I can’t say enough how big this week will be. All five of the 4-0 teams go on the road to play a 2-2 or 3-1 teams. The two 2-2 teams are Cincinnati and Dallas, who played stellar games in Week 3, only to lose in disappointing efforts in Week 4. Add in several other tough games, like Sunday night’s affair San Francisco and a suddenly surging Detroit team playing in Green Bay, and this week looks like it could be a mess for all parties involved. Here’s just hoping I don’t lose all the games I have that differ from the closest competition.
Remember, using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, as well as the challenge of predicting each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Before we even get to the rankings, this week looks like one filled with several Games of the Week. In reality, it’s not even the “most powerful” weekend of the year. Week 5 involves only four games with “Game of the Week” credentials, while there were five such games in Week 2. Of course, if Cincinnati and Dallas handled their business on the road last week, this would’ve certainly involved six “Games of the Week.” Still, this week will be very tough, especially since I’ve dropped my preseason predictions from consideration.
Games of the Week (3 points)
(2) New Orleans Saints (4-0) at (11) Chicago Bears (3-1)
Look at the quality defensive passing numbers for these two teams. If you said one team at this point was third in Defensive Passer Rating and another was 18th, I bet nearly the entire cross section of NFL fans and experts would’ve said in August that the Saints would be the latter team. However, that’s actually the Bears. Unless Chicago can turn the ball over, I don’t see how they stop Drew Brees. Sure, Brees might play his weakest against the Cover-2, but he’s an elite quarterback for good reasons. I’m going with him over Jay Cutler.
(3) Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at (6) Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
While the media continues to hawk Seattle’s struggles in the eastern half of the country, let’s look back to their past four road games played at 1pm EST. The Seahawks began to Bears’ downfall with a season-changing 23-17 overtime victory in Chicago. They overcame 27-7 deficit in Atlanta, only for the Matt Ryan one-minute drill (something Ryan arguably does better than any quarterback in the NFL) to give the Falcons a 30-28 win in the divisional round. They won 12-7 against an underrated Carolina team to start this season. Finally, they overcame a 20-3 halftime deficit to defeat the Texans in overtime last week. I think by season’s end, we’ll see why the Panthers and Texans are quality teams. Thus, you have a 3-1 record in that time, with a late-game wins in Toronto (50-17 against Buffalo) and the nation’s capitol (a Wild Card Weekend victory over Washington) included as well. Let’s not fool ourselves; the Seahawks look like a different team on the road. However, they are still winning. The Colts are finally playing up statistically to their record, by also played three unimpressive offenses (Oakland, Miami and Jacksonville). Indianapolis actually has the bigger statement to make.
(13) Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at (8) Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Little known fact: the Ravens own a 63.45 Defensive Passer Rating since their Week 1 debacle against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. You may counter by saying that playing a Weeden-Schaub-Manuel trio isn’t exactly the toughest task. However, this total would rank second in the National Football League if not for Manning. Also, including Thursday night’s Bills-Browns game, those three own a combined 79.42 passer rating. The difference is still notable. Ryan Tannehill owns a decent 85.30 passer rating, so the Ravens would knock him under 70 if they hold to form. Meanwhile, with Tannehill taking 18 sacks and fumbling six times (three lost), this makes a great match-up for a Ravens defense that ranks third in Cold, Hard Football Facts‘ Defensive Hog Index. Finally, while the experts believe that the Ravens will struggle to run against Miami, note that the Dolphins rank 20th in the DHI (including 24th in rush yards allowed per attempt) and 14th in CHFF’s Defensive Rusher Rating. I feel like the Ravens are the smarter play.
(4) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at (9) Tennessee Titans (3-1)
We’ve already went into detail how Alex Smith wins. He needs the defense to play well, holding opponents under 24 points. He also needs a strong run game. Achieve those two things, and add in takeaways to boot, and Smith is now a near lock to win. The Titans became only the second team in NFL history (along with the 1995 Rams) to go the first four games without a giveaway. That Rams team turned the ball over in each of their final 12 games, including multiple turnovers in 11 of those 12 games. With Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing the injured Jake Locker, it’s a strong possibility that one of those multiple-turnover games happen tomorrow. I’m finding it harder to pick the home teams in these games, but once again, the match-ups favor the 4-0 squad.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(7) Detroit Lions (3-1) at (23) Green Bay Packers (1-2) **Upset of the Week**
The last time Detroit won in Green Bay, I wasn’t even three years old yet. In the 1991 season, the Lions lost in the NFC Championship Games and won their only playoff game since 1957. Meanwhile, the Packers were a forgettable 4-12 team. Statistically speaking, the raw numbers suggest the Lions could be as good as that 1991 team. I don’t trust the numbers, though. The win against Chicago marks only Matt Stafford’s second against a winning team (if the Bears stay over .500 by season’s end). Remember, the Lions played the Vikings, Cardinals and Redskins before they got this marquee win. Stafford still remains liable to make turnovers. I think the Lions may be the type of balanced type to beat the Packers, but I’ll wait until Thanksgiving to see if I truly believe they can beat Green Bay.
