Remember when I said Saturday that this could be a “mess for all parties involved.” Well, this technically was my worst overall week predicting games, as my streak of double-digit wins comes to an end. However, it’s not in the way I expected. Save for the Seahawks-Colts classic, I went perfect through the gauntlet for early games Sunday. Seattle has to thank a failed punt block recovery and a blocked field goals returned for a touchdown for its loss. That was 15-point swing between those two plays alone. Give an Indianapolis team that was ranked sixth in the TABRankings chances like that, and the Colts are going to win at home. Simply having a chance to win that game late just goes to show what the Seahawks can do in each game. We’ll take that loss with pride, to be honest.
What ends up making me look bad, though, is the afternoon and prime-time games. Save for pretty much nailing the Broncos-Cowboys game on the head, I went 1-4 after that near-perfect start. And thanks to that win, we ended up hearing the ridiculous concept of blaming a quarterback for “losing the game” when he posted 140+ passer rating. The “blame Tony Romo’ game officially jumped the shark. All parties involved need the Hulk Hogan leg drop. (Don’t worry, I’m working on that for Cold, Hard Football Facts.)
Games of the Week (3 points)
(2) New Orleans Saints (4-0) at (11) Chicago Bears (3-1)
(3) Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at (6) Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
(13) Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at (8) Miami Dolphins (3-1)
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at (9) Tennessee Titans (3-1)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(7) Detroit Lions (3-1) at (23) Green Bay Packers (1-2) **Upset of the Week**
(19) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at (32) New York Giants (0-4)
(14) San Diego Chargers (2-2) at (26) Oakland Raiders (1-3)
The Rest (1 point each)
(17) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at (18) Cleveland Browns (2-2)
(5) New England Patriots (4-0) at (20) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at (29) St. Louis Rams (1-3)
(10) Carolina Panthers (1-2) at (25) Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
(1) Denver Broncos (4-0) at (15) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
(12) Houston Texans (2-2) at (16) San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
(22) New York Jets (2-2) at (21) Atlanta Falcons (1-3) **Lock of the Week**
Talk about taking a leg drop. Let’s recap the four losses after the glorious 8-1 start. First, I expected Arizona to be the team that needed about 40 more yards per points scored, not Carolina. Can I trust Ron Rivera and Cam Newton? This is the second time they burned me on the road. Yet again, they start slow. It’s a 1-3 start for them, and they next play at Minnesota. I smell a trap.
Second, I decide to pick Houston in what I considered to be a toss-up game, citing the inevitable regression in points off turnovers relative to the yards off turnovers. What happens was some regression in points relative to yards, but not the points themselves. Three more Schaub interceptions included an early back-breaking pick six, leading to 21 points on 101 yards. This results in by far my dumbest pick of the season. Since I haven’t lost at that many games, I can give a quick capsule of point differential of each loss: 3, 6, 1, 7 (Week 1), 3, 1 (Week 2), 4, 10, 4, 7, 20 (Week 3), 11, 3, 7, 3, 9 (Week 4), 6, 10, 16, 31 and 2 (Week 5). Besides the out-of-left field 20-point home loss by the 49ers, this is my only predicted team to lose by more than two possessions. This point margin alone was worse than the first two weeks combined, and it was just two points shy of last week’s combined failure.
Next, I completely overlooked a chance of the Raiders beating the Chargers. Terrelle Pryor continues to prove that even as a believer in his ability to be a successful quarterback, I undersold his chances to help the team to win. I honestly didn’t put much thought into that game, and it resulted in only my second incorrect pick in the divisional games.
Finally, we have a loss in my “Lock of the Week.” This was absolutely no intended disrespect to the Jets, who have long been considered in my eyes as a playoff team once they figure out the quarterback situation. Instead, this was a huge sign of respect of a team and quarterback that haven’t lost consecutive home games together. Now they’ve done so, with both being primetime games, nonetheless. I’ll still pick locks in the future, but just know that I’ve been “eliminated.”
Once again, we have a solid “worst week.” Check out the numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 9-5 and 17 points
- Overall record and points: 56-21 and 102 points
- Games of the Week: 3-1 this week (15-4 overall)
- Divisional Games: 2-1 this week (20-2 overall) [includes 4-0 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 4-1 overall (60 ranking points)
- Lock of the Week: 4-1 overall (eliminated once)
Now for the competition. I wanted this to be a 1 v. 25 battle, so I selected experts from several different publications. Writing some freelance stuff for Cold, Hard Football Facts, I figure that website would provide a great litmus test. Meanwhile, I figure another publication that could provide a litmus test would be Football Outsiders. Of course, there needs to be that mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and the eight experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday Morning or Playbook. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated. They provide at least some perspective from other top publications.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 58-19 | 1 | Jaworski | 102 | |
| 2 | TABMathletics | 56-21 | 1 | TABM | 102 | |
| 3 | Don Banks, SI | 52-25 | 3 | Banks | 95 | |
| 3 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 52-25 | 4 | Carter | 90 | |
| 5 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 50-27 | 5 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 89 | |
| 5 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 50-27 | 5 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 89 | |
| 5 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 50-27 | 7 | Golic | 88 | |
| 5 | Schlereth | 50-27 | 8 | Football Outsiders | 87 | |
| 9 | Cold, Hard Football Facts | 49-28 | 8 | Sapp | 87 | |
| 9 | FO | 49-28 | 10 | Ditka | 86 | |
| 9 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 49-28 | 10 | Joyner | 86 | |
| 9 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 49-28 | 12 | CHFF | 85 | |
| 13 | Hoge | 48-29 | 12 | Mariucci | 85 | |
| 13 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 48-29 | M | Mean Points | 84.7 | |
| 13 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 48-29 | 14 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 84 | |
| 13 | Mortensen | 48-29 | 15 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 83 | |
| M | Mean Record | 47.9-29.1 | 15 | Seth Wickerham, ESPN | 83 | |
| 17 | Wickersham | 47-30 | 17 | Jackson | 81 | |
| 18 | Faulk | 45-32 | 18 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 79 | |
| 18 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 45-32 | 18 | Johnson | 79 | |
| 18 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 45-32 | 18 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 79 | |
| 18 | Warner | 45-32 | 18 | Prisco | 79 | |
| 22 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 44-33 | 22 | Allen | 78 | |
| 23 | Brian Baldinger, NFLN | 43-34 | 23 | Baldinger | 77 | |
| 24 | O’Hara | 42-35 | 23 | Irvin | 77 | |
| 24 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 42-35 | 25 | Schefter | 76 | |
| 24 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 42-35 | 26 | Sharpe | 75 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 26 competitors).
Right now, we have a two-man race for the top spot in this unofficial competition. The man who arguably looks at more film than anybody in the mainstream media owns a two-game lead on me, but we’re equal in points. Meanwhile, I own a four-game lead on the next closest expert to me. That’s the same distance between third and 13th place in record. Only Ron Jaworski and Don Banks are within 10 points of my co-lead. Finally, since I now added in the mean, I own an 8.1-game lead and 17.3-point lead on the average expert.
Here’s to keeping up the standard for another week, even if the tail end of the week was a near total flop.