Generally speaking, the NFL postseason experiences its most choatic and unexpected outcomes during the Divisional Round. In recent years, we’ve seen upset like the Giants over Packers in 2011. We’ve seen overtime thrillers, like Ravens over Broncos in 2012. We’ve even seen controversy reign supreme, like Packers over Cowboys in 2014. In many ways, this is the type of weekend that could make or break our chances to winning the Pick’em competition, depending on who our Four Postseason Factors pick to win.
This year’s Divisional Round gives us no promises, as eight of the top nine in the TABRankings take the field. We have two higher-ranked teams playing on the road, both of which reside in the AFC. Meanwhile, we have a top four team play as the “underdog” on the road in one NFC match-up, and a blowout rematch in the other NFC match-up. Take no team for granted. After all, the lowest-ranked remaining team is also the AFC’s top seed. It’s been the type of year in the NFL, with every playoff team tallying at least one red flag in our playoff team precedence study. Strangely enough, despite all that, the experts are heavily favoring the home team. Go figure.
We continue to piece everything together from the Four Postseason Factors study for 2015 and put it into the context of each individual playoff match-up. Today, we focus on the first two games of the Divisional Round.
Note that our points system is different for the postseason. The breakdown for the postseason is as followed:
- Wild Card Weekend (6 points): It seems fair to have these games account for double the value of the regular season Games of the Week. Also, with 24 points for this week, it accounts for most of the average point value per week (27).
- Divisional Round (6 points): This round involves an equal game total to Wild Card Weekend, so we’ll stick with the same point total. While these games are of higher quality, we don’t want the weekly point total going any higher.
- Conference Championships (9 points): These games should obviously account for more points, with the Super Bowl on the line. However, we don’t want to make each game worth 12 points. That puts too much value on a game that’s not for all the marbles.
- Super Bowl XLIX (12 points): Therefore, this game will count for 12 points. This seems quite fair, as it’s the league championship. This will give us 510 possible points for the entire season. The Super Bowl will account for more than two percent of the total points.
Before we reveal our predictions, we have just one more reminder of what the Four Postseason Factors address. Team balance addresses the quality and efficiency of a team over six different areas of the game. Coaching quality addresses the ability of staff to instill discipline, motivate in key situations, strategize gameplans and use playoff experience. The TABRankings address the overall efficiency of a team, with extra weight to more important statistical aspects of the game. Playoff team precedence address how a team fit into the “normal” picture of a Super Bowl team, based on different factors from the season. These four factors make a winning formula in our eyes.
(2) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 + 1-0) at (6) New England Patriots (12-4 + 0-0)
Divisional Weekend begins with a barn-burner of a match-up, as the Kansas City Chiefs rocketed up to second in our rankings after a 30-0 trouncing of the Houston Texans. This marked the 27th playoff victory of 30+ points since the NFL-AFL merger. Those teams own just a 10-11 record in the following postseason game, while the five other outcomes occurred in the Super Bowl. (Note: Only once did a playoff match-up feature both teams coming off a 30+ point win, and that was the 2009 NFC Championship Game.) With this in mind, was the Chiefs dominant win merely a smokescreen? Or can the winners of 11 consecutive games use this last win as momentum to upset the Patriots, who aim for Tom Brady’s 10th conference championship appearance in 14 tries?
Chiefs balance: 18.2 pass O (18th), 2.2 run O (1st), 4.0 pass D (3rd), 11.8 run D (t-10th), 7.8 scoring (4th), 8.8 tested (6th)
Patriots balance: 11.4 pass D (10th), 8.8 run D (8th), 6.4 pass O (4th), 12.2 run O (t-10th), 6.4 scoring (3rd), 5.9 tested (2nd)
Right off the bat, we can see how this match-up is quite juicy. The biggest struggle of the game will be between the Tom Brady-led New England pass offense and the big-play style Kansas City pass defense. Including last week, the Chiefs’ pass defense forced 31 turnovers in 17 games. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ pass offense committed only nine in 16 games. It’s strength versus strength, something which will certainly affect scoring efficiency. Both teams are assets in that area as well, so that winning the passing battle would go a long way. Besides that, we expect Kansas City to thrive on the ground, albeit against a run defense that improved vastly since Week 1. Meanwhile, we know that Patriots are more likely to handle the playoff atmosphere well than the Chiefs. In the end, this is a hard-earned push.
Coaching quality: Patriots 1.25 average rank, Chiefs 6.00 average rank
As we mentioned during our coaching analysis, Bill Belichick is pretty much unmatched in the AFC. The Chiefs having the second-best coaching crew in the AFC playoffs simply won’t matter. New England’s best advantage comes in the form of game management. Very rarely do the Patriots screw up a crunch-time situation in managing the clock (e.g.: Super Bowl XLIX, which was negated by the game-sealing interception). Meanwhile, Andy Reid’s made it happen time after time, with the most recent one occurring in Week 2 against Denver. One doesn’t even need to imagine what would happen if these two came down the wire, because there’s Super Bowl XXXIX.
TABRankings: Chiefs 541.17 points (Super Bowl contender), Patriots 458.72 points (Super Bowl contender)
We left Wednesday’s TABRankings analysis wondering how we would handle this situation. Are we going to give the Chiefs the advantage for this factor, given the 82.45-point disparity? Are we going to consider this a push, given that both teams were initially considered Super Bowl contenders during this factor’s analysis last week? Note that if you subtract this point disparity from New England’s total, it would send the Patriots below the Vikings (the worst of the 10 teams who are at least a half standard deviation away from the TABR mean). This point disparity actually closely reflects one half standard deviation (approximately 85.79 points). Because the Patriots are closer to being an easy one-and-done team than reaching the Chiefs, we give the advantage to the Chiefs.
