Another week, another chance for domination. The season predictions will be factored in once again. Between the 25 percent weight of 2012 in the TABRankings and my 77 percent winning in the NFL Pick’em through three weeks, I think it’s best to split things 50-50 between my preseason expectations and my current expectations. Let’s say there’s not much I feel different about Week 4.
Remember, using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” of each game, as well as the challenge of predicting each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
Next week, the season predictions will no longer be considered. Using them for one quarter of a season seems to be enough.
Games of the Week (3 points)
(4) Chicago Bears (3-0) at (13) Detroit Lions (2-1) **Upset of the Week**
At the beginning of the season, I expected these two teams to split. Usually, the home field advantage works better for this rivalry. Due to an extreme poor track record on the road, the Lions naturally perform better at home to try to pull off the upset. So far this season, the Bears are playing better than expected, but their pass defense is still regressing overall. Despite forcing a league-high 11 turnovers, the Bears rank an average 19th in Defensive Passer Rating. Meanwhile, the Lions are 3rd in Defensive Passer Rating and 4th in Real Quarterback Rating Differential, according to Cold, Hard Football Facts. There’s little reason to make the change.
(2) Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at (11) Houston Texans (2-1)
Yes, I actually chose the Seahawks to win their first two road games in the early time slot. It’s a big endorsement for a team I think has the best shot to win Super Bowl XLVIII. It’s also a sign of what I expect to see a decline in Houston’s overall play, compared to last year. Sure, I originally selected Seahawks over Patriots in Super Bowl XLVIII, but give me some other seeding, I possibly could’ve chose Seahawks over Texans. I think predicting postseason results in August are incredibly overrated, due to the postseason’s randomness stemming from the single-elimination format. Anyways, as of this match-up, I stick with Seattle because they are a much more intelligent bet to score efficiently. Teams needed fewer than 10 yards to score a point against the Texans through three game. Particularly, of Matt Schaub’s four interceptions so far, teams needed only eight yards to score 24 points. That’s no misprint. Sure, this means regression will happen, but regression only goes so far. Expect the Cold, Hard Football Facts’ “Intelligence Index” to be arguably the biggest deciding factor in this game. Seattle gets a road victory that will double as a statement to the league of their Super Bowl competence.
(8) Miami Dolphins (3-0) at (5) New Orleans Saints (3-0)
To be quite frank, I don’t think this will be close. It’s nothing against the Dolphins, really. New Orleans quite simply parties better at home than any other team on Monday Night Football since Sean Peyton and Drew Brees teamed up. There’s good reason why everybody picked the Saints. They are an easy play this week. I wish we could have a closer match between two 3-0 teams.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(20) San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at (22) St. Louis Rams (1-2)
As expected, due to the extensive research, Colin Kaepernick earned a 100+ passer rating en route to a 49ers victory. This game could’ve been a different one if the Rams pass defense played better.
(10) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at (28) Cleveland Browns (1-2)
En route to an AFC North title, I expect the Bengals to go 5-1 against the AFC North. With the way Cincinnati played defense last week against Green Bay, they should be able to pressure Brian Hoyer and crew enough to pull away with the victory.
(14) Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
At preseason check, this was expected to a sweep for the Colts. There’s absolutely nothing to think otherwise.
The Rest (1 point each)
(7) Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at (23) Buffalo Bills (1-2)
For the 2013 NFL predictions, the Ravens’ 10-6 record accounted for a 3-1 mark against the AFC East. It also accounted for a win in Buffalo. It took three weeks, but the Ravens finally played at least up to expectation in their 30-9 win against Houston. Meanwhile, the Bills allowed Geno Smith to pass for well more than 10 yards per pass attempt last week.
(30) New York Giants (0-3) at (6) Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) **Lock of the Week**
The season predictions accounted for a New York win against Andy Reid. This absolutely must be changed. Given the Giants’ propensity for the turnover and Alex Smith’s ability to game manage his team to victory when his opponents turn the ball over, this win should be an easy one for Kansas City. Don’t let preseason expectations fool you.
(31) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) at (24) Minnesota Vikings (0-3) in London
Please let this poor match-up go abroad. There’s simply no need for the NFL season to be wasted in England, but much better games could go to waste across the seas. If Pittsburgh can’t win this one, then the team will hit a new low.
(25) Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at (27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
Perhaps a quarterback change will be what the doctor ordered for the Buccaneers. Then again, it’s a switch to a rookie quarterback. This quarterback played college football at North Carolina State and was drafted in the third round. Unfortunately, Mike Glennon is NOT Russell Wilson. Wilson was a first-round pick if scouts weren’t allergic to silly things like a quarterback’s height. Temper that excitement in Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers’ should win in a cross-country trip for the Cardinals, as expected back in August.
(17) New York Jets (2-1) at (18) Tennessee Titans (2-1)
The Jets are seeing maddeningly inconsistent play from Geno Smith. Meanwhile, Jake Locker has yet to turn the ball over. It’s hard to believe this was one of three wins I had for this team back in August. Now, they could be 3-1 and completely warrant the start. It doesn’t feel all that bad to be proven wrong by this young and feisty team.
(21) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at (1) Denver Broncos (3-0)
The Broncos offense looks virtually unstoppable. The Eagles defense doesn’t look like much of a threat. That should say it all.
(29) Washington Redskins (0-3) at (26) Oakland Raiders (1-2)
It doesn’t look like Terrelle Pryor will play. Because backup Matt Flynn doesn’t add an extra element to the offense, expect the Raiders to play to the level of a team that’s expected to go winless against the NFC East. The Redskins can finally celebrate a win.
(9) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at (19) San Diego Chargers (1-2)
San Diego trailed by a combined 15 seconds in their losses to Houston and Tennessee. That looks really good. They also ranked 28th in Defensive Passer Rating and dead last in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, according to Cold, Hard Football Facts. That looks really bad. Between these two teams, it seems like Dallas has more balance. I’ll stick with the preseason pick.
(3) New England Patriots (3-0) at (16) Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
I’m honestly not sure why most of the experts were assuming the Falcons would win. Wait, I lied. They clearly are not noticing what the Patriots are doing well. New England ranks top five in the quality pass defensive stats. This is a big enough mismatch that it’s not even considered one of the “Games of the Week.” I went with New England back in August, and I’m sticking to it now.