Today begins what may believe to be the best weekend of the NFL season. In 2014, we have the top four ranked teams in the TABRankings have home field for the four respective games. These games own a combined 30-2 record at their respective home fields. One of those losses came when the New England Patriots rested their starters in Week 17 after clinching AFC home-field advantage. The other loss was the Seattle Seahawks loss suffered against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
Does that mean we see all four home teams win for the first time in the Divisional Round since 2004? Let’s find out.
Remember, our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value (26.29) per week.
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 525 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we must remind you of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
Now, let’s get to the games!
(7) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 + 1-0) at (1) New England Patriots (12-4 + 0-0)
If there’s been any two teams in the AFC that pound-for-pound plays the best in the playoffs, it’s the Ravens and Patriots. New England reached the AFC Championship Game eight times in the previous 13 seasons, which is truly an unparalleled stretch in the NFL’s modern era. However, the Patriots were upset at home thrice in those 13 seasons, and two of those losses came to Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Under Flacco and head coach Jon Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a 10-4 record and was a playoff game in six different seasons. This game could be a barn-burner, as the Ravens might be the toughest match-up the Patriots could face in the AFC.
Ravens team balance: 8.6 pass O, 7.2 run O, 13.2 pass D, 5.0 rush D, 7.0 scoring, 13.4 battle-tested
Patriots team balance: 13.2 pass D, 9.6 run D, 7.4 pass O, 13.8 rush O, 3.6 scoring, 3.2 battle-tested
Like we said, the Ravens might provide the toughest AFC match-up for the Patriots. Baltimore is balanced very well, having the ability to run and pass on offense, as well as defend the run and rush the passer. The secondary is the one area of weakness, but the only true way the Patriots can exploit that is through tight end Rob Gronkowski. He’s the only game-changing receiver on the team. However, what truly makes the Ravens the tough nut to crack is that they are the only team that can remotely compare to New England’s scoring efficiency. Finally, the Patriots are more battle-tested, but it’s not enough for an advantage. No advantage will be given for team balance.
Coaching quality: Patriots 1.75 average rank, Ravens 5.25 average rank
Usually, this is just an auto advantage for the Patriots, but here’s where the previous match-ups come into play. Baltimore owns a 2-1 playoff record in New England under Harbaugh, and the lone loss came in the 2011 AFC Championship Game. The Ravens arguably outplayed, and they would’ve sent the game into overtime if not for a shanked field goal in the final minute of regulation. For some reason, Harbaugh has the pull in a direct match-up to make this a wash. No advantage will be given for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Patriots 499.75 points, Ravens 393.75 points
Here, we see the Patriots owning the numbers of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, the Ravens only own the numbers of a fringe Super Bowl contender. We don’t need to discuss much else, as we give the advantage to New England for the TABRankings.
Ravens playoff team precedence: one red flag, two amber flags (five points, 30th percentile)
Patriots playoff team precedence: one amber flag (one points, 65th percentile)
According to this study, the Ravens are only considered a fringe Super Bowl contender, while the Patriots are considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We see a similar dynamic to that of the TABRankings. Baltimore struggled in the division and on the road, earning one of each flag from those shortcomings. The rest equals out, with the Ravens earning an amber flag for a meager Passer Rating Differential and the Patriots earning an amber flag for a meager Yards per Play Differential. Still, the Patriots better fit the normality of a Super Bowl team, especially in this spot. We give the advantage to New England for playoff team precedence.
The Ravens seem to be the best fit for an “upset” against the Patriots. They know this spot before, and they certainly will be motivated to win again. However, the Patriots are more complete now that they were from 2009 to 2012. Those teams lacked a truly strong pass defense, one which is now much improved after acquiring Darrelle Revis at cornerback. Because of this balance, we will that the Ravens don’t have a true advantage to exploit, so they will fall short. Prediction: New England Patriots 28, Baltimore Ravens 21
(13) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1 + 1-0) at (4) Seattle Seahawks (12-4 + 0-0)
These two teams are quite familiar with each other, so many experts are trying to examine the validity of a potential upset. Carolina won its last five games, while Seattle won its last six games. Meanwhile, no two teams own a better rushing average per game in December than the Panthers and Seahawks. Also, in three meetings in Carolina over the past three seasons, all three games were decided by one possession. However, Seattle won all three and allowed only a combined 28 points. Furthermore, looking at the factors, we have to question the upset potential. The Seahawks are now home, which changes the game a lot.
Panthers team balance: 19.6 pass O, 15.0 rush O, 12.6 pass D, 24.8 run D, 25.0 scoring, 20.7 battle-tested
Seahawks team balance: 7.2 pass D, 2.6 rush D, 14.6 pass O, 2.4 rush O, 13.2 scoring, 3.1 battle-tested
Looking at the unit match-ups, we honestly have no idea why experts think this is a good match-up for Carolina. Yes, the last three games were close, but they were all in Carolina. Seattle struggles in road games across three time zones. Now, the Seahawks are home. They match-up favorably to dominate running the football, especially with center Max Unger returning for Seattle and defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei out for Carolina. Meanwhile, with lots of experience against Colin Kaepernick, we think the Seattle defense can handle the Carolina read option. Add in the passing elements between very different quarterbacks, in terms of efficiency, and this could become one side. That’s not to mention Seattle’s strengths in scoring efficiency and battle-tested quality play. Carolina is honestly out of its element, even if you add weight to the December games. We give the advantage to Seattle for team balance.
Coaching quality: Seahawks 5.50 average rank, Panthers 10.00 average rank
It wasn’t too long ago that we would’ve had these two coaches in the same ballpark, both as capable head coaches with concerns of being a true playoff-caliber head coach. However, with Pete Carroll’s fantastic job done thus far in Seattle, he’s move another level of Ron Rivera and his staff. This Seattle team plays better in primetime games under Carroll, and going a stellar 14-2 since 2012 (including the playoffs). This includes a current 11-game winning streak. We give the advantage to Seattle for coaching quality.
TABRankings: Seahawks 494.34 points, Panthers 300.49 points
The Seahawks are two levels ahead of the Panthers in this factor. We easily give the advantage to Seattle for the TABRankings.
Panthers playoff team precedence: eight red flags (24 points, 1st percentile)
Seahawks playoff team precedence: no flags (zero points, 73rd percentile)
This is the biggest advantage of all. The Seahawks are flawless, according to our Super Bowl Super Study, while the Panthers had eight major shortcomings. And we only looked at 13 factors! Seattle fits the billing a normal Super Bowl contender, while Carolina fits the billing of a team that make the Super Bowl once every 50 years. We easily give the advantage to Seattle for playoff team precedence.
We’ve seen rumblings of people thinking this will be a close game since late December. We just don’t buy it. The Panthers scored 28 points in three home meetings against Seattle. We can’t see them scoring more than 14 points, unless the Seahawks turn the ball over. Note that Seattle had seven giveaways by Russell Wilson all season. With this game being played in Seattle, it will be more one-sided for the favorites. And with it now also in the playoffs, we don’t see the Seahawks slipping up. Actually, we see the Seahawks continuing to build off their strong December. This could get ugly. Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 30, Carolina Panthers 6