The football world was set abuzz Sunday afternoon when the Indianapolis Colts traveled to Candlestick and absolutely manhandled the San Francisco 49ers. In the 27-7 win, the trenches were completely dominated by the visitors. In particular, the ease in which the Colts ran the ball should be looked at as a jarring difference from what occurred in the previous two season. The 49ers already allowed six rushing touchdowns, as opposed to the 10 allowed in the first 32 regular season games of Jim Harbaugh’s NFL head coaching career. However, the play of San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick grabbed most of the headlines.
Colin Kaepernick’s dominance subsided the past two weeks, but regression says he’ll be kissing biceps to more success in the future. (photo rights to Harry How / Getty Images)
Kaepernick’s line didn’t look good, as it read: 13-of-27 for 150 yards and an interception. Experts wondered what went wrong for the quarterback, given that he also looked beaten and lost the previous week in Seattle. He now has back-to-back games with a sub-50 completion percentage and threw four interceptions in the two games. He also did not throw a touchdown while totaling fewer than 300 yards. Some believe that this, along with the waning use of the read option, is a sign that Kaepernick will no longer be the super-productive stud that helped to lead his team to Super Bowl XLVII in a way that Alex Smith could’ve only dreamed of doing.
Such beliefs are nothing more than an overreaction. While Kaepernick’s troubles in Seattle were nothing new for surprising, that doesn’t mean his uncharacteristic flop to the Colts should be indicative of anything for the future other than the rare blips that great quarterbacks occasionally experience. In fact, the loss Sunday marked Kaepernick’s first start against a non-divisional foe in which he put up a passer rating less than 90. Note that this ninth start outside of the NFC West.
In fact, until the egg he laid last Sunday, all of the third-year quarterback’s struggle came in divisional games. The splits for his starts are quite astonishing, when you compare his divisional starts and non-divisional starts.
Table 1: Colin Kaepernick’s Starts
| Opponent | Outcome | C-A-Yds-TD-INT | Rating | YPPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W11, 2012 v. Chicago | W 32-7 | 16-23-243-2-0 | 133.06 | 11.03 |
| W12, 2012 at New Orleans | W 31-21 | 16-25-231-1-1 | 90.58 | 12.10 |
| W13, 2012 at St. Louis | L 13-16 (ot) | 21-32-208-0-0 | 83.85 | 26.08 |
| W14, 2012 v. Miami | W 27-13 | 18-23-185-0-0 | 100.18 | 11.89 |
| W15, 2012 at New England | W 41-34 | 14-25-221-4-1 | 108.50 | 9.46 |
| W16, 2012 at Seattle | L 13-42 | 19-36-244-1-1 | 71.99 | 24.08 |
| W17, 2012 v. Arizona | W 27-13 | 16-28-276-2-0 | 114.58 | 10.30 |
| Div, 2012 v. Green Bay | W 45-31 | 17-31-263-2-1 | 91.20 | 12.87 |
| NFCCG, 2012 at Atlanta | W 28-24 | 16-21-233-1-0 | 127.68 | 13.32 |
| SB XLVII v. Baltimore | L 31-34 | 16-28-302-1-1 | 91.67 | 15.10 |
| W1, 2013 v. Green Bay | W 34-28 | 27-39-412-3-0 | 129.43 | 14.53 |
| W2, 2013 at Seattle | L 3-29 | 13-28-127-0-3 | 20.09 | 69.00 |
| W3, 2013 v. Indianapolis | L 7-27 | 13-27-150-0-1 | 49.92 | 36.29 |
NOTE: YPPS = team offensive yards per point scored.
As you can see, three of Colin Kaepernick’s four worst starts came against teams in the NFC West. What this makes is an interesting split that screams regression. Here’s a look at his career numbers against the division and against the rest:
- Against NFC West: 80-of-143 for 972 yards, 3 TD and 4 INT (72.36 passer rating)
- Against the rest: 112-of-174 for 1566 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT (105.20 passer rating)
- Playoffs (no NFC West opponents): 49-of-80 for 798 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT (100.94 passer rating)
- Overall regular season: 192-of-317 for 2538 yards, 13 YD and 7 INT (90.39 passer rating)
Here’s one big reason why one cannot completely trust stats until the sample size is legitimate. The passer rating differential from division to non-division for Kaepernick stands at a ridiculous 32.84 for his career. Part of this has to do with teams struggling immensely with the road option last year. Part of this has to do with two of his four divisional starts coming at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, with that incredible Seahawks defense running wild. Part of this has to do with the NFC West being able to better scout the rest of the 49ers, limiting the options for Kaepernick. However, we still need to see the big picture develop longer.