(19) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at (32) New York Giants (0-4)
Minus the “Reid Bowl” debacle, the Eagles offense is looking deadly efficient. Their problems, though, are that the defense cannot make stops and Michael Vick can’t consistently build leads. This allows teams to control the clock and slow down the Chip Kelly offense. On the flip side, minus the first four weeks, the Giants are looking just peachy. Their problems, though, are that the first four weeks is all we have to account for in 2013. This team ranks worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars. No way am I picking them, even in this amazing rivalry. Remember, in recent years, the Eagles generally play better in New Jersey. The Eagles haven’t lost consecutive games on the road against the Giants since they lost five consecutive such games from 1997 to 2000.
(14) San Diego Chargers (2-2) at (26) Oakland Raiders (1-3)
Thankfully for the Raiders, they get back Terrelle Pryor. His ability to run makes this a challenging game for the putrid San Diego defense. One should wonder, though, about the second half shutout of the Dallas Cowboys last week. Part of that was luck, due to Terrence Williams’ fumble inside the 10-yard line. Perhaps part of that was the Cowboys being the Cowboys. But one would think part of that had to do with the Chargers possibly getting better on that side of the football. The difference, though, will come with the sudden reemergence of Philip Rivers. The San Diego signal caller seems to love having Mike McCoy as head coach. The Raiders pass defense is just as bad as San Diego’s, so let’s trust the veteran quarterback to get the Chargers a winning streak.
The Rest (1 point each)
(17) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at (18) Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Albeit in unexpected fashion, I began the week on the right foot with the Browns victory. Nearly all of the experts went lock step with this pick, so it’s quite easy to say that the fun has yet to begin.
(5) New England Patriots (4-0) at (20) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
The Patriots looked very strong defensively through three games, but they finally stepped down to Earth a bit last week. They finally played a quarterback that can guide an offense with some teeth. Meanwhile, losing Vince Wilfork for the season will certainly mean the defensive continues to take a step down. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, they haven’t played consistent ball and haven’t truly stood out on defense statistically. I believe Geno Atkins should be recognized as one of the top three defensive players in the league currently (with J.J. Watt and Richard Sherman). There needs to be at least undefeated team that falls on the road this week. I’m willing to roll the dice with this one, because I think the absence of Wilfork and the presence of the Bengals front seven can make it work.
(31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at (29) St. Louis Rams (1-3)
I think Sterling Sharpe is the only expert willing to even give the Jaguars a chance. Yeah, I’ll pass.
(10) Carolina Panthers (1-2) at (25) Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Perhaps Carolina’s ranking might be inflated by the 38-0 win against the Giants. Perhaps they are just some tough luck away from being 3-0. Whatever the case may be, I think the Panthers are clearly the better team. The Cardinals were gifted a game in Tampa Bay last week. They won’t get the same treatment against a team that requires teams to get nearly 27 yards per point allowed.
(1) Denver Broncos (4-0) at (15) Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
These are usually the games that the Cowboys play very well. Remember, Tony Romo is the only quarterback in NFL history to win multiple games against teams who are 9-0 or better. (Note: Drew Brees owns two wins against teams 8-0 or better.) This includes a 2006 win over 9-0 Colts, led by Peyton Manning. In fact, for Romo, this is his fifth start against a team 4-0 or better. He owns a 100.53 passer rating through the first four such games. Dallas tied or led in the fourth quarter of each game. I really want to pick the Cowboys, but their holes in the Cover-2 loom too large right now. Morris Claiborne (injuries) and Bruce Carter (misfit in coverage) are both struggling immensely, and Sean Lee isn’t doing much better. This amazing Broncos offense will regress sooner than later. However, with what the match-ups say, the regression won’t be significant enough for the Cowboys to win.
(12) Houston Texans (2-2) at (16) San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
What the Texans clearly stink at is making their opponents work to score. Matt Schaub threw six interceptions in four weeks. This resulted in 31 points on 40 yards. Of those 40 yards allowed, 32 of them came on the only non-scoring drive. That was the Earl Thomas interception in the first half last week. Let’s be real: this rate won’t continue. Three interceptions were returned for a touchdown. Another resulted in a 14-yard touchdown on the ensuing play. Now here’s the questions: how much will this regress, and what will the 49ers do when trying to deal with the said regression? This is a hunch, but looking at how angry guys like J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing were about losing last week’s game to Seattle, I feel like they will make enough plays to stop the 49ers from scoring easily enough to win.
(22) New York Jets (2-2) at (21) Atlanta Falcons (1-3) **Lock of the Week**
So why am I picking a lock for a team that is one spot better than their opponents? The Falcons are 1-3 large in part due to regression in one-possession games. On the other hand, the Jets are very much inconsistent, and that in part led to a 38-13 drubbing in Tennessee. However, I make this my lock because there’s no way I see the Falcons losing back-to-back prime-time games at home. Matt Ryan has never lost back-to-back home starts. I feel very safe putting my trust into the Falcons.