Today concludes what many believe to be the best weekend of the NFL season. In 2014, we have the top four ranked teams in the TABRankings have home field for the four respective games. These games own a combined 30-2 record at their respective home fields. One of those losses came when the New England Patriots rested their starters in Week 17 after clinching AFC home-field advantage. The other loss was the Seattle Seahawks loss suffered against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
Yesterday, the Patriots overcame two separate 14-point leads to eek out a four-point victory at home. Then, the Seahawks won 31-17 against the Panthers despite failing to get the run game going the way they most of the year. Now, with two undefeated teams at home (Packers and Broncos) hosting the Sunday playoff games, does that mean we see all four home teams win in the Divisional Round for the first time since 2004? Let’s find out.
Remember, our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value (26.29) per week.
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 525 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we must remind you of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
Now, let’s get to the games!
(6) Dallas Cowboys (12-4 + 1-0) at (3) Green Bay Packers (12-4 + 0-0)
When you put together the top two teams in our NFL franchise rankings and place them in a playoff match-up, odds are the media is going to run with the narrative of these two franchises. With this game having the Lambeau Field backdrop, it’s natural for the media to focus on the Ice Bowl. That’s the last playoff game played between these two teams at Lambeau. However, another playoff game comes to mind as well for this match-up. With the Cowboys (8-0 on the road) and Packers (8-0 at home) undefeated in this respective situations, it marks the first playoff game with an undefeated road team facing an undefeated home team since the 1972 AFC Championship Game. The Dolphins ended up winning in Pittsburgh en route to the lone perfect season in the Super Bowl era. Could the Cowboys continue that road magic for will be a cold Sunday in Wisconsin?
Cowboys team balance: 5.0 pass O, 8.2 rush O, 21.2 pass D, 22.6 rush D, 10.0 scoring, 10.6 battle-tested
Packers team balance: 10.6 pass D, 21.5 rush D, 4.2 pass O, 6.4 rush O, 10.8 scoring, 11.4 battle-tested
Just by simply looking at the unit match-ups, we can see how this clash will be an even one. Dallas should be able to control the flow of the game when its on offense, especially with the run game in these elements. The Cowboys would be best served mixing in Joseph Randle to complement DeMarco Murray, as it may keep the Packers just that more off balance defending the run. The only question on offense is how Tony Romo will handle the elements. Some were critical of his early play last week, but Romo admitted in his postgame press conference to throwing several passes short to avoid a turnover when the Cowboys were down by multiple possessions. He must avoid turnovers, but be able to move the chains as well, because the defense is ill-equipped to even slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. Of course, the question for the Green Bay offense is how well it runs with Rodgers’ calf injury. This is a muscular injury that’s affected by cold weather. We assume Romo and Rodgers will be fine. No advantage will be given for team balance.
Coaching quality: Packers 4.50 average rank, Cowboys 10.88 average rank
Mike McCarthy’s crew grades all around better than Jason Garrett’s crew. As mentioned last week, the Dallas coaching staff is having a breakout year working together, but the staff has yet to instill the discipline the Packers have under McCarthy. For that reason, we think the Packers are still a step better than the Cowboys in this area, thus we give the advantage to Green Bay for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Packers 496.96 points, Cowboys 394.54 points
For the Cowboys, their opponent adjustment prevents them from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Dallas ranks fifth in Raw TABR, only having 13.41 points fewer than the Seattle Seahawks. However, they achieved that against the second-weakest schedule in the league. Green Bay actually faced the fourth-weakest schedule, but the team owns the best Raw TABR in the league. Even with the opponent adjustment, the Packers remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We give the advantage to Green Bay for the TABRankings.
Cowboys playoff team precedence: one red flag (three points, 47th percentile)
Packers playoff team precedence: two amber flags (two points, 56th percentile)
The Cowboys are 4-4 at home (red flag), while the Packers are 4-4 on the road (amber flag). Both shortcomings do not apply to this match-up. All that leaves is one flaw by the Packers to discuss. That involves two blowout losses, both of which were on the road (Week 1 at Seattle and Week 8 at New Orleans). Given how well Green Bay played at home in the regular season, we feel the blowout losses do not apply either. We pretty much consider this to be a clean sheet in this context. No advantage will be given for playoff team precedence.
