Editor’s Note: Every Monday until the end of the regular season, we will profile each team that clinches a postseason berth. We will look at each team’s stats as it relates to the Four Postseason Factors. We will show parts of the statistical profile today, but we will need to wait until Tuesday to show the league ranking (and remaining profile) for each stat. Those updates will be integrated below within this post. These rankings will illustrate each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the point in which the team clinched a postseason berth.
The defending Super Bowl champions left little doubt since their season-opening victory that they were ready to once again be a major contender in the NFL. Tom Brady won his suspension appeal and ripped apart defense from the get-go, systematically getting redemption en route to a 10-0 start to the season. The Patriots also improved on defense in several ways this season, highlighted by last night’s domination of the Houston Texans. Now that New England clinched a postseason berth, the Patriots look to round into form in favor of the Four Postseason Factors. Today, we examine what areas of New England’s game already fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender and what areas may need improvement. The examined stats relate to team balance, coaching quality, overall efficiency and playoff team precedence.
Team Balance: Defense on Pace with Offense
For years, the Patriots have been an offense-first team, and that led for a handful of postseason disappointment. Bill Belichick and crew struggled to find a Super Bowl-worthy defense, and it perhaps cost them a few championships. However, the defense stepped up last year en route to the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl victory. That unit found a way to improve this year despite some major offseason roster moves. Check out the stats below. These stats were first used during last year’s Four Postseason Factors (FPF) analysis. Remember, this analysis helped us to go 18-4 within the last two NFL postseasons in the Pick’em competition.
Table 1: New England Patriots Statistical Profile (through Week 14)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 103.80 | 6.99 | 37.36 | 5.61 | 39.4% | Run Offense | 101.51 | 3.82 | 25 | 11.67 | -2.6% | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | |
| Pass Defense | 83.09 | 5.72 | 33.13 | 8 | 0.5% | Run Defense | 86.75 | 4.06 | 20.32 | 10.33 | -15.0% | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | |
| Scoring Efficiency | +4.07 | +12.03 | +6.27 | +12.64 | 3.5% | Quality Tests | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5-2 | +5 |
OPR: Offensive Passer Rating, NY/D: Net Yards per Dropback, 1st%: First Down Percentage, Sack%: Sack Percentage,
DVOA: Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (all rights to this stat belong to Football Outsiders), DPR: Defensive Passer Rating,
NYA/D: Net Yards Allowed per Dropback, NY/P: Net Yards per Point Scored, REL: Relative Scoring Average, 3rd%: Third Down Percentage Differential,
RZ%: Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Differential, ORR: Offensive Rusher Rating (first analyzed on Cold, Hard Football Facts),
YPA: Rush Yards per Attempt, OHI: Offensive Hog Index (created by CHFF), DRR: Defensive Rusher Rating (CHFF), DHI: Defensive Hog Index (CHFF),
vQO: W-L v. Quality Opponents, vPO: W-L v. Playoff Opponents, QRW: Quality Road Wins, PL3: Playoff W-L from 2012-14, DDWD: Double-Digit Win Differential
Outside of the run offense averaging fewer than four yards per attempt, no statistic seems to indicate a major weakness. Good for New England, though, as that YPA total is countered well by the team’s outstanding Run First Down Percentage. For a team that knows how to regularly handle business against inferior teams, this should put fear of all other postseason teams. Check out the rankings below and see how the Patriots are threat in all phases of the game.
Table 2: New England Patriots Statistical Rankings (through Week 14)
| Area | OPR | NY/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | ORR | YPA | 1st% | OHI | DVOA | Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 4th | 5th | 5th | 17th | 4th | 7.0 | Run Offense | 3rd | 24th | t-3th | 6th | 10th | 9.3 | |
| Area | DPR | NYA/D | 1st% | Sack% | DVOA | Mean | Area | DRR | YPA | 1st% | DHI | DVOA | Mean | |
| Pass Defense | 9th | 3rd | 14th | 2nd | 11th | 7.8 | Run Defense | 16th | 14th | 7th | 8th | 13th | 11.6 | |
| Area | NY/P | REL | 3rd% | RZ% | DVOA | Mean | Area | vQO | vPO | QRW | PL3 | DDWD | Mean | |
| Scoring Efficiency | 4th | 1st | 6th | 6th | 4th | 4.2 | Quality Tests | t-4th | t-5th | t-17th | 3rd | t-2nd | 8.8 |
See Table 1 for the statistical legend.