Chiefs precedence: two red flags, no amber flags (six points, 22nd percentile)
Patriots precedence: one red flag, no amber flags (three points, 47th percentile)
It’s apropos to mention now that if the Chiefs had only held on to defeat the lowly Bears at home in Week 5, they would have earned home-field advantage with a 12-4 overall record (and 10-2 conference record). Kansas City held a 17-3 lead that only dwindled to 17-6 until the game’s final four minutes, the Bears scored two late touchdowns to beat the Chiefs. For the sake of this match-up, that loss the difference between earning a red flag and earning an amber flag for their maximum losing streak. Because the Patriots earned four points or fewer for this factor, they are considered true Super Bowl contenders. Because the Chiefs earned six points, they are labeled fringe Super Bowl contenders. Winning that Week 5 game would’ve improved their point total to four, which would’ve brought Kansas City up to contention. Instead, the team has the disadvantage for the fourth and deciding factor.
Four Postseason Factors advantage breakdown: Patriots 2, Chiefs 1
This comes down to the slimmest of margins. However, we also can call upon the truest game-breaker for Kansas City. Alex Smith owns a 3-35-1 record as a starter when his teams allow 24+ points. Tom Brady earned his fourth win in this subset by his 14th such game. He now owns a 44-45 record as a starter in that subset. If you want to know the difference between a game manager and a true franchise-level quarterback, you can see it here. The Patriots reach 24 points to clinch their victory, and Brady astoundingly reaches his 10th conference championship in 14 tries. Prediction: New England Patriots 24, Kansas City Chiefs 16
(8) Green Bay Packers (10-6 + 1-0) at (3) Arizona Cardinals (13-3 + 0-0)
The two teams lock up again, with the Week 16 blowout win for the Cardinals still in tact. Arizona won 38-8, erasing all doubt that the team is superior to Green Bay. However, with such a fresh rematch on the docket, will the well-coached and well-quarterback Packers have the necessary adjustments in hand to make this an upset special? Remember it only takes one game to shake up the postseason picture. We’ll save the drama for the analysis, but the Four Postseason Factors (and NFL postseason history itself) suggest an upset is highly unlikely. The following shows exactly why Arizona’s previous win was so fitting of the two teams.
Packers balance: 22.4 pass O (t-23rd), 16.0 run O (16th), 7.8 pass D (9th), 21.2 run D (21st), 14.8 scoring (13th), 9.4 tested (7th)
Cardinals balance: 7.2 pass D (t-6th), 5.6 run D (2nd), 3.6 pass O (1st), 12.6 run O (t-12th), 10.2 scoring (8th), 7.9 tested (5th)
Aaron Rodgers failed to reached triple digits for passer rating in each of his last 11 games. The unit match-ups here suggests that streak will likely go to 12 games. Green Bay’s receivers have consistently struggled to get open, and facing Patrick Peterson during his best season to date. Even the Green Bay run offense is overmatched, as Arizona defends the ground attack as good as any team. If Green Bay has any chance of getting the upset, it will be because they can neutralize Carson Palmer with their strong pass defense. In the end, the advantage for this factor easily goes to the Cardinals, who can bear Green Bay in various ways.
Coaching quality: Cardinals 2.75 average rank, Packers 3.75 average rank
Bruce Arians and Mike McCarthy lead two of the most well-coached staffs in the league. While the Packers have experience recent playoff frustrations, this franchise builds home-grown talent from unlikely places as well as any. Credit McCarthy and crew for teaching those players up to their respective levels of success. Meanwhile, no coach finds a way to win close games quite as well as Arians. In fact, his crew got ranked first for “management” to prevent Bill Belichick from getting a clean sweep for this factor.
TABRankings: Cardinals 512.02 points (Super Bowl contender), Packers 408.14 points (Super Bowl pretender)
These two teams hold form to our contender-pretender classification from last week. While Green Bay did earn a strong win in Washington, it wasn’t enough to vault the Packers within range of the Cardinals. This is the only match-up with at least a 100 point disparity in the TABRankings. Chalk this up as another advantage for the home team.
Packers precedence: three red flags, two amber flags (11 points, 3rd percentile)
Cardinals precedence: one red flag*, none amber flags (three points*, 47th percentile)
Arizona’s long red flag was given because Carson Palmer is 0-2 as a starter in the postseason. In reality, one of his two losses came after he was hit low during his first pass of the afternoon against the Steelers. He had about as much to do with that loss as you or us. The Cardinals unofficially would go flag-free if we only consider Palmer to be 0-1 as a postseason starter. Regardless, the Cardinals have more than enough to earn the advantage for this factor, primarily because Green Bay is so heavily flagged.
Four Postseason Factors advantage breakdown: Cardinals 3, Packers 0
Looking at the blowout rematches, it’s important to note team that home teams are 18-3 since 1990 in inter-divisional postseason rematches of a blowout game. That record is regardless of who earned the win in the regular season. If we want to specifically relate this to Arizona’s situation, home teams that earned a home blowout win own a 13-1 record with an average 14.14-point margin of victory in the postseason rematch. The only loss was suffered by the 1993 Oilers to the Joe Montana-led Chiefs. Last year, we said, “Here’s guessing Aaron Rodgers has to channel his inner Joe to win on Sunday.” That ended in an overtime loss at Seattle. It would be cool if we get such excitement again, but it’s more likely Arizona wins comfortably. Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 27, Green Bay Packers 13