What a week. Just like last year, our Week 2 predictions shined to put us in a sterling position for the rest of the year. For the second consecutive year, we are rewarded for sticking with our preseason picks, instead of overreacting to Week 1 outcomes. Last year, we started 26-6 after going 14-2 in Week 2. This year, we finished just one game weaker through the first two weeks. Strangely, our lone amendment is what cost us that one-game drop. That outcome didn’t come without controversy.
In an ending that screams “crock” without any party doing something particularly wrong, the Buccaneers had a shot at their game-winning field goal taken away. Down to the final 20 seconds or so, Josh McCown completed a pass to Mike Evans at around the St. Louis 33-yard line. Evans took a hard hit and couldn’t get up after the play. Referees called a stoppage with eight seconds left, and the Buccaneers had no timeouts left. This requires a 10-second run off which ended the game. There are many questions that personally followed:
- Evans first took the hit with around 15 seconds left, according to FOX’s game clock. Then Evans tried to get up, but waved for help with about 12 seconds left. A whistle with 11 seconds left. Was the FOX time clock off the mark?
- Did the hit warrant a penalty? (This provides the clearest of answers. Rams safety T.J. McDonald hit with his shoulder.)
- Should teammates have helped up Evans, or could Evans get up on his own power if everybody had waited a few more seconds?
- Should the training staff have waited for the next play to happen, or would be too negligent to wait?
- Should referees have stopped the play earlier, or did they wait sufficiently for confirmation that Evans was injured?
- Would Patrick Murray, who had an earlier field goal blocked, have successfully kicked the field goal?
It’s honestly one of the most anticlimactic endings in recent history. That’s just a really awful way to end the game, but rules are rules. Looks like we needed to stick with the original pick. Of course, if the Buccaneers didn’t blow a fourth-quarter lead, this would all be moot.
In fact, just by looking at the seven losses in the Pick’em so far, the blown lead is a common theme. Here’s what the seven losses so far involve: blown fourth-quarter lead (double digits), blown second-half lead (double digits), blown fourth-quarter lead, overtime loss, blown fourth-quarter lead, blown fourth-quarter lead and blown fourth-quarter lead. If you’re going to make incorrect picks, at least have those losses be close games that have the “what if” nature of a game that could’ve gone either way.
Of course, after a 13-3 showing, we don’t have many worries or complaints. The rest of the experts overreacted to Week 1 outcomes. It set up several consensus picks that were a rush to judgment too early in the season. This includes:
- Lions over Panthers: The Lions didn’t look as good as much as the Giants looked bad in Week 1.
- Steelers over Ravens: No way the Ravens were starting 0-2 at home in the division.
- Titans over Cowboys: Jake Locker’s Week 1 performance wasn’t enough to guarantee a throttling of Big D.
- 49ers over Bears: The 49ers weren’t tested in Week 1, so evidence lacked to overshadow the HFO issues in their new digs.
Add in this publication’s well-placed prediction of a Chargers win over the Seahawks, and this week was actually more of a winner than last year’s Week 2 performance. No other expert finished better than 10-6 in Week 2 (per Pickwatch). Yet, we finished 13-3. Better yet, with the Eagles’ comeback on MNF, we get the three points to equal out the devastating Chargers loss in Arizona from Week 1.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(14) Detroit Lions (1-0) at (4) Carolina Panthers (1-0)
(1) Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at (10) San Diego Chargers (0-1)
(12) Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at (3) Denver Broncos (1-0)
(6) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at (11) Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(16) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at (26) Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
(15) Miami Dolphins (1-0) at (17) Buffalo Bills (1-0)
The Rest (1 point each)
(30) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at (32) Washington Redskins (0-1)
(24) Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at (13) Tennessee Titans (1-0)
(9) Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at (28) New York Giants (0-1)
(8) New England Patriots (0-1) at (19) Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
(5) New Orleans Saints (0-1) at (31) Cleveland Browns (0-1)
(23) Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at (7) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)
(18) St. Louis Rams (0-1) at (27) Tampa Bay Buccaners (0-1) **Amendment**
(25) Houston Texans (1-0) at (29) Oakland Raiders (0-1)
(21) New York Jets (1-0) at (20) Green Bay Packers (0-1) **Lock of the Week**
(22) Chicago Bears (0-1) at (2) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) **Upset of the Week**
Winner, winner, football Pick’em dinner. Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 13-3 and 23 points
- Overall record and points: 25-7 and 42 points (78.13 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 4-0 this week (6-1 overall… 85.71 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 3-0 this week (6-2 overall… 75 win percentage) [includes 1-0 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 2-0 overall (41 ranking points… 100 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 2-0 overall (current streak: Jets and Packers… best streak: two weeks)
Now for the competition. I wanted this to be a 1 v. 25 battle, so I selected experts from several different publications. However, it seems like Michael Robinson of NFL Network’s Gameday First made his predictions for a one-week deal. Now, it’s one writer v. 24 experts.
Experts from a few different publications will compete. One publication that provides a litmus test is Football Outsiders, so Aaron Schatz picks are included here. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 25-7 | 1 | TABM | 42 | |
| 2 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 21-11 | 2 | Jackson | 35 | |
| 3 | Don Banks, SI | 20-12 | 3 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 34 | |
| 3 | Joyner | 20-12 | 4 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 33 | |
| 5 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 19-13 | 5 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 32 | |
| 5 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 19-13 | 6 | Banks | 31 | |
| 5 | Prisco | 19-13 | 6 | Irvin | 31 | |
| 5 | Sapp | 19-13 | 6 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 31 | |
| 9 | Football Outsiders | 18-14 | 9 | FO | 29 | |
| 9 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 18-14 | 10 | Allen | 28 | |
| 9 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 18-14 | 10 | Jaworski | 28 | |
| M | Mean Record | 17.48-14.52 | 10 | Warner | 28 | |
| 12 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 17-15 | 10 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 28 | |
| 12 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 17-15 | M | Mean Points | 27.76 | |
| 12 | Melissa Stark, NFLN | 17-15 | 14 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 26 | |
| 12 | Faulk | 17-15 | 15 | Carter | 25 | |
| 16 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 16-16 | 15 | Ditka | 25 | |
| 16 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 16-16 | 15 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 25 | |
| 16 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 16-16 | 18 | Golic | 24 | |
| 16 | Sharpe | 16-16 | 18 | O’Hara | 24 | |
| 16 | Wickersham | 16-16 | 18 | Stark | 24 | |
| 21 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 15-17 | 21 | Hoge | 23 | |
| 21 | Johnson | 15-17 | 21 | Mariucci | 23 | |
| 21 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 15-17 | 23 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 22 | |
| 24 | Schefter | 14-18 | 23 | Schlereth | 22 | |
| 24 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 14-18 | 25 | Mortensen | 21 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Last year, I beat a list of 92 experts and a coin toss to win the NFL Pick’em crown, according to NFL Pickwatch. This year, I’m off to an awesome start, as the best expert is already three games behind me through two weeks. I’ll look to continue the momentum in Week 3.
Until then…