This match-up reminds us of the Ravens-Patriots match-up in that the underdog found a way to stay even with the favorite for two of the factors, but failed to actually carry a distinct advantage. Honestly, the Packers are more likely to dominate offensively than the Cowboys, so even the team balance could become a problem for Dallas. The Cowboys can pull off the upset if they control the clock through Murray and the offensive line dominating the run game and limit Rodgers’ ability to scramble on that balky calf. Problem is that there’s no focal point that actually puts the power in Dallas’ court, unless Rodgers somehow is significantly less than 100 percent. If Rodgers is too hurt to run the offense at desired efficiency, then we can get the upset. Prediction: Green Bay Packers 34, Dallas Cowboys 28
(5) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 + 1-0) at (2) Denver Broncos (12-4 + 0-0)
The Manning-Luck narrative continues, as these two teams face in a re-match of the Week 1 Denver victory. In that game, Denver built a huge lead before hanging on to win by seven points. Honestly, despite being dominated for about half of the game, it’s the best an Indianapolis defense held up against an elite offense. That dynamic must change in order for the Colts to get an upset. If the Colts play fairly well on defense, though, there’s a chance for Andrew Luck to outgun Peyton Manning. Luck has clearly been the more dynamic-throwing quarterback over the past two months or so. Could that mean the Colts have the ingredients for an upset? Or is there more to this match-up than the Manning-Luck dynamic?
Colts team balance: 7.0 pass O, 24.0 rush O, 10.8 pass D, 19.0 rush D, 11.4 scoring, 11.4 battle-tested
Broncos team balance: 9.2 pass D, 5.4 rush D, 4.0 pass O, 10.6 rush O, 11.6 scoring, 5.4 battle-tested
Looking at the unit match-ups, we quickly see there will be more this game than just the Manning-Luck dynamic. It looks like the Broncos should be able to control the play at the trenches. The Denver rushing offense surged late in the season, especially with C.J. Anderson running the football. Expect the Broncos to run well against a mediocre Indianapolis run defense that doesn’t play as fast outside in the elements. Meanwhile, the poor Indianapolis rush offense will render that offense one-dimensional, and Denver cornerback Chris Harris Jr. will be well-equipped to limit the passing options for the Colts. If that’s not bad enough for Indianapolis, the visitors face a team well-versed to handle these tough match-ups. For a few reasons, we give the advantage to Denver for team balance.
Coaching quality: Broncos 5.50 average rank, Colts 6.00 average rank
These two coaching staffs are quite strong, and they put up nearly identical numbers on average. Looking at it in more detail, Chuck Pagano’s staff built a more-disciplined Colts team than John Fox’s staff for the Broncos, as the latter team struggles with penalties. We also see Pagano as a better motivator than Fox. However, Fox’s staff handles playcalling notably better and also has much more playoff experience and success. No advantage will be given for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Broncos 497.22 points, Colts 452.23 points
After a win last week against Cincinnati, the Colts now have enough points in true TABR to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. In fact, Indianapolis is the only road team this weekend that can lay claim to legitimate contendership, according to the rankings. This could be a huge development. No advantage will be given for TABRankings.
Colts playoff team precedence: one red flag, two amber flags (five points, 30th percentile)
Broncos playoff team precedence: one amber flag (one points, 65th percentile)
For Denver, the lone shortcoming in the Super Bowl Super Study is a 4-4 road record. That clearly doesn’t apply here. However, the flags for the Colts can still apply to this match-up. Note that the super study considers the Broncos to be a true Super Bowl contender, while the Colts are considered a fringe Super Bowl contender. Therefore, we give the advantage to Denver for playoff team precedence.
Once again, we see a home team with a 2-0 advantage, according to our Four Postseason Factors. We predicted to home team to win by one possession in each of those first two match-ups, and it would make sense to do the same here too. However, unlike the previous two match-ups in question, this one involves a team balance advantage for the home team. We think this will allow the Broncos to control the game more than the other two home teams. Therefore, we’ll say that Denver finds a way to gain separation for a few stretches in this game. That should lead to a multiple-possession win for the Broncos. Prediction: Denver Broncos 28, Indianapolis Colts 17