmosphere, so we give the advantage to Dallas for playoff team precedence.
According to the Four Postseason Factors, the Cowboys are more balanced team that better fits the precedent-based normality of a Super Bowl team. Quite simply, they are better equipped to overcome the postseason struggles they see. And trust us, both teams will have their share of recent demons to overcome. Sure, Matt Stafford’s two best comebacks came against the Cowboys, but it wasn’t in this spot. Until Stafford proves to be a winner on the road, and until the Lions prove to have the offensive firepower to beat a great team on the road, they shouldn’t be anybody’s choice to win a road playoff game. Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 24, Detroit Lions 17