The Patriots rank worse than 17th in only Run Yards per Attempt, indicating our initial impression was accurate. See how that’s countered by the third-best Run First Down Percentage? That shows the New England offense is using its run game in extremely timely fashion. Meanwhile, New England ranks in the top six in 18 of 30 statistical categories. Besides the run defense, which does not feature a single top six finish, the Patriots are a very valid threat all around.
Compared to last year’s team, the Patriots roughly even with the 2014 squad in pass offense (7.4) and scoring efficiency (3.6). Meanwhile, they have improved this year in pass defense (from 13.2) and rush offense (from 13.8) while taking a step back in run defense (from 9.6) and quality tests (from 3.2). Save for facing an elite rush offense that can control the clock, no match-up poses a problem for the Patriots as they look to repeat. New England may even be a tougher out in 2015, compared to last year.
Coaching Quality: Nobody Beats Belichick
During last year’s FPF analysis, we gave Bill Belichick by and far the best grade among the 12 postseason head coaches. That certainly won’t change this year, as Belichick continues to prove why he’s the unequivocal number one head coach in the game. This year, his best showing involves the oversight of a much-improved secondary. New England lost Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner at cornerback in the offseason. While Browner was dispensable, Revis was a game-changer. However, players like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan have stepped in rather seamlessly by now, allowing the pass defense to be one of the best in the league.
Overall Efficiency: TABRankings See a Super Bowl Contender
As of the Week 13 TABRankings, the Patriots ranked third. They will most likely hold on to a Top 4 spot come next week’s rankings.
As mentioned on Friday, the Week 13 TABR involved 226.99 mean points with a standard deviation of 139.35 points. New England is one of the just six teams that were at least one standard deviation better than the mean. They suggest that the Patriots are one of the true Super Bowl contenders. We recognized this last Monday when the profiled the Carolina Panthers.
Playoff Team Precedence: No Current Flaws in New England’s Résumé
Finally, we look at playoff team precedence. We first delved into this type of analysis when we tested key factors of precedence for Cold, Hard Football Facts. That eventually evolved into our Super Bowl Super Study. If you examine that study, you’ll see our 13 key factors for playoff team precedence. Looking at the Patriots, we don’t expect anything to be of major issue.
- The Home-Away Split: 6-1 at home, 5-1 on the road… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Divisional Success: 4-0 v. the AFC East… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Season Starts and Finishes: 8-0 in the first half, unknown second half… flag status pending finish
- Maximum Losing Streaks: Two-game losing streak… projects to be flag-free
- Single-Season Improvements: 12-4 last year, 11-2 this season… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Starting Quarterback Experience: Tom Brady owns a 21-8 postseason record… guaranteed to be flag-free
- Success v. Non-Quality Opponents: 9-1 record with 4 one-possession wins… projects to be flag-free
- Success v. Playoff Teams: 0-0 record… flag stats pending (re: only two other postseason berths clinched)
- Blowout Losses: No blowout losses… projects to be flag-free
- Turnover Margin per Game: plus-0.38 TO/gm… projects to be flag-free
- Point Differential per Game: plus-11.46 points/gm… projects to be flag-free
- Passer Rating Differential: plus-20.72 points… projects to be flag-free
- Yards per Play Differential: plus-0.79 yards/play… projects to be flag-free
We labeled any playoff team with three or fewer points as a “true Super Bowl contender” during last year’s FPF analysis. New England seems to be secure in being a true contender, especially with the Bills (currently 6-7 and has two of the four one-possession losses to the Patriots) can finish with at least a .500 record. The typical strong December finish for New England will be more than enough to ensure true contender status. The Patriots finishing with the Titans, Jets and Dolphins make us confident in that strong finish.
FINAL ASSESSMENT: LEGITIMATE CONTENDER IN ALL FOUR FACTORS
Once again, the Patriots have the makings of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It’s a shame that so few AFC teams have been able to successfully mimic New England’s template for sustained success, but it’s a reality that the Patriots don’t mind. They should be the team to beat, being that they are the defending Super Bowl champions. It will take a team that can hold its own in a match-up based on the Four Postseason Factors while getting a few breaks in the process. We’ve seen the Patriots upset before, this may be the most complete team in New England since the 2007 team went undefeated in the regular season. Let’s see if anybody can stop them.