To get a better understanding, let’s compare Kaepernick to some notable quarterbacks who’ve played exclusively for one team. First, we’ll choose the three best statistical quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Tony Romo. Second, we’ll add the four-ring Class of 2004 to the mix: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. Finally, to add in a few similar players to Kaepernick in terms of sample size, we’ll add in some of the young guns for the NFL Draft first round: Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. We should have a better understanding with 10 others quarterbacks to compare.
Table 2: Passer Rating Differential, by Splits (regular season only)
| Player | Overall PR | Div PR | Non-Div PR | PR Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick, SF | 90.39 | 72.36 | 105.20 | -18.03 / 14.81 / 32.84 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | 104.94 | 110.08 | 102.43 | 5.14 / -2.51 / -7.65 |
| Tom Brady, NE | 96.27 | 95.73 | 96.57 | -0.54 / 0.30 / 0.84 |
| Tony Romo, DAL | 95.91 | 90.48 | 98.93 | -5.43 / 3.02 / 8.45 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 82.41 | 84.14 | 81.33 | 1.73 / -1.08 / -2.81 |
| Philip Rivers, SD | 95.12 | 91.88 | 96.87 | -3.24 / 1.75 / 4.99 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | 92.36 | 87.60 | 94.92 | -4.76 / 2.56 / 7.32 |
| Matt Stafford, DET | 83.84 | 79.46 | 86.50 | -4.38 / 2.66 / 7.04 |
| Sam Bradford, SL | 78.27 | 77.48 | 78.73 | -0.79 / 0.46 / 1.25 |
| Cam Newton, CAR | 85.86 | 89.17 | 84.35 | 3.31 / -1.51 / -4.82 |
| Andy Dalton, CIN | 84.78 | 78.11 | 88.79 | -6.67 / 4.01 / 10.68 |
NOTE: PR Diff = Passer Rating Differential for the three splits. The first split: Divisional Passer Rating minus Overall Passer Rating… the second split: Non-Divisional Passer Rating minus Overall Passer Rating… the third split: Non-Divisional Passer Rating minus Divisional Passer Rating
If Colin Kaepernick wasn’t in the picture, Andy Dalton would be the outlier of the bunch. The differential for Kaepernick’s division to non-division split is three times greater than that of Dalton’s. It should be quite obvious that Kaepernick’s divisional passer rating is unattainably low. More so, expect some regression in games outside of the division. That dud against the Colts will happen again, but it just won’t as frequent as some think it will be.
By the way, what would Kaepernick’s numbers look like without the two losses in Seattle? He would own a 92.85 passer rating against the NFC West and an overall 101.34 passer rating. That differential would still be a bit high, but that would be expected for somebody with fewer than 16 starts. Note that Kaepernick has thrown more interceptions (4) in 64 attempts against Seattle than interceptions (3) in 253 attempts against all other teams in the NFL. That’s particularly telling of two bad games skewing otherwise glorious play.
Let’s just say that Kaepernick continues to hold his 90.39 passer rating. Expect that passer rating to go up at least 10 points against the NFC West, while it should go down at least 10 points against the rest of the NFL. What better time than for it to start tonight in St. Louis? The Rams allowed a terrible 114.66 passer rating to their opponents through three games, which ranks 30th in the league.
During my season predictions, I accounted a season split between these two teams primarily because I expected both defenses to be strong. With a strong defense, perhaps the Rams would have the advantage at home in what can be expected to be a sloppy Thursday night game. However, because of the poor play so far, some of the sloppy play will lead to big offensive plays for San Francisco. It can’t be expected that Sam Bradford, who’s only 3-17-1 as a starter when the Rams allow 24+ points, will keep up with Kaepernick.
Expect Kaepernick to bounce back, rather than continue a downward spiral. Contrary to my preseason prediction, I choose the 49ers to win in St. Louis tonight, with Colin Kaepernick putting up 100+ passer rating. Maybe, this will kill some of the doom-and-gloom talk.